Methodology

The Day Before is a probabilistic forecast of what tomorrow's US market session is most likely to do. It is published once each weekday, at 4:00 PM Eastern, immediately after the closing bell.

Every number on the site is an estimate — a probability paired with a confidence score, and an honest explanation of what the model is assuming. Nothing here is a trading signal. Nothing here is advice.

Every forecast is scored the day after it is published. The performance page shows how well the model has been calibrated over time. If you leave this site trusting our honesty about our track record more than the predictions themselves, we've done our job.