Tech Rallies to Lift the Nasdaq 0.5% Higher Tomorrow

We said

SPX up 0.22% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 1.82%, closing at 7580.07. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.82% @ 7580.07

We said

NDX up 0.48% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 3.46%, closing at 28384.85. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.46% @ 28384.85

We said

DJI down 0.12% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 1.09%, closing at 51770.31. Right direction, off by 0.97 percentage points on size.

Result -1.09% @ 51770.31

We said

RUT up 0.35% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 1.66%, closing at 2811.83. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.66% @ 2811.83

We said

VIX down 1.40% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 15.52%, closing at 19.87. We called the wrong direction.

Result +15.52% @ 19.87

We said

DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.14%, closing at 101.90. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.14% @ 101.90

We said

US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 1.20%, closing at 4.93. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.20% @ 4.93

We said

CL down 0.25% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 0.79%, closing at 102.81. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.79% @ 102.81

We said

GC up 0.05% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 3.46%, closing at 3891.90. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.46% @ 3891.90

We said

SI down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 5.42%, closing at 49.36. Right direction, off by 5.12 percentage points on size.

Result -5.42% @ 49.36

We said

BTC down 0.40% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 1.25%, closing at 76804.91. Right direction, off by 0.85 percentage points on size.

Result -1.25% @ 76804.91

We said

ETH down 0.55% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.55%, closing at 2237.02. Right direction, off by 0.00 percentage points on size.

Result -0.56% @ 2237.02

We said

NG up 0.65% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 2.20%, closing at 2.89. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.20% @ 2.89

We said

Buy IBM at 258.28, take profit 270.88, cut it at 248.59

What happened

IBM traded 254.71–259.59 and closed 257.86. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.16%.

Result -0.17% @ 257.86

We said

Buy NVDA at 213.66, take profit 223.32, cut it at 206.24

What happened

NVDA traded 200.92–209.05 and closed 204.64. It hit our 206.24 exit first — the trade lost -3.47%.

Result -3.47% @ 204.64

We said

Buy ABBV at 290.79, take profit 301.69, cut it at 282.39

What happened

ABBV traded 291.01–298.74 and closed 294.82. The price never reached our 290.79 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 294.81

We said

Buy REGN at 818.77, take profit 852.99, cut it at 792.47

What happened

REGN traded 839.08–935.34 and closed 927.89. The price never reached our 818.77 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 927.89

We said

Buy MSFT at 530.14, take profit 548.22, cut it at 516.22

What happened

MSFT traded 514.35–526.00 and closed 521.91. It hit our 516.22 exit first — the trade lost -2.63%.

Result -2.63% @ 521.91

We said

Buy CCJ at 83.49, take profit 88.18, cut it at 79.88

What happened

CCJ traded 73.89–77.26 and closed 76.89. It hit our 79.88 exit first — the trade lost -4.32%.

Result -4.32% @ 76.89

We said

Buy CL at 93.16, take profit 99.61, cut it at 88.2

What happened

CL traded 102.43–104.99 and closed 102.81. The price never reached our 93.16 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 102.81

We said

Short XOM at 183.29, take profit 176.76, cut it at 188.31

What happened

XOM traded 184.68–188.50 and closed 187.24. It hit our 188.31 exit first — the trade lost -2.74%.

Result -2.74% @ 187.25

We said

Short LEA at 117.38, take profit 112.95, cut it at 120.78

What happened

LEA traded 116.91–121.83 and closed 118.39. It hit our 120.78 exit first — the trade lost -2.90%.

Result -2.90% @ 118.39

We said

Short LYB at 65.37, take profit 62.46, cut it at 67.61

What happened

LYB traded 64.67–68.73 and closed 68.71. It hit our 67.61 exit first — the trade lost -3.43%.

Result -3.43% @ 68.71

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will gain at least 0.4% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will finish higher by at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Exxon Mobil (XOM) will underperform the S&P 500 tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Chevron (CVX) will trade down or close within 0.3% of unchanged.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AbbVie (ABBV) will beat third-quarter consensus earnings estimates.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Regeneron (REGN) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) will beat consensus earnings per share.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Kenvue (KVUE) will advance less than 0.5% following earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Lear (LEA) will drop at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

LyondellBasell (LYB) will close lower tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Dominion Energy (D) will close green with a gain under 0.6%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AutoNation (AN) will post third-quarter revenue growth below 2.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cameco (CCJ) will close up at least 1.2% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury yield will stay inside a narrow 6 basis point band tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Regeneron (REGN) will rise more than 1.2% tomorrow.

What happened

We said REGN would be a winner. It closed +13.33% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +13.33% @ 927.89

We said

AbbVie (ABBV) will gain at least 0.9% tomorrow.

