The Report Card · Monday, August 3, 2026
Yield Curve Inversion Deepens Ahead of Manufacturing Data
The persistent inversion of the two-year to ten-year Treasury yield curve will continue to weigh on equity sentiment as upcoming manufacturing PMIs confirm decelerating growth, pushing the S&P 500 lower on Monday.
Accuracy
38%
Correct
22/58
Brier score
0.289
lower is better
We got 22 of 58 calls right on Monday, August 3, 2026.
By Category
7/13
54% accuracy
2/10
20% accuracy
11/25
44% accuracy
0/5
0% accuracy
2/5
40% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.80%, actual +1.48%.
Result +1.48% @ 7600.50
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.70%, actual +1.78%.
Result +1.78% @ 28776.80
We said
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What happened
Predicted -0.90%, actual +1.32%.
Result +1.32% @ 53178.41
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What happened
Predicted -1.20%, actual +1.73%.
Result +1.73% @ 2981.91
We said
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What happened
Predicted +3.50%, actual -0.81%.
Result -0.81% @ 15.86
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What happened
Predicted +0.30%, actual +0.15%.
Result +0.15% @ 99.95
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What happened
Predicted -0.05%, actual -1.24%.
Result -1.24% @ 4.69
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.50%, actual -5.37%.
Result -5.37% @ 80.12
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.70%, actual +1.53%.
Result +1.53% @ 4111.00
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.90%, actual +1.25%.
Result +1.25% @ 58.31
We said
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What happened
Predicted -1.80%, actual +0.62%.
Result +0.62% @ 63875.98
We said
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What happened
Predicted -2.00%, actual -0.62%.
Result -0.62% @ 1870.88
We said
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What happened
Predicted +0.50%, actual +0.69%.
Result +0.69% @ 2.77
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Stop 44.24 hit — -0.41%.
Result -0.41% @ 44.36
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What happened
Stop 76.68 hit — -0.82%.
Result -0.81% @ 77.06
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What happened
Stop 820.46 hit — -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 830.03
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What happened
Target 153.12 hit — +1.50%.
Result +1.50% @ 155.06
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What happened
Stop 370.22 hit — -0.40%.
Result -0.40% @ 371.71
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What happened
Stop 482.83 hit — -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 484.64
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What happened
Stop 228.42 hit — -0.41%.
Result -0.41% @ 229.16
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What happened
Closed 51.01 for -0.59%.
Result -0.59% @ 51.01
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What happened
Stop 381.98 hit — -0.38%.
Result -0.38% @ 382.43
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What happened
Target 101.73 hit — +2.50%.
Result +2.50% @ 102.78
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
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Unscored — text prediction (resolve manually).
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DUK closed -0.92%.
Result -0.92% @ 124.28
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What happened
NEE closed -0.43%.
Result -0.43% @ 86.55
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What happened
KMB closed -1.60%.
Result -1.60% @ 107.56
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What happened
PG closed +0.33%.
Result +0.33% @ 144.97
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What happened
GD closed -0.26%.
Result -0.26% @ 382.43
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What happened
CL closed -5.37%.
Result -5.37% @ 80.12
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What happened
MO closed -0.10%.
Result -0.10% @ 68.26
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What happened
AMT closed -0.21%.
Result -0.21% @ 173.00
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What happened
SPG closed -0.09%.
Result -0.09% @ 229.16
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What happened
VZ closed +1.17%.
Result +1.18% @ 47.36
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What happened
CAT closed +1.87%.
Result +1.87% @ 830.03
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What happened
DE closed +2.09%.
Result +2.09% @ 605.06
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What happened
XOM closed -0.24%.
Result -0.24% @ 155.06
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What happened
CVX closed -1.85%.
Result -1.85% @ 193.18
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What happened
AMD closed +1.78%.
Result +1.78% @ 484.64
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What happened
F closed -1.70%.
Result -1.70% @ 14.43
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What happened
GM closed -1.33%.
Result -1.33% @ 87.68
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What happened
ET closed -0.39%.
Result -0.39% @ 20.28
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What happened
MPC closed -2.98%.
Result -2.98% @ 307.03
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UAL closed +5.82%.
Result +5.82% @ 128.39
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What happened
SPG closed -0.09%.
Result -0.09% @ 229.16
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BYND closed +8.20%.
Result +8.20% @ 0.61
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CCL closed +3.34%.
Result +3.34% @ 28.74
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RIOT closed +6.20%.
Result +6.20% @ 21.42
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What happened
PTON closed +0.94%.
Result +0.94% @ 6.45
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What happened
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Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.48%).
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Called mixed; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called bearish; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.48%).
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What happened
Called mixed; SPX up (+1.48%).
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
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Called miss (40% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.14 vs est 0.0952).
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Called beat (50% beat); actual beat (EPS 1.62 vs est 1.5817).
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 2.74 vs est 2.2447).
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What happened
Actual EPS not yet posted.
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What happened
Called miss (40% beat); actual miss (EPS -0.8 vs est 0).
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What happened
Called miss (45% beat); actual beat (EPS 0.38 vs est 0.3348).
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What happened
Not yet reported.
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Not yet reported.
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Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.