S&P 500 Holds Flat Before Chip Earnings on Tuesday, November 3, 2026

We said

DXY up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.11%, closing at 101.87. Right direction, off by 0.11 percentage points on size.

Result +0.11% @ 101.87

We said

SPX up 0.08% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.36%, closing at 7568.92. Right direction, off by 0.28 percentage points on size.

Result +0.36% @ 7568.92

We said

NDX up 0.15% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.68%, closing at 28180.26. Right direction, off by 0.53 percentage points on size.

Result +0.68% @ 28180.26

We said

DJI up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.38%, closing at 51786.72. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.38% @ 51786.72

We said

RUT up 0.22% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.30%, closing at 2814.26. Right direction, off by 0.08 percentage points on size.

Result +0.30% @ 2814.26

We said

VIX up 0.95% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 1.65%, closing at 20.80. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.66% @ 20.80

We said

US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 1.19%, closing at 4.95. Right direction, off by 1.19 percentage points on size.

Result +1.19% @ 4.95

We said

CL down 0.45% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 0.27%, closing at 96.72. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.27% @ 96.72

We said

GC up 0.12% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.97%, closing at 3931.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.97% @ 3931.20

We said

SI down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 2.08%, closing at 49.67. Right direction, off by 1.88 percentage points on size.

Result -2.08% @ 49.66

We said

BTC down 0.35% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 1.39%, closing at 77745.28. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.39% @ 77745.28

We said

ETH down 0.45% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 1.87%, closing at 2290.86. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.87% @ 2290.86

We said

NG up 1.15% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.79%, closing at 2.91. Right direction, off by 0.64 percentage points on size.

Result +1.79% @ 2.91

We said

Buy IBM at 252.51, take profit 265.26, cut it at 242.69

What happened

IBM traded 244.61–250.95 and closed 250.04. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.98%.

Result -0.98% @ 250.04

We said

Buy ETN at 366.07, take profit 394.37, cut it at 344.29

What happened

ETN traded 376.56–395.63 and closed 391.70. The price never reached our 366.07 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 391.70

We said

Buy AMD at 466.84, take profit 520.48, cut it at 425.58

What happened

AMD traded 473.54–497.35 and closed 483.90. The price never reached our 466.84 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 483.90

We said

Buy ANET at 164.14, take profit 180.06, cut it at 151.89

What happened

ANET traded 165.21–171.80 and closed 169.91. The price never reached our 164.14 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 169.91

We said

Short MPC at 430.39, take profit 400.18, cut it at 453.63

What happened

MPC traded 414.35–435.00 and closed 427.34. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.71%.

Result +0.71% @ 427.34

We said

Short CVS at 88.51, take profit 85.06, cut it at 91.17

What happened

CVS traded 88.02–91.89 and closed 91.41. It hit our 91.17 exit first — the trade lost -3.01%.

Result -3.00% @ 91.41

We said

Buy NVDA at 202.06, take profit 212.99, cut it at 193.65

What happened

NVDA traded 205.93–209.14 and closed 206.69. The price never reached our 202.06 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 206.69

We said

Buy ADM at 75.77, take profit 78.73, cut it at 73.5

What happened

ADM traded 69.39–75.00 and closed 70.60. It hit our 73.5 exit first — the trade lost -3.00%.

Result -3.00% @ 70.60

We said

Short CAR at 111.52, take profit 103.8, cut it at 117.46

What happened

CAR traded 108.64–112.70 and closed 109.34. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.95%.

Result +1.96% @ 109.34

We said

Buy PFE at 30.67, take profit 31.69, cut it at 29.88

What happened

PFE traded 29.89–31.05 and closed 30.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.18%.

