← Edition for Thursday, November 12, 2026

The Report Card · Thursday, November 12, 2026

Cisco and Applied Materials Lift Tech on Thursday, November 12, 2026

We put the odds of a green S&P 500 close on Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 61% as enterprise spending holds up.

Accuracy

42%

Correct

22/52

Brier score

0.272

lower is better

We got 22 of 52 calls right on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

By Category

ForecastsF

5/13

38% accuracy

TradesD

3/9

33% accuracy

PredictionsC

5/9

56% accuracy

DriversD

2/6

33% accuracy

EarningsD

7/15

47% accuracy

Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened

We said

CL down 0.65% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 2.92%, closing at 89.06. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.92% @ 89.06

Wrong

We said

SPX up 0.42% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.35%, closing at 7592.40. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.35% @ 7592.40

Wrong

We said

NDX up 0.68% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.30%, closing at 28289.19. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.30% @ 28289.19

Wrong

We said

DJI up 0.24% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.36%, closing at 52297.09. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.36% @ 52297.09

Wrong

We said

RUT up 0.31% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 1.65%, closing at 2799.43. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.65% @ 2799.43

Wrong

We said

VIX down 2.80% (45% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 7.43%, closing at 18.79. We called the wrong direction.

Result +7.43% @ 18.79

Wrong

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.26%, closing at 103.18. Right direction, off by 0.21 percentage points on size.

Result +0.26% @ 103.17

Right

We said

US10Y up 0.15% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 2.10%, closing at 5.10. Right direction, off by 1.95 percentage points on size.

Result +2.10% @ 5.10

Right

We said

GC down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 3.03%, closing at 3879.20. Right direction, off by 2.83 percentage points on size.

Result -3.03% @ 3879.20

Right

We said

SI down 0.35% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 3.78%, closing at 49.92. Right direction, off by 3.43 percentage points on size.

Result -3.78% @ 49.92

Right

We said

BTC up 0.45% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 3.47%, closing at 71400.95. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.47% @ 71400.95

Wrong

We said

ETH up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 2.03%, closing at 2014.09. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.03% @ 2014.09

Wrong

We said

NG up 0.85% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 3.92%, closing at 3.34. Right direction, off by 3.07 percentage points on size.

Result +3.92% @ 3.34

Right

Trades — what we said vs. what happened

We said

Buy AMAT at 395.08, take profit 436.8, cut it at 362.98

What happened

AMAT traded 376.10–397.20 and closed 380.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.58%.

Result -3.58% @ 380.95

Wrong

We said

Buy CSCO at 100.76, take profit 107.16, cut it at 95.84

What happened

CSCO traded 99.41–103.18 and closed 102.01. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.24%.

Result +1.24% @ 102.01

Right

We said

Buy IBM at 248.22, take profit 259.07, cut it at 239.87

What happened

IBM traded 244.37–248.77 and closed 244.68. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.43%.

Result -1.43% @ 244.68

Wrong

We said

Buy NVDA at 173.73, take profit 188.58, cut it at 162.31

What happened

NVDA traded 148.80–167.14 and closed 166.19. It hit our 162.31 exit first — the trade lost -6.57%.

Result -6.57% @ 166.19

Wrong

We said

Buy AVGO at 345.22, take profit 374.22, cut it at 322.91

What happened

AVGO traded 354.72–369.82 and closed 364.36. The price never reached our 345.22 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 364.36

No call

We said

Buy MSFT at 521.13, take profit 549.58, cut it at 499.24

What happened

MSFT traded 520.02–529.61 and closed 523.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.36%.

Result +0.36% @ 523.00

Right

We said

Buy TDG at 1245, take profit 1313.23, cut it at 1192.55

What happened

TDG traded 1201.82–1244.00 and closed 1204.42. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.26%.

Result -3.26% @ 1204.41

Wrong

We said

Buy LLY at 1437.29, take profit 1521.37, cut it at 1372.61

What happened

LLY traded 1429.23–1460.00 and closed 1430.74. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.46%.

Result -0.46% @ 1430.74

Wrong

We said

Buy STNE at 7.85, take profit 8.79, cut it at 7.06

What happened

STNE traded 7.59–7.94 and closed 7.72. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.66%.

Result -1.66% @ 7.72

Wrong

We said

Buy ARCO at 6.94, take profit 7.38, cut it at 6.6

What happened

ARCO traded 6.88–7.18 and closed 6.99. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.72%.

Result +0.72% @ 6.99

Right

Predictions — what we said vs. what happened

We said

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) will finish lower on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What happened

We said CSIQ would be a loser. It closed -1.28% while the S&P 500 did -0.35%.

Result -1.28% @ 10.04

Right

We said

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will underperform the Energy sector on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What happened

We said OXY would be a loser. It closed +2.04% while the S&P 500 did -0.35%.

Result +2.04% @ 58.41

Wrong

We said

Plug Power (PLUG) will drop at least 2.0% on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What happened

We said PLUG would be a loser. It closed -9.19% while the S&P 500 did -0.35%.

Result -9.19% @ 1.24

Right

—

We said

Arcos Dorados (ARCO) will beat consensus earnings per share expectations by at least 5% on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

What happened