The Report Card · Thursday, November 5, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.3% as Big Tech Capex Supports Tape
Enterprise software demand and steady industrial earnings will lift equities on Thursday, November 5, 2026 with a 56% probability.
Accuracy
42%
Correct
8/19
Brier score
0.203
lower is better
We got 8 of 19 calls right on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
By Category
0/0
n/a
0/0
n/a
0/8
0% accuracy
0/0
n/a
8/11
73% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.32% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
NDX up 0.54% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
DJI up 0.18% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
RUT up 0.25% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
VIX down 2.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
DXY down 0.05% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
US10Y up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
CL down 0.45% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
GC up 0.22% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
SI up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
BTC up 0.75% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
ETH up 0.85% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
NG down 0.60% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy CAH at 261.93, take profit 271.12, cut it at 254.86
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy SO at 93.12, take profit 96, cut it at 90.91
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy IBM at 254.32, take profit 267.39, cut it at 244.27
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy CMI at 471.84, take profit 499.77, cut it at 450.37
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy NVDA at 200.13, take profit 210.7, cut it at 192
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy CI at 305.41, take profit 317.38, cut it at 296.21
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy MSFT at 555.8, take profit 580.2, cut it at 537.04
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy USFD at 109.93, take profit 115.53, cut it at 105.63
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Short LYV at 183.18, take profit 176.37, cut it at 188.42
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Short DVN at 44.12, take profit 41.34, cut it at 46.26
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) will drop at least 1.5% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said LYV would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Devon Energy (DVN) will close down at least 0.7% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said DVN would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Arrow Electronics (ARW) will slide 0.5% or more on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said ARW would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Cummins (CMI) earnings per share will exceed consensus by more than 5% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Duke Energy (DUK) will raise its capital expenditure guidance for 2027 by at least 3% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will close up at least 0.8% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Cummins (CMI) will beat consensus quarterly earnings on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ConocoPhillips (COP) will report quarterly revenue within 2% of estimates on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Duke Energy (DUK) will trade within a 1.2% band on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Cigna Group (CI) will close positive on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Southern Company (SO) will report revenue above analyst projections on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Cardinal Health (CAH) will beat consensus earnings estimates on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
US Foods (USFD) will close up more than 0.5% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Arrow Electronics (ARW) will report operating margins above 4.5% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Devon Energy (DVN) will announce a stable quarterly dividend on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) will see intraday price swings above 3% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
EOG Resources (EOG) will maintain full-year oil production targets on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield will remain between 4.10% and 4.35% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 will close green on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ConocoPhillips (COP) operating cash flow will finish within 3% of the prior quarter on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Arrow Electronics (ARW) forward guidance will exceed analyst consensus on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) will swing more than 3.5% between its high and low on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said LYV would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Devon Energy (DVN) will experience an intraday range wider than 2.5% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said DVN would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
IBM (IBM) will gain at least 1.2% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said IBM would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Cummins (CMI) will gain at least 1.0% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said CMI would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Cardinal Health (CAH) will close up more than 1.1% on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
What happened
We said CAH would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Consumer pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Inflation pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CI: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
CI came in above expectations (7.98 vs 7.7255 expected). We said beat.
We said
CMI: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
CMI came in below expectations (7.71 vs 8.2782 expected). We said beat.
We said
COP: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
COP came in above expectations (3.27 vs 2.9914 expected). We said beat.
We said
EOG: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
EOG came in in line with expectations (5.07 vs 5.0287 expected). We said beat.
We said
ARW: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
ARW came in above expectations (6.22 vs 5.0146 expected). We said beat.
We said
CAH: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
CAH came in above expectations (3.26 vs 2.9688 expected). We said beat.
We said
DUK: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
DUK came in above expectations (1.99 vs 1.8836 expected). We said beat.
We said
DVN: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
DVN came in above expectations (1.57 vs 1.4065 expected). We said beat.
We said
LYV: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
LYV came in above expectations (1.05 vs 0.6709 expected). We said beat.
We said
SO: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
SO came in above expectations (1.94 vs 1.7621 expected). We said beat.
We said
USFD: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
USFD came in in line with expectations (1.26 vs 1.2666 expected). We said beat.
We said
HUM earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CHTR earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
GLP earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
PAGP earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.