Tech Rallies, S&P 500 Adds 0.3% Tomorrow

We said

SPX up 0.32% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.60%, closing at 7722.60. Right direction, off by 0.28 percentage points on size.

Result +0.60% @ 7722.60

We said

NDX up 0.45% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 1.29%, closing at 29651.44. Right direction, off by 0.84 percentage points on size.

Result +1.29% @ 29651.44

We said

DJI up 0.18% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.03%, closing at 52377.57. Right direction, off by 0.15 percentage points on size.

Result +0.03% @ 52377.57

We said

RUT up 0.35% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 1.17%, closing at 2819.12. Right direction, off by 0.82 percentage points on size.

Result +1.17% @ 2819.12

We said

VIX down 1.85% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 4.19%, closing at 17.62. Right direction, off by 2.34 percentage points on size.

Result -4.19% @ 17.62

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.35%, closing at 102.32. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.

Result +0.35% @ 102.32

We said

US10Y down 0.25% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.14%, closing at 4.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.14% @ 4.99

We said

CL down 0.45% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 1.80%, closing at 99.93. Right direction, off by 1.35 percentage points on size.

Result -1.80% @ 99.93

We said

GC up 0.22% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.88%, closing at 4074.00. Right direction, off by 0.66 percentage points on size.

Result +0.88% @ 4074.00

We said

SI up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.72%, closing at 54.50. Right direction, off by 0.37 percentage points on size.

Result +0.72% @ 54.50

We said

BTC up 0.40% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.82%, closing at 80660.22. Right direction, off by 0.42 percentage points on size.

Result +0.82% @ 80660.22

We said

ETH up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 1.01%, closing at 2343.67. Right direction, off by 0.51 percentage points on size.

Result +1.01% @ 2343.67

We said

NG down 0.60% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 17.79%, closing at 3.07. We called the wrong direction.

Result +17.79% @ 3.06

We said

Buy CDNS at 322.17, take profit 340.86, cut it at 307.79

What happened

CDNS traded 323.70–348.80 and closed 343.08. The price never reached our 322.17 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 343.08

We said

Buy KO at 92.7, take profit 95.42, cut it at 90.61

What happened

KO traded 90.81–92.94 and closed 91.18. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.64%.

Result -1.64% @ 91.18

We said

Short BA at 188.31, take profit 181.55, cut it at 193.51

What happened

BA traded 167.41–187.86 and closed 168.16. The price never reached our 188.31 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 168.16

We said

Buy V at 404.16, take profit 416, cut it at 395.07

What happened

V traded 397.36–403.51 and closed 401.94. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.55%.

Result -0.55% @ 401.94

We said

Buy IBM at 253.44, take profit 265.68, cut it at 244.03

What happened

IBM traded 249.16–253.18 and closed 250.24. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.26%.

Result -1.26% @ 250.24

We said

Buy PYPL at 54.99, take profit 56.89, cut it at 53.53

What happened

PYPL traded 54.34–56.63 and closed 56.09. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.00%.

Result +2.00% @ 56.09

We said

Buy MSFT at 532.6, take profit 550.71, cut it at 518.69

What happened

MSFT traded 528.33–534.70 and closed 531.33. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.24%.

Result -0.24% @ 531.33

We said

Short UPS at 100.32, take profit 96.98, cut it at 102.89

What happened

UPS traded 99.66–106.58 and closed 106.13. It hit our 102.89 exit first — the trade lost -2.56%.

Result -2.56% @ 106.13

We said

Buy NVDA at 216, take profit 225.98, cut it at 208.33

What happened

NVDA traded 215.53–219.19 and closed 217.94. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.90%.

Result +0.90% @ 217.94

We said

Buy AVGO at 329.17, take profit 347.41, cut it at 315.14

What happened

AVGO traded 336.87–345.67 and closed 342.33. The price never reached our 329.17 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 342.33

We said

Visa (V) will close higher by at least 0.5% after reporting solid cross-border transaction volumes.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

PayPal (PYPL) will gain more than 1.0% following third-quarter checkout monetization figures.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boeing (BA) will fall more than 1.5% after lowering commercial delivery targets.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Coca-Cola (KO) will close higher by at least 0.4% following morning earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will rise at least 0.6% ahead of its Wednesday cloud earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will advance at least 0.5% into its earnings release.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will finish up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will add at least 0.5% as hybrid cloud integration momentum continues.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will advance at least 0.7% on custom silicon orders.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Parcel Service (UPS) will drop at least 1.0% following morning volume guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) will gain at least 0.8% following post-earnings follow-through.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Seagate Technology (STX) will move more than 2.0% in post-market trade on storage demand.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) will fall at least 0.6% on softening copper spot prices.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury Yield will stay between 4.15% and 4.28% throughout the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) will decline by at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Coca-Cola (KO) will outperform consumer defensive peers by at least 0.5%.

