Microsoft and Alphabet Lift the Nasdaq 0.6% Higher Tomorrow

We said

SPX up 0.35% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.28%, closing at 7743.98. Right direction, off by 0.07 percentage points on size.

Result +0.28% @ 7743.98

We said

NDX up 0.58% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.55%, closing at 29813.16. Right direction, off by 0.03 percentage points on size.

Result +0.55% @ 29813.16

We said

DJI up 0.18% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.19%, closing at 52475.10. Right direction, off by 0.01 percentage points on size.

Result +0.19% @ 52475.10

We said

RUT up 0.22% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.41%, closing at 2830.51. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.41% @ 2830.51

We said

VIX down 1.80% (46% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 4.22%, closing at 16.78. Right direction, off by 2.42 percentage points on size.

Result -4.22% @ 16.78

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.21%, closing at 102.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.20% @ 102.11

We said

US10Y down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 1.04%, closing at 5.05. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.04% @ 5.04

We said

CL down 0.65% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.49%, closing at 101.39. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.49% @ 101.39

We said

GC up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.28%, closing at 4085.90. Right direction, off by 0.08 percentage points on size.

Result +0.28% @ 4085.90

We said

SI up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.19%, closing at 54.40. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.19% @ 54.40

We said

BTC up 0.45% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.51%, closing at 81216.33. Right direction, off by 0.06 percentage points on size.

Result +0.51% @ 81216.33

We said

ETH up 0.55% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.72%, closing at 2364.74. Right direction, off by 0.17 percentage points on size.

Result +0.72% @ 2364.74

We said

NG down 0.80% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 12.16%, closing at 3.03. We called the wrong direction.

Result +12.16% @ 3.02

We said

Buy MSFT at 531.33, take profit 549.29, cut it at 517.52

What happened

MSFT traded 526.14–534.57 and closed 531.01. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.06%.

Result -0.06% @ 531.01

We said

Buy IBM at 250.25, take profit 262.54, cut it at 240.8

What happened

IBM traded 247.68–253.85 and closed 253.22. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.19%.

Result +1.19% @ 253.22

We said

Buy NOW at 154.78, take profit 165.07, cut it at 146.87

What happened

NOW traded 148.23–155.15 and closed 150.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.00%.

Result -3.00% @ 150.13

We said

Buy GOOGL at 320.58, take profit 334.17, cut it at 310.12

What happened

GOOGL traded 322.65–326.40 and closed 324.89. The price never reached our 320.58 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 324.89

We said

Buy BSX at 45.06, take profit 46.97, cut it at 43.6

What happened

BSX traded 39.57–43.91 and closed 42.43. It hit our 43.6 exit first — the trade lost -3.24%.

Result -3.24% @ 42.43

We said

Buy VRT at 208.56, take profit 227.5, cut it at 193.99

What happened

VRT traded 228.82–245.31 and closed 242.94. The price never reached our 208.56 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 242.94

We said

Buy NVDA at 217.94, take profit 228.03, cut it at 210.18

What happened

NVDA traded 214.47–219.99 and closed 215.38. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.17%.

Result -1.18% @ 215.38

We said

Short F at 11.71, take profit 11.23, cut it at 12.08

What happened

F traded 11.71–11.98 and closed 11.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.05%.

Result -2.05% @ 11.95

We said

Buy TMUS at 146.83, take profit 157.48, cut it at 138.64

What happened

TMUS traded 143.75–148.45 and closed 148.08. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.85%.

Result +0.85% @ 148.08

We said

Buy CMG at 27.98, take profit 29.86, cut it at 26.53

What happened

CMG traded 28.07–29.24 and closed 28.73. The price never reached our 27.98 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 28.73

We said

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) will close higher by at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will finish positive by at least 0.4% post-earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Electric Vernova (GEV) will advance by more than 1.2% following its report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8% ahead of its evening earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will advance more than 0.7% during regular market hours.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

International Business Machines (IBM) will add at least 0.6% during the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will gain more than 1.0% into its post-market results.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Ford Motor (F) will drop at least 1.0% following its earnings release after the close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

T-Mobile US (TMUS) will rise at least 0.5% ahead of its results.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will finish the day higher by at least 1.1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will gain more than 0.8% into the afternoon close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) will rise at least 1.5% after reporting pre-market earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boston Scientific (BSX) will close up at least 0.7% following morning earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will outperform the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) by at least 0.35%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) will decline by at least 0.4%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury Yield will stay within a tight band of five basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) will finish the day as one of the top industrial gainers, up over 2.0%.

