The Report Card · Wednesday, November 11, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.3% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Enterprise hardware demand offsets energy weakness on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 with a 54% green close probability.
Accuracy
68%
Correct
25/37
Brier score
0.242
lower is better
We got 25 of 37 calls right on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
By Category
9/13
69% accuracy
4/7
57% accuracy
6/8
75% accuracy
3/4
75% accuracy
3/5
60% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.32% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 1.31%, closing at 7619.38. Right direction, off by 0.99 percentage points on size.
Result +1.31% @ 7619.38
We said
NDX up 0.45% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 2.28%, closing at 28374.25. Right direction, off by 1.83 percentage points on size.
Result +2.28% @ 28374.25
We said
DJI up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 0.49%, closing at 52486.49. Right direction, off by 0.29 percentage points on size.
Result +0.49% @ 52486.49
We said
RUT up 0.15% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.87%, closing at 2846.03. Right direction, off by 0.72 percentage points on size.
Result +0.87% @ 2846.03
We said
VIX down 2.10% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 9.61%, closing at 17.59. Right direction, off by 7.51 percentage points on size.
Result -9.61% @ 17.59
We said
DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.69%, closing at 102.93. Right direction, off by 0.67 percentage points on size.
Result +0.69% @ 102.93
We said
US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.30%, closing at 5.00. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.
Result +0.30% @ 5.00
We said
CL down 0.85% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 0.42%, closing at 86.40. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.42% @ 86.40
We said
GC up 0.25% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 0.98%, closing at 3990.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.98% @ 3990.70
We said
SI up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 1.21%, closing at 51.72. Right direction, off by 0.86 percentage points on size.
Result +1.21% @ 51.72
We said
BTC down 0.40% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 1.24%, closing at 74635.91. We called the wrong direction.
Result +1.24% @ 74635.91
We said
ETH down 0.65% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 1.38%, closing at 2078.46. We called the wrong direction.
Result +1.38% @ 2078.46
We said
NG down 0.50% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 1.55%, closing at 3.24. Right direction, off by 1.05 percentage points on size.
Result -1.55% @ 3.25
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy AVGO at 331.98, take profit 360.1, cut it at 310.36
What happened
AVGO traded 344.32–356.85 and closed 345.22. The price never reached our 331.98 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 345.22
We said
Buy TDG at 1225.54, take profit 1292.45, cut it at 1174.07
What happened
TDG traded 1198.21–1248.57 and closed 1244.80. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.57%.
Result +1.57% @ 1244.80
We said
Buy CSCO at 98.15, take profit 104.5, cut it at 93.27
What happened
CSCO traded 99.90–102.30 and closed 100.76. The price never reached our 98.15 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 100.76
We said
Buy MSFT at 533.16, take profit 561.26, cut it at 511.57
What happened
MSFT traded 518.50–534.76 and closed 521.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.26%.
Result -2.26% @ 521.13
We said
Buy AMAT at 372.53, take profit 414.48, cut it at 340.26
What happened
AMAT traded 381.75–404.71 and closed 395.08. The price never reached our 372.53 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 395.08
We said
Buy IBM at 244.53, take profit 256.54, cut it at 235.3
What happened
IBM traded 242.88–249.31 and closed 248.14. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.48%.
Result +1.48% @ 248.14
We said
Buy LLY at 1432.29, take profit 1519.37, cut it at 1365.33
What happened
LLY traded 1414.77–1440.35 and closed 1437.76. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.38%.
Result +0.38% @ 1437.76
We said
Buy AMZN at 270.87, take profit 288.21, cut it at 257.53
What happened
AMZN traded 265.62–274.87 and closed 266.17. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.74%.
Result -1.74% @ 266.17
We said
Short OXY at 56.9, take profit 53.61, cut it at 59.43
What happened
OXY traded 56.67–57.53 and closed 57.16. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.46%.
Result -0.46% @ 57.16
We said
Short PLUG at 1.36, take profit 1.2, cut it at 1.5
What happened
PLUG traded 1.35–1.40 and closed 1.36. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.37%.
Result +0.37% @ 1.35
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will decline at least 0.8% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said OXY would be a loser. It closed +0.46% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result +0.46% @ 57.16
We said
Plug Power (PLUG) will close down at least 2.5% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said PLUG would be a loser. It closed -1.09% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%.
Result -1.09% @ 1.35
We said
Barnes Group (B) will lag industrial peer benchmarks on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said B would be a loser. It closed -1.59% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%.
Result -1.59% @ 39.06
We said
Technology hardware stocks will beat software peers by more than 0.5% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Energy sector exchange-traded funds will decline despite flat oil futures on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 1.0% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Cisco Systems (CSCO) will gain at least 0.5% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 ahead of earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Applied Materials (AMAT) will finish green on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will rise at least 0.4% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will outperform the S&P 500 index on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.6% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
TransDigm Group (TDG) will gain at least 0.8% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
NIO (NIO) will move more than 3.5% in either direction on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Corteva (CTVA) will trade within a 2.0% range on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 ahead of after-close earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Exxon Mobil (XOM) will underperform the S&P 500 on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) will close green on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will advance at least 0.5% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will finish red on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund will close up at least 0.4% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Gold futures (GC) will close within 0.75% of the opening mark on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Russell 2000 index closing direction on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 remains a near coin-flip.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Natural gas futures (NG) directional settlement on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 carries balanced odds.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
NIO (NIO) will record an intraday trading range exceeding 5.0% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said NIO would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.22%.
Result -1.22% @ 3.24
We said
Rumble (RUM) will see an intraday high-to-low spread greater than 6.0% on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said RUM would swing hard (3%+). It moved +16.63%.
Result +16.63% @ 5.96
We said
Nu Holdings (NU) will fluctuate across a 4.0% range on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 ahead of Thursday earnings.
What happened
We said NU would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.24%.
Result +2.23% @ 12.35
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will rank among the leading semiconductor gainers on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said AVGO would be a winner. It closed +3.99% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%.
Result +3.99% @ 345.22
We said
TransDigm Group (TDG) will finish in the top quartile of industrial stocks on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said TDG would be a winner. It closed +1.57% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%.
Result +1.57% @ 1244.80
We said
Cisco Systems (CSCO) will post a positive session return on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
What happened
We said CSCO would be a winner. It closed +2.66% while the S&P 500 did +1.31%.
Result +2.66% @ 100.76
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. That went against the call.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Inflation pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. That matched the call.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. That matched the call.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CTVA: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
CTVA came in above expectations (2.3 vs 2.2683 expected). We said beat.
We said
NIO: we said beat (62% odds of a beat)
What happened
NIO came in above expectations (0.01 vs -0.2599 expected). We said beat.
We said
RUM: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
RUM came in below expectations (-0.19 vs -0.1212 expected). We said beat.
We said
TTEK: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
TTEK came in above expectations (0.42 vs 0.4046 expected). We said beat.
We said
AGBK: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
AGBK came in below expectations (1.4 vs 1.558 expected). We said beat.
We said
AMAT earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CSCO earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
NU earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ARCO earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CSIQ earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (63% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
STNE earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
INTR earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MWH earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
RLX earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (63% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ADIG earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AMZE earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
LGN earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.