The Report Card · Friday, November 6, 2026
Defensive Power and Health Shares Lift S&P 500 to a 0.3% Gain
We put the odds of a green S&P 500 close on Friday, November 6, 2026 at 56%.
Accuracy
54%
Correct
32/59
Brier score
0.261
lower is better
We got 32 of 59 calls right on Friday, November 6, 2026.
By Category
5/13
38% accuracy
5/8
63% accuracy
9/15
60% accuracy
3/6
50% accuracy
10/17
59% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.28% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 0.31%, closing at 7376.86. Right direction, off by 0.03 percentage points on size.
Result +0.32% @ 7376.86
We said
NDX up 0.32% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 1.35%, closing at 26989.99. Right direction, off by 1.03 percentage points on size.
Result +1.35% @ 26989.99
We said
DJI up 0.24% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.46%, closing at 51285.73. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.46% @ 51285.73
We said
RUT up 0.12% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.87%, closing at 2753.65. Right direction, off by 0.75 percentage points on size.
Result +0.87% @ 2753.65
We said
VIX down 3.40% (46% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 8.87%, closing at 25.68. Right direction, off by 5.47 percentage points on size.
Result -8.87% @ 25.68
We said
DXY down 0.06% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.72%, closing at 102.28. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.72% @ 102.28
We said
US10Y down 0.42% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.45%, closing at 4.86. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.46% @ 4.86
We said
CL down 0.75% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 0.03%, closing at 90.55. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.03% @ 90.55
We said
GC up 0.35% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 0.93%, closing at 4075.40. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.93% @ 4075.40
We said
SI up 0.48% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 0.51%, closing at 51.97. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.51% @ 51.97
We said
BTC up 0.45% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 0.21%, closing at 75783.28. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.21% @ 75783.28
We said
ETH up 0.55% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 0.31%, closing at 2227.56. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.31% @ 2227.56
We said
NG up 1.15% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 0.78%, closing at 2.97. Right direction, off by 0.37 percentage points on size.
Result +0.78% @ 2.97
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy VST at 112.89, take profit 126.34, cut it at 102.55
What happened
VST traded 118.90–125.80 and closed 124.76. The price never reached our 112.89 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 124.77
We said
Buy PPL at 36, take profit 36.99, cut it at 35.23
What happened
PPL traded 35.69–36.51 and closed 35.83. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.49%.
Result -0.49% @ 35.83
We said
Buy CAH at 267.82, take profit 279.44, cut it at 258.88
What happened
CAH traded 263.92–272.99 and closed 271.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.52%.
Result +1.52% @ 271.89
We said
Buy BAM at 52.46, take profit 55.16, cut it at 50.39
What happened
BAM traded 50.78–53.12 and closed 52.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.93%.
Result +0.93% @ 52.95
We said
Buy IBM at 247.11, take profit 260.6, cut it at 236.73
What happened
IBM traded 240.43–246.27 and closed 244.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.87%.
Result -0.87% @ 244.95
We said
Buy FLR at 44.98, take profit 48.15, cut it at 42.54
What happened
FLR traded 42.80–46.92 and closed 46.56. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.51%.
Result +3.51% @ 46.56
We said
Buy HUM at 411.79, take profit 434.56, cut it at 394.29
What happened
HUM traded 411.55–444.00 and closed 432.97. It hit our 434.56 take-profit — the trade worked, +5.53%.
Result +5.53% @ 432.97
We said
Short CHTR at 125.86, take profit 117.43, cut it at 132.34
What happened
CHTR traded 110.58–123.65 and closed 118.07. The price never reached our 125.86 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 118.07
We said
Short UAA at 5.57, take profit 5.16, cut it at 5.88
What happened
UAA traded 5.08–5.64 and closed 5.28. It hit our 5.16 take-profit — the trade worked, +7.36%.
Result +7.36% @ 5.28
We said
Short DK at 62.49, take profit 55.15, cut it at 68.14
What happened
DK traded 59.37–65.73 and closed 63.93. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.30%.