What happened

We said ABBV would be a winner. It closed +1.38% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +1.38% @ 294.81

We said

IBM (IBM) will outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average tomorrow.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed -0.16% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result -0.17% @ 257.86

We said

Cameco (CCJ) will be among the top basic materials gainers tomorrow.

What happened

We said CCJ would be a winner. It closed -7.90% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result -7.90% @ 76.89

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will outperform semiconductor benchmark indexes tomorrow.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -4.22% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result -4.22% @ 204.64

We said

Lear (LEA) will decline by at least 1.2% tomorrow.

What happened

We said LEA would be a loser. It closed +0.86% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +0.86% @ 118.39

We said

LyondellBasell (LYB) will drop more than 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

We said LYB would be a loser. It closed +5.11% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +5.11% @ 68.71

We said

Exxon Mobil (XOM) will slide at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

We said XOM would be a loser. It closed +2.16% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +2.16% @ 187.25

We said

AutoNation (AN) will underperform the Consumer Discretionary sector tomorrow.

What happened

We said AN would be a loser. It closed +6.11% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +6.11% @ 179.68

We said

Newell Brands (NWL) will decline following its morning earnings release.

What happened

We said NWL would be a loser. It closed +1.97% while the S&P 500 did -1.82%.

Result +1.97% @ 5.18

We said

Regeneron (REGN) will experience an intraday high-to-low range wider than 3.5%.

What happened

We said REGN would swing hard (3%+). It moved +13.33%.

Result +13.33% @ 927.89

We said

Chevron (CVX) will trade through an intraday range wider than 2.0%.

What happened

We said CVX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.78%.

Result +1.78% @ 235.59

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will see a daily price swing exceeding 3.0%.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.20%.

Result -2.20% @ 2.89

We said

Church & Dwight (CHD) will move more than 2.5% intraday following earnings.

What happened

We said CHD would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.07%.

Result +1.07% @ 107.13

We said

Cameco (CCJ) will post an intraday trading range wider than 3.0%.

What happened

We said CCJ would swing hard (3%+). It moved -7.90%.

Result -7.90% @ 76.89

We said

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) will raise its full-year organic sales forecast by at least 50 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Exxon Mobil (XOM) will announce quarterly Permian crude production volume 3% higher than Wall Street targets.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Core PCE Price Index will print at 0.1% month over month, below the 0.2% consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AbbVie (ABBV) will lift full-year profit guidance by more than 10 cents per share.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AutoNation (AN) will report higher used car gross margins despite industry-wide price declines.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Chevron (CVX) will close green following its morning earnings release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Kenvue (KVUE) will sustain an opening price move through the market close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury yield will close above 4.25% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will finish in positive territory tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Church & Dwight (CHD) will finish the day higher following its earnings release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. That went against the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. That matched the call.

We said

Fed pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. That matched the call.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.82%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

CVX: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

CVX came in above expectations (5.28 vs 4.9317 expected). We said beat.

We said

XOM: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

XOM came in above expectations (4.23 vs 4.1205 expected). We said beat.

We said

ABBV: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

ABBV came in in line with expectations (3.82 vs 3.8259 expected). We said beat.

We said

REGN: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

REGN came in above expectations (20.07 vs 16.4787 expected). We said beat.

We said

CL: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

CL came in above expectations (0.97 vs 0.9535 expected). We said beat.

We said

D: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

D came in above expectations (1.28 vs 1.2356 expected). We said beat.

We said

EXC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

EXC came in above expectations (0.87 vs 0.8003 expected). We said beat.

We said

KVUE: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

KVUE came in below expectations (0.29 vs 0.3004 expected). We said beat.

We said

LYB: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

LYB came in below expectations (2.54 vs 2.5939 expected). We said beat.

We said

CCJ: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

CCJ came in below expectations (0 vs 0.3191 expected). We said beat.

We said

AN: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

AN came in below expectations (5.11 vs 5.2313 expected). We said beat.

We said

CHD: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

CHD came in above expectations (0.92 vs 0.9102 expected). We said beat.

We said

LEA: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

LEA came in above expectations (3.71 vs 3.4003 expected). We said beat.

We said

NWL: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

NWL came in in line with expectations (0.2 vs 0.1992 expected). We said beat.

We said

CBOE: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

CBOE came in above expectations (3.63 vs 3.5041 expected). We said beat.

We said

BTSG: we said beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

BTSG came in above expectations (0.54 vs 0.4813 expected). We said beat.

We said

DCH: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

DCH came in above expectations (0.32 vs 0.1764 expected). We said beat.