The Report Card · Monday, November 9, 2026
Tech Extends Gains While Power Stocks Lead S&P 500 Higher
We put the odds of a green S&P 500 close at 57% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
Accuracy
67%
Correct
28/42
Brier score
0.254
lower is better
We got 28 of 42 calls right on Monday, November 9, 2026.
By Category
12/13
92% accuracy
1/4
25% accuracy
6/9
67% accuracy
3/5
60% accuracy
6/11
55% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.38% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 2.35%, closing at 7549.94. Right direction, off by 1.97 percentage points on size.
Result +2.35% @ 7549.94
We said
NDX up 0.62% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 3.40%, closing at 27907.63. Right direction, off by 2.78 percentage points on size.
Result +3.40% @ 27907.63
We said
DJI up 0.18% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 2.15%, closing at 52389.75. Right direction, off by 1.97 percentage points on size.
Result +2.15% @ 52389.75
We said
RUT up 0.22% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 3.14%, closing at 2840.69. Right direction, off by 2.92 percentage points on size.
Result +3.14% @ 2840.69
We said
VIX down 3.85% (46% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 22.07%, closing at 19.98. Right direction, off by 18.22 percentage points on size.
Result -22.07% @ 19.98
We said
DXY down 0.08% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.61%, closing at 101.67. Right direction, off by 0.53 percentage points on size.
Result -0.61% @ 101.67
We said
US10Y down 0.45% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.10%, closing at 4.86. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.10% @ 4.86
We said
CL down 0.85% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 4.16%, closing at 87.05. Right direction, off by 3.31 percentage points on size.
Result -4.16% @ 87.05
We said
GC up 0.32% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 1.81%, closing at 4148.60. Right direction, off by 1.49 percentage points on size.
Result +1.81% @ 4148.60
We said
SI up 0.48% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 2.95%, closing at 53.33. Right direction, off by 2.47 percentage points on size.
Result +2.95% @ 53.33
We said
BTC up 0.45% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 0.26%, closing at 74777.88. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.
Result +0.26% @ 74777.88
We said
ETH up 0.55% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 0.18%, closing at 2124.80. Right direction, off by 0.37 percentage points on size.
Result +0.18% @ 2124.80
We said
NG up 0.82% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 7.34%, closing at 3.22. Right direction, off by 6.52 percentage points on size.
Result +7.34% @ 3.22
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy CEG at 249.95, take profit 269.5, cut it at 234.92
What happened
CEG traded 247.00–277.66 and closed 276.09. It hit our 269.5 take-profit — the trade worked, +7.82%.
Result +7.82% @ 276.09
We said
Buy NRG at 88.29, take profit 95.96, cut it at 82.39
What happened
NRG traded 90.23–98.14 and closed 97.56. The price never reached our 88.29 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 97.56
We said
Buy IBM at 245, take profit 258.21, cut it at 234.83
What happened
IBM traded 245.20–248.81 and closed 246.16. The price never reached our 245 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 246.16
We said
Buy FERG at 233.7, take profit 244.89, cut it at 225.08
What happened
FERG traded 246.40–265.24 and closed 259.78. The price never reached our 233.7 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 259.78
We said
Short CNH at 11.56, take profit 10.78, cut it at 12.16
What happened
CNH traded 12.15–13.25 and closed 12.84. It hit our 12.16 exit first — the trade lost -5.19%.
Result -5.19% @ 12.84
We said
Short OXY at 56.38, take profit 53.26, cut it at 58.78
What happened
OXY traded 54.97–56.19 and closed 55.78. The price never reached our 56.38 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 55.78
We said
Buy NVDA at 186.64, take profit 199.69, cut it at 176.61
What happened
NVDA traded 170.24–179.92 and closed 178.67. It hit our 176.61 exit first — the trade lost -5.37%.
Result -5.37% @ 178.67
We said
Buy MSFT at 530.61, take profit 556.4, cut it at 510.78
What happened
MSFT traded 538.70–548.28 and closed 545.18. The price never reached our 530.61 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 545.18
We said
Buy AVGO at 293.69, take profit 318.27, cut it at 274.78
What happened
AVGO traded 304.29–323.05 and closed 319.48. The price never reached our 293.69 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 319.48
We said
Short PLUG at 1.45, take profit 1.28, cut it at 1.58
What happened
PLUG traded 1.43–1.53 and closed 1.50. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.45%.
