The Report Card · Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Tech Rebounds to Lift the S&P 500 by 0.3% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026
We put the odds of a green S&P 500 close at 56% as chip demand outweighs healthcare earnings drag on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
Accuracy
65%
Correct
30/46
Brier score
0.238
lower is better
We got 30 of 46 calls right on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
By Category
11/13
85% accuracy
0/4
0% accuracy
9/14
64% accuracy
3/4
75% accuracy
7/11
64% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.28% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 1.58%, closing at 7688.62. Right direction, off by 1.30 percentage points on size.
Result +1.58% @ 7688.62
We said
NDX up 0.58% (57% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 0.91%, closing at 28437.17. Right direction, off by 0.33 percentage points on size.
Result +0.91% @ 28437.17
We said
DJI up 0.08% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 3.03%, closing at 53356.12. Right direction, off by 2.95 percentage points on size.
Result +3.03% @ 53356.12
We said
RUT up 0.22% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 1.58%, closing at 2856.97. Right direction, off by 1.36 percentage points on size.
Result +1.58% @ 2856.97
We said
VIX down 2.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 19.59%, closing at 16.75. Right direction, off by 17.49 percentage points on size.
Result -19.59% @ 16.75
We said
DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.34%, closing at 101.52. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.34% @ 101.52
We said
US10Y down 0.25% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y fell 1.17%, closing at 4.89. Right direction, off by 0.92 percentage points on size.
Result -1.17% @ 4.89
We said
CL down 0.65% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 7.88%, closing at 88.52. Right direction, off by 7.23 percentage points on size.
Result -7.88% @ 88.52
We said
GC up 0.24% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 3.37%, closing at 4073.20. Right direction, off by 3.13 percentage points on size.
Result +3.37% @ 4073.20
We said
SI up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 5.50%, closing at 52.31. Right direction, off by 5.15 percentage points on size.
Result +5.50% @ 52.31
We said
BTC up 0.55% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 3.67%, closing at 80182.11. Right direction, off by 3.12 percentage points on size.
Result +3.67% @ 80182.11
We said
ETH up 0.45% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 6.61%, closing at 2422.84. Right direction, off by 6.16 percentage points on size.
Result +6.61% @ 2422.84
We said
NG down 0.85% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 2.04%, closing at 2.95. We called the wrong direction.
Result +2.04% @ 2.95
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy DDOG at 220.52, take profit 246.98, cut it at 198.5
What happened
DDOG traded 186.51–207.74 and closed 188.72. It hit our 198.5 exit first — the trade lost -9.99%.
Result -9.98% @ 188.72
We said
Buy NVDA at 206.69, take profit 217.44, cut it at 198.42
What happened
NVDA traded 199.68–206.79 and closed 200.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.17%.
Result -3.17% @ 200.13
We said
Buy ETN at 391.7, take profit 420.65, cut it at 369.42
What happened
ETN traded 350.05–378.23 and closed 353.08. It hit our 369.42 exit first — the trade lost -5.69%.
Result -5.69% @ 353.08
We said
Buy ANET at 169.91, take profit 185.42, cut it at 157.97
What happened
ANET traded 177.00–188.51 and closed 178.48. The price never reached our 169.91 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 178.48
We said
Buy IBM at 250.04, take profit 263.04, cut it at 240.04
What happened
IBM traded 253.51–258.59 and closed 254.32. The price never reached our 250.04 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 254.32
We said
Short CVS at 91.41, take profit 87.87, cut it at 94.13
What happened
CVS traded 77.33–85.05 and closed 79.96. The price never reached our 91.41 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 79.96
We said
Buy UBER at 66.6, take profit 69.28, cut it at 64.54
What happened
UBER traded 67.36–72.50 and closed 69.87. The price never reached our 66.6 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 69.87
We said
Short WBD at 30.95, take profit 29.69, cut it at 31.92
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy MCK at 999.62, take profit 1037.11, cut it at 970.76
What happened
MCK traded 1005.00–1073.95 and closed 1069.44. The price never reached our 999.62 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 1069.44
We said
Short WLK at 68.47, take profit 64.68, cut it at 71.38
What happened
WLK traded 67.14–71.69 and closed 67.90. It hit our 71.38 exit first — the trade lost -4.25%.
