American Express and Tech Hardware Lead S&P 500 to a 0.3% Gain

We said

SPX up 0.32% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.52%, closing at 7623.68. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.52% @ 7623.68

We said

NDX up 0.45% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.00%, closing at 28957.53. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.00% @ 28957.53

We said

DJI up 0.28% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 1.23%, closing at 52215.16. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.24% @ 52215.16

We said

RUT up 0.25% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.32%, closing at 2775.18. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.32% @ 2775.18

We said

VIX down 2.20% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 3.84%, closing at 19.76. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.84% @ 19.76

We said

DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.19%, closing at 101.80. Right direction, off by 0.17 percentage points on size.

Result +0.19% @ 101.80

We said

US10Y up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.71%, closing at 4.99. Right direction, off by 0.51 percentage points on size.

Result +0.71% @ 4.99

We said

CL down 0.65% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 4.15%, closing at 103.60. We called the wrong direction.

Result +4.15% @ 103.60

We said

GC up 0.18% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 1.20%, closing at 4011.60. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.20% @ 4011.60

We said

SI down 0.40% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 1.42%, closing at 53.99. Right direction, off by 1.02 percentage points on size.

Result -1.42% @ 53.98

We said

BTC up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.07%, closing at 81257.76. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.07% @ 81257.76

We said

ETH up 0.15% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.31%, closing at 2393.70. Right direction, off by 0.16 percentage points on size.

Result +0.32% @ 2393.70

We said

NG down 1.20% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 8.98%, closing at 3.05. We called the wrong direction.

Result +8.98% @ 3.05

We said

Buy AXP at 325.17, take profit 334.57, cut it at 317.93

What happened

AXP traded 311.42–321.20 and closed 313.06. It hit our 317.93 exit first — the trade lost -2.23%.

Result -2.23% @ 313.06

We said

Buy IBM at 252.11, take profit 263.38, cut it at 243.44

What happened

IBM traded 247.03–254.71 and closed 253.58. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.58%.

Result +0.58% @ 253.58

We said

Buy BAH at 78.57, take profit 82.62, cut it at 75.46

What happened

BAH traded 73.06–79.40 and closed 78.32. It hit our 75.46 exit first — the trade lost -3.96%.

Result -3.96% @ 78.32

We said

Buy FCNCA at 2196.76, take profit 2266.4, cut it at 2143.21

What happened

FCNCA traded 2281.62–2429.96 and closed 2375.84. The price never reached our 2196.76 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 2375.84

We said

Buy MSFT at 521.08, take profit 539.53, cut it at 506.88

What happened

MSFT traded 515.70–525.77 and closed 524.51. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.66%.

Result +0.66% @ 524.51

We said

Buy RITM at 8.68, take profit 9.08, cut it at 8.37

What happened

RITM traded 9.00–9.44 and closed 9.39. The price never reached our 8.68 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 9.38

We said

Buy BCPC at 173.23, take profit 178.24, cut it at 169.38

What happened

BCPC traded 173.09–177.45 and closed 177.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.18%.

Result +2.18% @ 177.00

We said

Short GNTX at 21.74, take profit 20.98, cut it at 22.32

What happened

GNTX traded 19.98–20.82 and closed 20.66. The price never reached our 21.74 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 20.66

We said

Short ALV at 118.88, take profit 114.59, cut it at 122.18

What happened

ALV traded 110.00–116.95 and closed 114.71. The price never reached our 118.88 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 114.71

We said

Short CRI at 33.93, take profit 31.88, cut it at 35.5

What happened

CRI traded 31.98–33.14 and closed 32.61. The price never reached our 33.93 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 32.61

We said

Carter's (CRI) will decline at least 1.8% as wholesale apparel inventory orders soften.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Balchem (BCPC) will gain at least 0.6% on specialty animal nutrition and human health volume.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will add at least 0.5% on enterprise AI infrastructure commitments.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