Result -3.45% @ 1.50
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CNH Industrial (CNH) will finish down at least 1.8% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said CNH would be a loser. It closed +11.03% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result +11.03% @ 12.84
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will decline on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said OXY would be a loser. It closed -1.06% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result -1.06% @ 55.78
We said
Plug Power (PLUG) will close down at least 2.0% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said PLUG would be a loser. It closed +3.45% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result +3.45% @ 1.50
We said
Constellation Energy (CEG) will raise full-year 2026 operating earnings guidance by at least 3% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) will report commercial customer backlog up more than 5% year over year on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Constellation Energy (CEG) will close up at least 1.5% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
NRG Energy (NRG) will beat consensus quarterly earnings expectations on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will drop at least 1.0% during the session on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close green on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will outperform the broader S&P 500 index on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) will close up at least 1.0% following morning earnings on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CNH Industrial (CNH) will decline at least 1.5% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will gain at least 0.4% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will close higher on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will experience daily trading volume at least 30% above its 30-day average on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Trade Desk (TTD) will trade with an intraday range wider than 4.5% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Marathon Digital (MARA) will move at least 2.5% in either direction on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Credicorp (BAP) will finish within 1.2% of its opening price on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The 10-year Treasury yield will stay below 4.48% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Crude oil futures (CL) will fail to reclaim 72 dollars a barrel on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) full-year capital expenditure guidance will remain unchanged on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will finish Monday, November 9, 2026 within 1.0% of its Sunday evening close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Trade Desk (TTD) will record an intraday high-to-low spread exceeding 5.0% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said TTD would swing hard (3%+). It moved +15.47%.
Result +15.47% @ 14.93
We said
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will register a daily trading range wider than 6.0% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said USA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.59%.
Result +1.59% @ 6.05
We said
Marathon Digital (MARA) will fluctuate by more than 4.0% between its session high and low on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said MARA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.57%.
Result +4.57% @ 6.64
We said
Constellation Energy (CEG) will rank among the top five percentage gainers in the S&P 500 on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said CEG would be a winner. It closed +10.46% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result +10.46% @ 276.09
We said
NRG Energy (NRG) will close up at least 2.0% on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said NRG would be a winner. It closed +10.49% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result +10.49% @ 97.56
We said
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) will post a positive daily return on Monday, November 9, 2026.
What happened
We said FERG would be a winner. It closed +11.16% while the S&P 500 did +2.35%.
Result +11.16% @ 259.78
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. That matched the call.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. That went against the call.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Inflation pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. That matched the call.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. That went against the call.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +2.35%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CEG: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
CEG came in above expectations (5.06 vs 3.8857 expected). We said beat.
We said
OXY: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
OXY came in above expectations (2.4 vs 1.8577 expected). We said beat.
We said
FERG: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
FERG came in above expectations (3.43 vs 3.3704 expected). We said beat.
We said
NRG: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
NRG came in above expectations (4.68 vs 3.3634 expected). We said beat.
We said
TTD: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
TTD came in below expectations (0.34 vs 0.4003 expected). We said beat.
We said
BAP: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
BAP came in in line with expectations (25.09 vs 25.2307 expected). We said beat.
We said
CNH: we said beat (62% odds of a beat)
What happened
CNH came in above expectations (0.16 vs 0.0996 expected). We said beat.
We said
JBS: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
JBS came in below expectations (0.1 vs 0.3194 expected). We said beat.
We said
KSPI: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
KSPI came in below expectations (1346 vs 1393.93 expected). We said beat.
We said
RKLB: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
RKLB came in below expectations (-0.08 vs -0.0765 expected). We said beat.
We said
SKYD: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
SKYD came in above expectations (0.18 vs 0.1548 expected). We said beat.
We said
SE earnings on 2026-11-10: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
VG earnings on 2026-11-10: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
NIO earnings on 2026-11-11: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AMAT earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CSCO earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
NU earnings on 2026-11-12: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.