Top 15 Predictions
Ranked by conviction
- 01
Oracle (ORCL) shares will open up at least 5% on Thursday.
Oracle's earnings beat and optimistic guidance on cloud growth, especially in AI-related infrastructure, will be well-received by the market.
Why it matters: This signals robust enterprise spending on cloud infrastructure and AI, potentially lifting other software and cloud service providers.
64%
- 02
Adobe (ADBE) will forecast Q4 revenue above analyst consensus.
Adobe's strong position in creative and experience cloud solutions, coupled with AI integration, should support an upbeat outlook.
Why it matters: Strong Adobe guidance reinforces the theme of resilient enterprise software spending and boosts confidence in the overall tech sector's outlook.
61%
- 03
The Nasdaq 100 will close above its 50-day moving average.
Positive momentum from Oracle's earnings and broader tech strength will push the index higher, reinforcing its uptrend.
Why it matters: This indicates a strengthening technical trend for growth stocks, attracting more institutional capital and potentially extending the market rally.
61%
- 04
Shares of Workday (WDAY) will rise at least 1.5% on Thursday.
Oracle's strong cloud performance implies healthy enterprise software demand, benefitting peers like Workday.
Why it matters: A positive reaction to Oracle's cloud numbers often spills over to other enterprise software companies, suggesting broad strength in business IT budgets.
57%
- 05
The S&P 500 Technology sector will outperform the broader S&P 500 by at least 0.3%.
Oracle's results will disproportionately boost the technology sector, causing it to lead the broader market higher.
Why it matters: This confirms that technology remains the leading sector, with strong earnings and growth prospects driving market performance.
63%
- 06
The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury will rise by at least 2 basis points.
Improved equity market sentiment and anticipation of strong PPI data will push bond yields marginally higher.
Why it matters: A slight increase in yields can reflect optimism about economic growth, but if too rapid, it could create headwinds for growth stocks in the coming days.
56%
- 07
Shares of Salesforce (CRM) will trade up by at least 1%.
Oracle's strength in enterprise cloud will suggest a favorable environment for other major cloud providers like Salesforce.
Why it matters: Positive sentiment for Oracle's cloud services typically indicates a strong market for business applications, which is a tailwind for Salesforce.
55%
- 08
The Russell 2000 will finish the session in positive territory.
General risk-on sentiment from tech strength will provide a mild lift to smaller companies, even without specific catalysts.
Why it matters: A green close for small caps would signal improving investor confidence beyond just mega-cap tech, suggesting broader market participation.
54%
- 09
The price of WTI Crude Oil (CL) will trade above $78 per barrel at close.
Persistent geopolitical tensions and stable demand forecasts will keep crude prices firm.
Why it matters: This indicates ongoing demand strength and geopolitical supply concerns, which could support energy stocks but also raise inflation concerns.
51%
- 10
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade below 104.80 by the end of the session.
Improved risk sentiment due to tech strength will lead to a modest retreat in the safe-haven dollar.
Why it matters: A slightly weaker dollar can be supportive for commodities and US multinational earnings, easing cost pressures for global operations.
54%
- 11
Copart (CPRT) will report better-than-expected revenue for Q4.
Copart's business benefits from increased vehicle sales and insurance claims, supporting a revenue beat.
Why it matters: Strong revenue for Copart suggests continued activity in the used vehicle market and insurance sector, indicating underlying economic stability.
58%
- 12
Shares of Flowserve (FLS) will close higher after its earnings report.
Flowserve's diversified industrial client base should allow it to report stable results, leading to a modest positive market reaction.
Why it matters: A positive reaction to Flowserve's results could signal healthy capital expenditure by industrial clients, indicating business investment is holding up.
56%
- 13
LOVE SACS (LOVE) will report Q2 EPS above consensus estimates.
LOVE SACS has a history of meeting or exceeding expectations due to consistent brand appeal.
Why it matters: A beat from LOVE SACS indicates resilient consumer spending in niche retail, suggesting parts of the discretionary sector are still performing well.
57%
- 14
The Energy sector will end the day with a gain of at least 0.5%.
Stable oil prices and a generally bullish market tone will give energy stocks a modest lift.
Why it matters: An upturn in energy stocks, supported by higher oil prices, can indicate confidence in global economic activity and provide diversification from tech.
54%
- 15
IBEX Holdings (IBEX) will report Q4 earnings per share (EPS) that meets or exceeds analyst expectations.
IBEX has shown consistent execution in its BPO services, making an in-line or beat on EPS likely.
Why it matters: A solid performance from IBEX suggests stable demand for business process outsourcing and customer engagement services, indicating corporate confidence.
61%
Expected Moves at Tomorrow's Open
How much each asset is expected to rise or fall from today's close to tomorrow's open
| Asset | Expected | ↑ Prob | ↓ Prob | Range | Conf. | Biggest Risk | Biggest Tailwind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | +0.40% | 56% | 44% | 7618.99 / 7714.82 | 75 | Softer Oracle guidance | Robust enterprise tech spending |
Nasdaq 100 | +0.60% | 57% | 43% | 29427.89 / 29768.27 | 77 | Disappointing Oracle cloud growth | Strong Oracle AI infrastructure comments |
Dow | +0.30% | 55% | 45% | 52143.77 / 52931.84 | 70 | Negative reaction to Oracle results | Broad market improvement from tech strength |
Russell 2000 | +0.20% | 53% | 47% | 2901.46 / 2952.69 | 65 | Yields moving higher on tech strength | General uplift in risk sentiment |
VIX | -2.50% | 41% | 59% | 15.93 / 16.17 | 70 | Unexpected macro headline | Orderly market close higher |
Dollar | -0.10% | 47% | 53% | 97.74 / 99.71 | 60 | Stronger than expected PPI data | Improved risk appetite |
10Y Treasury Yield | +0.50% | 53% | 47% | 4.82 / 4.90 | 65 | Weak PPI data | Stronger equity market perception |
Oil | +0.50% | 51% | 49% | 96.20 / 98.39 | 55 | Unexpected inventory build | Ongoing tight supply narrative |
Gold | -0.30% | 49% | 51% | 4381.78 / 4474.77 | 58 | Weaker dollar | Stronger yields |
Silver | -0.40% | 48% | 52% | 66.85 / 68.31 | 57 | Weaker dollar | Stronger yields |
Bitcoin | +0.30% | 51% | 49% | 77645.39 / 79412.28 | 55 | Risk-off sentiment after Oracle | General risk-on market tone |
Ethereum | +0.40% | 51% | 49% | 2452.32 / 2508.12 | 55 | Risk-off sentiment after Oracle | General risk-on market tone |
Natural Gas | -0.80% | 47% | 53% | 2.76 / 2.81 | 60 | Unexpected weather event | Continued mild weather outlook |
Sector Heatmap
Bullish probability by sector
Each tile shows the model's estimated probability that the sector finishes tomorrow's session green. Color intensity scales with the distance from a coin-flip.
Technology
68%
Bullish tilt
Financials
55%
Bullish tilt
Energy
52%
Bullish tilt
Healthcare
58%
Bullish tilt
Utilities
45%
Bearish tilt
Consumer Discretionary
60%
Bullish tilt
Consumer Staples
53%
Bullish tilt
Industrials
57%
Bullish tilt
Communication Services
65%
Bullish tilt
Materials
50%
Bullish tilt
Real Estate
48%
Bearish tilt