What happened

We said VRT would be a winner. It closed +16.48% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +16.48% @ 242.94

We said

Boston Scientific (BSX) will rise more than 1.2% following its pre-market report.

What happened

We said BSX would be a winner. It closed -5.84% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -5.84% @ 42.43

We said

International Business Machines (IBM) will outperform the broader enterprise software sector by 0.5%.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed +1.19% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +1.19% @ 253.22

We said

General Electric Vernova (GEV) will rise more than 1.5% post-earnings.

What happened

We said GEV would be a winner. It closed -1.90% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -1.91% @ 878.03

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will close up more than 1.2% ahead of evening numbers.

What happened

We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -3.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -3.00% @ 150.13

We said

Ford Motor (F) will fall more than 1.5% in after-hours trade following earnings.

What happened

We said F would be a loser. It closed +2.05% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +2.05% @ 11.95

We said

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) will slip more than 1.0% following morning earnings.

What happened

We said ODFL would be a loser. It closed -7.33% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -7.33% @ 173.32

We said

Valero Energy (VLO) will drop at least 1.1% during regular market hours.

What happened

We said VLO would be a loser. It closed +0.29% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +0.29% @ 388.48

We said

Whirlpool (WHR) will decline more than 1.2% following its earnings commentary.

What happened

We said WHR would be a loser. It closed -0.40% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -0.40% @ 27.31

We said

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) will give back at least 2.5% of its recent relief rally.

What happened

We said JBLU would be a loser. It closed +1.06% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +1.06% @ 2.85

We said

Carvana (CVNA) will swing in a daily range wider than 5.0% surrounding its post-market earnings.

What happened

We said CVNA would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.30%.

Result -0.30% @ 59.05

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will experience a trading range wider than 3.5% across regular and extended sessions.

What happened

We said NOW would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.00%.

Result -3.00% @ 150.13

We said

Ford Motor (F) will move through a price corridor exceeding 3.0% post-market.

What happened

We said F would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.05%.

Result +2.05% @ 11.95

We said

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) intraday price movement will span at least 3.0% around the close.

What happened

We said CMG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.68%.

Result +2.68% @ 28.73

We said

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) will trade through an intraday range of at least 4.0%.

What happened

We said VRT would swing hard (3%+). It moved +16.48%.

Result +16.48% @ 242.94

We said

General Electric Vernova (GEV) will surpass operating margin consensus by more than 50 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will report client payroll retention rates higher than 92.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will reveal Google Cloud operating margin above 11.5% in its evening release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boston Scientific (BSX) will increase full-year organic revenue guidance by at least 100 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

T-Mobile US (TMUS) will report postpaid phone net customer additions topping 850,000.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Ford Motor (F) full-year electric vehicle unit loss guidance will be widened.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) Azure constant-currency quarterly growth rate will come in above 29.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude Oil (CL) contracts will hold the $70 per barrel psychological benchmark through the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) restaurant-level operating margin will exceed 25.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) current remaining performance obligations growth will top 21.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Fed pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That went against the call.

We said

BMY earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GOOGL: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

GOOGL came in below expectations (2.85 vs 2.9798 expected). We said beat.

We said

MSFT: we said beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

MSFT came in above expectations (4.74 vs 4.3274 expected). We said beat.

We said

F: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

F came in above expectations (0.42 vs 0.3568 expected). We said beat.

We said

TMUS: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

TMUS came in above expectations (2.99 vs 2.6456 expected). We said beat.

We said

NOW: we said beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

NOW came in above expectations (0.9 vs 0.8625 expected). We said beat.

We said

VRT: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

VRT came in above expectations (2.21 vs 1.8488 expected). We said beat.

We said

CMG: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

CMG came in above expectations (0.33 vs 0.3224 expected). We said beat.

We said

BSX: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

BSX came in above expectations (0.73 vs 0.7224 expected). We said beat.

We said

ADP: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

ADP came in in line with expectations (2.82 vs 2.7938 expected). We said beat.

We said

AMZN earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LLY earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CAT earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

INTC earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MA earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MRK earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SBUX earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ABBV earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CVX earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

XOM earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.