Result -4.25% @ 67.90
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CVS Health (CVS) will underperform the healthcare sector on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said CVS would be a loser. It closed -12.53% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -12.53% @ 79.96
We said
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) will finish as one of the weakest media stocks on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said WBD would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result 0.00%
We said
Westlake (WLK) will slide following its pre-market report on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said WLK would be a loser. It closed -0.83% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -0.83% @ 67.90
We said
Kraft Heinz (KHC) will slip at least 0.8% following its morning report on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said KHC would be a loser. It closed +3.75% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result +3.75% @ 25.44
We said
Crude Oil (CL) will finish in the red on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said CL would be a loser. It closed -7.88% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -7.88% @ 88.52
We said
McDonalds (MCD) will report positive US same-store sales growth above 0.5% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Datadog (DDOG) will raise full-year revenue guidance by more than 25 million dollars on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CVS Health (CVS) will hold its full-year earnings guidance steady rather than cutting it on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Qualcomm (QCOM) will project automotive segment revenue growth above 30% year-over-year on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Qualcomm (QCOM) will gain at least 1.0% in regular trading before its report on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CVS Health (CVS) will drop at least 2.0% following pre-market results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Datadog (DDOG) will climb at least 2.5% after pre-market earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
McDonalds (MCD) will move less than 1.0% in either direction on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Uber Technologies (UBER) will rise at least 1.8% after reporting pre-market on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will advance at least 0.8% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eaton (ETN) will close in positive territory on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Arista Networks (ANET) will gain at least 1.2% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
McKesson (MCK) will gain at least 1.0% ahead of after-close earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Allstate (ALL) will hold within a 1.2% range ahead of its evening earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Snap (SNAP) will see its implied volatility exceed an 8% expected move after close on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) will drop at least 1.5% after morning earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Westlake (WLK) will decline at least 1.2% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Crude Oil (CL) futures will close below 72.00 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Crude oil inventories will show a surprise build of over 1.5 million barrels in Wednesday's EIA report on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The 10-Year Treasury yield will stay trapped between 4.18% and 4.24% throughout Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US Dollar Index will trade within 20 basis points of its open on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Russell 2000 small-cap stocks will lag large-cap tech by at least 0.3% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Qualcomm (QCOM) will trade in an intraday range wider than 3.5% around its after-close earnings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said QCOM would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.33%.
Result +5.33% @ 173.19
We said
Snap (SNAP) will see post-close trading swings greater than 7% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said SNAP would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.72%.
Result +5.72% @ 5.91
We said
CVS Health (CVS) will see early-session volatility top 3.0% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said CVS would swing hard (3%+). It moved -12.53%.
Result -12.53% @ 79.96
We said
Datadog (DDOG) will post an opening 30-minute range wider than 4% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said DDOG would swing hard (3%+). It moved -14.42%.
Result -14.42% @ 188.72
We said
Natural Gas (NG) will experience an intraday swing exceeding 3% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.04%.
Result +2.04% @ 2.95
We said
Datadog (DDOG) will be among the day's top enterprise software gainers on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said DDOG would be a winner. It closed -14.42% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -14.42% @ 188.72
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will outperform the broader S&P 500 index on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -3.17% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -3.17% @ 200.13
We said
Uber Technologies (UBER) will beat consensus quarterly bookings on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said UBER would be a winner. It closed +4.91% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result +4.91% @ 69.87
We said
Eaton (ETN) will extend Tuesday's earnings breakout on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said ETN would be a winner. It closed -9.86% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result -9.86% @ 353.08
We said
Arista Networks (ANET) will advance more than 1.0% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
What happened
We said ANET would be a winner. It closed +5.04% while the S&P 500 did +1.58%.
Result +5.04% @ 178.48
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Inflation pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
QCOM: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
QCOM came in below expectations (2.21 vs 2.2724 expected). We said beat.
We said
CVS: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
CVS came in above expectations (2.09 vs 1.667 expected). We said beat.
We said
MCD: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
MCD came in above expectations (3.57 vs 3.4184 expected). We said beat.
We said
DDOG: we said beat (75% odds of a beat)
What happened
DDOG came in above expectations (0.81 vs 0.6662 expected). We said beat.
We said
UBER: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
UBER came in below expectations (0.25 vs 0.9838 expected). We said beat.
We said
ALL: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
ALL came in above expectations (8.99 vs 6.1822 expected). We said beat.
We said
COR: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
COR came in in line with expectations (4.66 vs 4.6255 expected). We said beat.
We said
MCK: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
MCK came in above expectations (9.93 vs 9.6305 expected). We said beat.
We said
MET: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
MET came in above expectations (2.43 vs 2.3159 expected). We said beat.
We said
PAYP: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
PAYP came in above expectations (27.02 vs 26.2337 expected). We said beat.
We said
PFGC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
PFGC came in in line with expectations (1.32 vs 1.3079 expected). We said beat.
We said
CI earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
COP earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CAH earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HUM earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CHTR earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
PAGP earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.