Result -2.19% @ 30.00

We said

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will finish in the red on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said MPC would be a loser. It closed -0.71% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result -0.71% @ 427.34

We said

CVS Health (CVS) will underperform the S&P 500 on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said CVS would be a loser. It closed +3.28% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +3.28% @ 91.41

We said

Crude Oil (CL) will close down on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said CL would be a loser. It closed +0.27% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +0.27% @ 96.72

We said

Avis Budget Group (CAR) will drop by at least 1.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said CAR would be a loser. It closed -1.95% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result -1.96% @ 109.34

We said

Ethereum (ETH) will close lower on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said ETH would be a loser. It closed +1.87% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +1.87% @ 2290.86

We said

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) will beat consensus earnings per share expectations by at least 3% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Pfizer (PFE) will report revenue above Wall Street consensus on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eaton (ETN) will deliver an operating margin surprise above consensus on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Booking Holdings (BKNG) will report gross travel bookings above consensus expectations on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy Transfer (ET) will post distributable cash flow exceeding consensus on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will close up between 0.5% and 2.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ahead of its evening earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will gain at least 0.4% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 as enterprise software contracts sustain relative strength.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Pfizer (PFE) will close within 1.0% of its opening price on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 after reporting third-quarter earnings before the bell.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) will decline by at least 0.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 following its morning quarterly release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) will gain between 0.2% and 1.8% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 following its pre-market report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy Transfer (ET) will hold a trading range within 0.8% of flat on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 following its morning release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Arista Networks (ANET) will rise at least 0.8% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 in regular trading ahead of after-hours results.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amgen (AMGN) will trade within a tight 1.2% band on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ahead of after-close earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Booking Holdings (BKNG) will close green on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 ahead of its evening earnings announcement.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will gain at least 0.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 as semiconductor sympathetic flow lifts peer multiples.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eaton (ETN) will advance by at least 0.6% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 following its morning financial update.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will see intraday price swings exceeding 4.0% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 around its evening update.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CVS Health (CVS) will trade lower by at least 0.3% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 as medical loss ratio concerns overhang the peer group.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will gain at least 1.0% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will close within 3 basis points (hundredths of a percent) of its opening level on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will close with an absolute move greater than 5.0% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude Oil (CL) will break out of its five-day trading range on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will move more than 4 basis points (hundredths of a percent) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Shopify (SHOP) will finish green on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

S&P 500 (SPX) will finish the session with an absolute change greater than 0.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will record an intraday high-to-low range of at least 5.0% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said SMCI would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.12%.

Result +3.12% @ 31.39

We said

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will experience an intraday range of at least 2.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said AMD would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.65%.

Result +3.65% @ 483.90

We said

Roku (ROKU) will trade through an intraday range wider than 3.5% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said ROKU would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.11%.

Result +3.11% @ 160.36

We said

Duolingo (DUOL) will trade in a high-to-low range of at least 3.0% on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said DUOL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -5.37%.

Result -5.37% @ 128.00

We said

VIX (VIX) will swing by more than 4.0% between its intraday high and low on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said VIX would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.65%.

Result -1.66% @ 20.80

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will finish as one of the stronger commodity contracts on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said NG would be a winner. It closed +1.79% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +1.79% @ 2.91

We said

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will be among the day's top large-cap tech gainers on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said AMD would be a winner. It closed +3.65% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +3.65% @ 483.90

We said

Eaton (ETN) will outpace the S&P 500 Industrial sector on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said ETN would be a winner. It closed +7.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +7.00% @ 391.70

We said

IBM (IBM) will outperform the broader S&P 500 on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed -0.98% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result -0.98% @ 250.04

We said

Arista Networks (ANET) will close in the green on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

What happened

We said ANET would be a winner. It closed +3.52% while the S&P 500 did +0.36%.

Result +3.52% @ 169.91

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. That went against the call.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.36%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AMD: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

AMD came in above expectations (1.66 vs 1.6313 expected). We said beat.

We said

MPC: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

MPC came in above expectations (26.93 vs 24.7151 expected). We said beat.

We said

PFE: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

PFE came in above expectations (0.87 vs 0.7326 expected). We said beat.

We said

ANET: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

ANET came in above expectations (1.02 vs 0.9026 expected). We said beat.

We said

AMGN: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

AMGN came in above expectations (6.29 vs 5.7281 expected). We said beat.

We said

BKNG: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

BKNG came in above expectations (2.54 vs 2.4982 expected). We said beat.

We said

ADM: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

ADM came in above expectations (1.84 vs 1.4509 expected). We said beat.

We said

ET: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

ET came in below expectations (0.33 vs 0.4151 expected). We said beat.

We said

QCOM earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CVS earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MCD earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

COR earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MCK earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PAYP earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CI earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

COP earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CAH earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HUM earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.