Apple Anchors A Flat Session For Tech On Monday

We said

SPX up 0.05% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.51%, closing at 7541.40. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.51% @ 7541.40

We said

NDX down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 1.39%, closing at 27989.82. Right direction, off by 1.29 percentage points on size.

Result -1.39% @ 27989.82

We said

DJI up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.41%, closing at 51983.98. Right direction, off by 0.31 percentage points on size.

Result +0.41% @ 51983.98

We said

RUT up 0.25% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.21%, closing at 2805.84. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.21% @ 2805.84

We said

VIX up 1.20% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 10.25%, closing at 21.41. Right direction, off by 9.05 percentage points on size.

Result +10.25% @ 21.41

We said

DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.11%, closing at 101.77. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.11% @ 101.77

We said

US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 0.71%, closing at 4.89. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.71% @ 4.89

We said

CL up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 7.91%, closing at 95.88. We called the wrong direction.

Result -7.91% @ 95.88

We said

GC up 0.05% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 1.48%, closing at 3956.70. Right direction, off by 1.43 percentage points on size.

Result +1.48% @ 3956.70

We said

SI down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 3.10%, closing at 50.62. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.10% @ 50.62

We said

BTC down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 1.93%, closing at 76739.85. Right direction, off by 1.73 percentage points on size.

Result -1.93% @ 76739.85

We said

ETH down 0.40% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 1.06%, closing at 2248.94. Right direction, off by 0.66 percentage points on size.

Result -1.06% @ 2248.94

We said

NG up 0.80% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.21%, closing at 2.86. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.21% @ 2.86

We said

Buy AAPL at 344.63, take profit 354.59, cut it at 336.96

What happened

AAPL traded 335.84–343.78 and closed 338.32. It hit our 336.96 exit first — the trade lost -2.23%.

Result -2.23% @ 338.32

We said

Buy IBM at 257.81, take profit 270.42, cut it at 248.11

What happened

IBM traded 252.36–259.87 and closed 252.51. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.06%.

Result -2.06% @ 252.51

We said

Short ON at 71.67, take profit 65.81, cut it at 76.18

What happened

ON traded 69.88–74.77 and closed 70.11. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.18%.

Result +2.18% @ 70.11

We said

Short EL at 109.23, take profit 103.39, cut it at 113.72

What happened

EL traded 103.09–113.50 and closed 104.77. It hit our 103.39 take-profit — the trade worked, +5.35%.

Result +5.35% @ 104.77

We said

Buy FANG at 212.08, take profit 221.22, cut it at 205.05

What happened

FANG traded 197.65–209.55 and closed 199.74. It hit our 205.05 exit first — the trade lost -3.31%.

Result -3.31% @ 199.74

We said

Buy IDXX at 551.21, take profit 576.57, cut it at 531.71

What happened

IDXX traded 620.20–673.19 and closed 671.64. The price never reached our 551.21 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 671.64

We said

Buy FOXA at 63.24, take profit 66.33, cut it at 60.87

What happened

FOXA traded 62.42–66.72 and closed 62.76. It hit our 66.33 take-profit — the trade worked, +4.89%.

Result +4.89% @ 62.76

We said

Short LSCC at 92.97, take profit 82.47, cut it at 101.05

What happened

LSCC traded 90.25–97.62 and closed 95.44. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.66%.

Result -2.66% @ 95.44

We said

Short MAR at 399.3, take profit 385.36, cut it at 410.03

What happened

MAR traded 411.82–433.30 and closed 416.30. It hit our 410.03 exit first — the trade lost -2.69%.

Result -2.69% @ 416.30

We said

Short MTCH at 41.41, take profit 39.1, cut it at 43.19

What happened

MTCH traded 41.18–42.26 and closed 42.07. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.59%.

Result -1.59% @ 42.07

We said

Apple (AAPL) will trade within a tight 1.5% range during regular hours.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ON Semiconductor (ON) will drop at least 2.5% following its quarterly earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) will decline at least 2.0% after reporting earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Estée Lauder (EL) will fall at least 3.0% during Monday trading.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Marriott International (MAR) will close down at least 1.5% following its morning report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Diamondback Energy (FANG) will gain at least 1.2% ahead of after-market results.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) will gain at least 1.8% following its pre-market release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) will close up at least 0.3% during Monday trading.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fox Corporation (FOXA) will gain at least 1.5% after reporting pre-market earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Check Point Software (CHKP) will trade within a 2.0% band after morning earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Realty Income (O) will close within 0.8% of its opening price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Match Group (MTCH) will drop at least 2.0% into after-hours results.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will finish Monday with a gain of at least 0.4%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will move less than 4 basis points on Monday.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) will outperform the S&P 500 by 0.5% on Monday.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) will finish among the day's leading healthcare gainers.