Result -2.30% @ 63.93
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Charter Communications (CHTR) will drop at least 1.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said CHTR would be a loser. It closed -6.19% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result -6.19% @ 118.07
We said
Under Armour (UAA) will fall more than 2.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said UAA would be a loser. It closed -5.20% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result -5.21% @ 5.28
We said
Delek US Holdings (DK) will fall at least 1.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said US would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Franklin Resources (BEN) will underperform financial peers on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said BEN would be a loser. It closed +4.81% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +4.81% @ 33.76
We said
Global Partners (GLP) will finish in the red on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said GLP would be a loser. It closed +7.02% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +7.02% @ 44.59
We said
Humana (HUM) will report a lower medical loss ratio than consensus anticipates on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Charter Communications (CHTR) will report positive broadband subscriber growth on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Vistra (VST) will raise full-year EBITDA guidance by more than 5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Under Armour (UAA) will guide full-year operating profit above consensus on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
10-year US Treasury yields (US10Y) will drop more than 8 basis points on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Vistra (VST) will close up at least 1.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
PPL (PPL) will beat quarterly consensus earnings per share estimates on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Humana (HUM) will rise by at least 1.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
International Business Machines (IBM) will finish higher by more than 0.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) will beat consensus earnings per share on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Charter Communications (CHTR) will drop at least 1.2% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Fluor (FLR) will post positive quarterly net operating income on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Under Armour (UAA) will trade down more than 2.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Cardinal Health (CAH) will close higher by at least 0.8% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Southern Company (SO) will finish up at least 0.4% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will hold above its Thursday closing price on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will gain at least 0.4% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Delek US Holdings (DK) will close lower by at least 1.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) will drop at least 2 basis points on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Gold (GC) will close above its previous session settlement on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Technology stocks will finish with a decisive gain of more than 1.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Crude oil (CL) will hold above its Thursday close on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Russell 2000 (RUT) will outperform the S&P 500 on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will break out above its five-day moving average on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Commercial real estate shares will advance on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Vistra (VST) will see an intraday trading range wider than 3.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said VST would swing hard (3%+). It moved +10.52%.
Result +10.52% @ 124.77
We said
Humana (HUM) will swing through a daily price range of at least 2.5% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said HUM would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.14%.
Result +5.14% @ 432.97
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will trade across an intraday band of at least 3.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said NVDA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.78%.
Result +2.77% @ 186.64
We said
Under Armour (UAA) will experience a daily move exceeding 4.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said UAA would swing hard (3%+). It moved -5.20%.
Result -5.21% @ 5.28
We said
Natural Gas (NG) will trade through an intraday range wider than 3.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.78%.
Result +0.78% @ 2.97
We said
Vistra (VST) will rank among the top-performing utility stocks on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said VST would be a winner. It closed +10.52% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +10.52% @ 124.77
We said
PPL (PPL) will post an earnings beat and close higher on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said PPL would be a winner. It closed -0.49% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result -0.49% @ 35.83
We said
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) will rise by at least 1.0% on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said BAM would be a winner. It closed +0.93% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +0.93% @ 52.95
We said
Cardinal Health (CAH) will continue its advance on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said CAH would be a winner. It closed +1.52% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +1.52% @ 271.89
We said
Fluor (FLR) will gain more than 1.5% after reporting results on Friday, November 6, 2026.
What happened
We said FLR would be a winner. It closed +3.51% while the S&P 500 did +0.31%.
Result +3.51% @ 46.56
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Fed pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That matched the call.
We said
AI pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Inflation pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That matched the call.
We said
Consumer pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That went against the call.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That went against the call.
We said
Employment pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. That went against the call.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.31%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
VST: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
VST came in below expectations (0.76 vs 1.6938 expected). We said beat.
We said
BAM: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
BAM came in in line with expectations (0.47 vs 0.4714 expected). We said beat.
We said
CHTR: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
CHTR came in above expectations (21.7 vs 9.2378 expected). We said beat.
We said
HUM: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
HUM came in above expectations (-0.7 vs -1.0127 expected). We said beat.
We said
MRNA: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
MRNA came in above expectations (0.38 vs -1.2755 expected). We said beat.
We said
BEN: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
BEN came in above expectations (0.94 vs 0.7796 expected). We said beat.
We said
BIP: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
BIP came in above expectations (0.91 vs 0.2182 expected). We said beat.
We said
DK: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
DK came in above expectations (10.53 vs 8.065 expected). We said beat.
We said
FLR: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
FLR came in below expectations (0.77 vs 0.811 expected). We said beat.
We said
PAGP: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
PAGP came in below expectations (-0.22 vs 0.4294 expected). We said beat.
We said
PPL: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
PPL came in in line with expectations (0.54 vs 0.5368 expected). We said beat.
We said
UAA: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
UAA came in above expectations (0 vs -0.0066 expected). We said beat.
We said
STWD: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
STWD came in below expectations (0.31 vs 0.357 expected). We said beat.
We said
CLMT: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
CLMT came in above expectations (4.65 vs 1.6806 expected). We said beat.
We said
DCH: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
DCH came in above expectations (0.22 vs 0.1868 expected). We said beat.
We said
GLP: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
GLP came in below expectations (1.26 vs 1.6261 expected). We said beat.
We said
VEON: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
VEON came in above expectations (2.67 vs 1.7544 expected). We said beat.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.