What happened

We said KO would be a winner. It closed -1.64% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result -1.64% @ 91.18

We said

PayPal (PYPL) will outpace the payment processing sector tomorrow.

What happened

We said PYPL would be a winner. It closed +2.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +2.00% @ 56.09

We said

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) will post another positive session.

What happened

We said CDNS would be a winner. It closed +6.49% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +6.49% @ 343.08

We said

IBM (IBM) will outperform the broader enterprise hardware index.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed -1.26% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result -1.26% @ 250.24

We said

Visa (V) will advance into the market close.

What happened

We said V would be a winner. It closed -0.55% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result -0.55% @ 401.94

We said

Boeing (BA) will lag the industrial sector by more than 1.5%.

What happened

We said BA would be a loser. It closed -10.70% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result -10.70% @ 168.16

We said

United Parcel Service (UPS) will finish lower on declining freight margins.

What happened

We said UPS would be a loser. It closed +5.79% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +5.79% @ 106.13

We said

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) will trade down on base metals weakness.

What happened

We said FCX would be a loser. It closed +1.20% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +1.20% @ 65.94

We said

Whirlpool (WHR) will extend losses following weak home appliance replacement demand.

What happened

We said WHR would be a loser. It closed +3.76% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +3.76% @ 27.45

We said

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) will underperform airline peers post-earnings.

What happened

We said JBLU would be a loser. It closed +18.99% while the S&P 500 did +0.60%.

Result +18.99% @ 2.82

We said

Seagate Technology (STX) will see a price swing exceeding 3.5% after reporting.

What happened

We said STX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.67%.

Result +3.67% @ 667.85

We said

Enphase Energy (ENPH) will swing more than 4.0% post-close.

What happened

We said ENPH would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.98%.

Result -1.98% @ 29.76

We said

F5 Inc (FFIV) will experience an after-hours move of at least 3.0%.

What happened

We said FFIV would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.49%.

Result -0.48% @ 459.36

We said

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) will experience elevated volume and wide intraday swings.

What happened

We said HOOD would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.85%.

Result +1.85% @ 94.56

We said

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) will move more than 2.8% on after-market numbers.

What happened

We said NXP would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.76%.

Result +0.76% @ 13.33

We said

Coca-Cola (KO) will beat consensus earnings per share by more than 3 cents.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

PayPal (PYPL) active merchant take rates will exceed Street forecasts.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Visa (V) cross-border travel volume will grow above 10% year over year.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boeing (BA) commercial airplane operating margins will miss consensus by more than 150 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Parcel Service (UPS) international shipping revenue will stabilize faster than expected.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Enphase Energy (ENPH) will provide fourth-quarter revenue guidance within consensus expectations.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Seagate Technology (STX) gross margin will cross 30% this quarter.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) net interest revenue will beat consensus estimates.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

JetBlue Airways (JBLU) will forecast break-even operating income for the final quarter.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gold byproduct credits will fully offset mining cost inflation.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That went against the call.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That matched the call.

We said

China pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That matched the call.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.60%. That went against the call.

We said

BA: we said beat (55% odds of a beat)

What happened

BA came in below expectations (-0.34 vs -0.2138 expected). We said beat.

We said

V: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

V came in in line with expectations (3.32 vs 3.2923 expected). We said beat.

We said

KO: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

KO came in in line with expectations (0.91 vs 0.9071 expected). We said beat.

We said

PYPL: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

PYPL came in above expectations (1.45 vs 1.3367 expected). We said beat.

We said

UPS: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

UPS came in above expectations (1.69 vs 1.6417 expected). We said beat.

We said

STX: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

STX came in above expectations (5.71 vs 5.1389 expected). We said beat.

We said

GOOGL earnings on 2026-10-28: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MSFT earnings on 2026-10-28: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

F earnings on 2026-10-28: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TMUS earnings on 2026-10-28: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AMZN earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LLY earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MA earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CAT earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

INTC earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MRK earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SBUX earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (63% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BMY earnings on 2026-10-29: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

XOM earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ABBV earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CVX earnings on 2026-10-30: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.