What happened

We said IDXX would be a winner. It closed +21.85% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result +21.85% @ 671.64

We said

Fox Corporation (FOXA) will outperform the Communication Services sector by at least 1.0%.

What happened

We said FOXA would be a winner. It closed -0.76% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result -0.76% @ 62.76

We said

Diamondback Energy (FANG) will rank among the top energy performers.

What happened

We said FANG would be a winner. It closed -5.82% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result -5.82% @ 199.74

We said

IBM (IBM) will outperform the Nasdaq 100 on Monday.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed -2.06% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result -2.06% @ 252.51

We said

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) will close green as defensive capital rotates into cash-rich names.

What happened

We said BRK would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result 0.00%

We said

Estée Lauder (EL) will rank among the biggest consumer decliners.

What happened

We said EL would be a loser. It closed -4.08% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result -4.08% @ 104.77

We said

ON Semiconductor (ON) will be among the weakest semiconductor names on Monday.

What happened

We said ON would be a loser. It closed -2.18% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result -2.18% @ 70.11

We said

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) will underperform the semiconductor benchmark by at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said LSCC would be a loser. It closed +2.66% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result +2.66% @ 95.44

We said

Match Group (MTCH) will decline into Monday's market close.

What happened

We said MTCH would be a loser. It closed +1.59% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result +1.59% @ 42.07

We said

Marriott International (MAR) will lag the broad market on slower domestic revenue trends.

What happened

We said MAR would be a loser. It closed +4.26% while the S&P 500 did -0.51%.

Result +4.26% @ 416.30

We said

ON Semiconductor (ON) will post an intraday trading range exceeding 5.0%.

What happened

We said ON would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.18%.

Result -2.18% @ 70.11

We said

Estée Lauder (EL) will see an intraday high-to-low spread greater than 4.5%.

What happened

We said EL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.08%.

Result -4.08% @ 104.77

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will experience an absolute price swing greater than 3.5%.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.21%.

Result -1.21% @ 2.86

We said

Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) will register an intraday range of at least 4.0%.

What happened

We said LSCC would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.66%.

Result +2.66% @ 95.44

We said

Match Group (MTCH) will trade across a 4.0% band ahead of quarterly metrics.

What happened

We said MTCH would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.59%.

Result +1.59% @ 42.07

We said

Fox Corporation (FOXA) will exceed operating income consensus by more than 5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) will deliver gross margins 40 basis points above consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Diamondback Energy (FANG) will raise full-year oil production targets without lifting capital expenditures.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Check Point Software (CHKP) will post operating margin expansion despite enterprise IT budget reviews.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Realty Income (O) will announce higher acquisition volume guidance for commercial storefronts.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) iPhone 16 channel inventory commentary will split analyst opinions.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

WTI Crude Oil (CL) will hold within 50 cents of its opening price on Monday.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close within 0.15% of unchanged.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will fluctuate within a narrow 1.5% band throughout the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold (GC) will trade in a subdued 15-dollar range during the New York trading day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AAPL: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

AAPL came in in line with expectations (1.91 vs 1.9271 expected). We said beat.

We said

BRK.A: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

BRK.A came in above expectations (9038.3 vs 7594.5732 expected). We said beat.

We said

ON: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

ON came in in line with expectations (0.74 vs 0.7363 expected). We said beat.

We said

EL: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

EL came in above expectations (0.72 vs 0.5218 expected). We said beat.

We said

MAR: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

MAR came in above expectations (3.02 vs 2.8712 expected). We said beat.

We said

AMD earnings on 2026-11-03: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MPC earnings on 2026-11-03: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PFE earnings on 2026-11-03: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

QCOM earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CVS earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MCD earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

COR earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MCK earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PAYP earnings on 2026-11-04: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CI earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

COP earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CAH earnings on 2026-11-05: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HUM earnings on 2026-11-06: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.