American Express (AXP) will close up at least 1.5% following Q3 earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SLB (SLB) will close within 1.0% of its previous close after international drilling numbers.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will advance at least 0.8% as enterprise consulting pipelines expand.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gentex (GNTX) will fall at least 1.5% after reporting automotive mirror delivery volumes.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) will gain at least 1.0% on public sector analytics backlog expansion.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) will rise at least 0.7% on commercial loan quality metrics.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Autoliv (ALV) will trade lower by at least 1.2% following safety restraint shipment reports.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Hawaiian (FHB) will finish unchanged or higher by up to 0.6% on island deposit durability.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Rithm Capital (RITM) will rise at least 0.5% after reporting mortgage servicing rights stability.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury yield will move by fewer than 4 basis points over the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close between 103.00 and 104.00.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 (SPX) will close green with a move between 0.15% and 0.55%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

American Express (AXP) will be one of the top financial gainers, up over 1.5%.

What happened

We said AXP would be a winner. It closed -3.72% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result -3.72% @ 313.06

We said

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) will outperform defense peers, advancing over 1.0%.

What happened

We said BAH would be a winner. It closed -0.32% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result -0.32% @ 78.32

We said

IBM (IBM) will finish among the strongest large-cap tech names, rising over 0.8%.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed +0.58% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result +0.58% @ 253.58

We said

Rithm Capital (RITM) will outperform the mortgage REIT sector, rising over 0.5%.

What happened

We said RITM would be a winner. It closed +8.12% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result +8.12% @ 9.38

We said

Balchem (BCPC) will post gains above 0.6% on chemical margin preservation.

What happened

We said BCPC would be a winner. It closed +2.18% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result +2.18% @ 177.00

We said

Carter's (CRI) will decline more than 1.8% after morning trading.

What happened

We said CRI would be a loser. It closed -3.89% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result -3.89% @ 32.61

We said

Autoliv (ALV) will drop more than 1.2% following safety components delivery guidance.

What happened

We said ALV would be a loser. It closed -3.51% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result -3.51% @ 114.71

We said

Gentex (GNTX) will drop more than 1.5% as automotive electronic mirrors shipments stall.

What happened

We said GNTX would be a loser. It closed -4.97% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result -4.97% @ 20.66

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will slip more than 1.0% during the session.

What happened

We said NG would be a loser. It closed +8.98% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result +8.98% @ 3.05

We said

SLB (SLB) will lag the broader market, finishing flat to down 0.5%.

What happened

We said SLB would be a loser. It closed +7.06% while the S&P 500 did -0.52%.

Result +7.06% @ 53.05

We said

American Express (AXP) intraday price range will exceed 2.8%.

What happened

We said AXP would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.72%.

Result -3.72% @ 313.06

We said

Autoliv (ALV) will see intraday price swings exceeding 2.5%.

What happened

We said ALV would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.51%.

Result -3.51% @ 114.71

We said

Carter's (CRI) will experience an intraday range wider than 3.0%.

What happened

We said CRI would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.89%.

Result -3.89% @ 32.61

We said

Gentex (GNTX) intraday spread will exceed 2.2%.

What happened

We said GNTX would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.97%.

Result -4.97% @ 20.66

We said

SLB (SLB) will trade through an intraday range of at least 2.4%.

What happened

We said SLB would swing hard (3%+). It moved +7.06%.

Result +7.06% @ 53.05

We said

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) raises its full-year EPS guidance range by more than 2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) reports net interest income beating consensus by 3% or more.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

American Express (AXP) reports net credit charge-offs below 2.0% of total card loans.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gentex (GNTX) maintains full-year gross margins above 34.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

US Flash Manufacturing PMI prints above 51.5.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SLB (SLB) full-year international margin guidance direction remains unpredictable.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The direction of the 10-Year Treasury yield following S&P Global Flash PMI releases is a coin toss.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Whether Gentex (GNTX) finishes green or red on the day remains completely balanced.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) daily closing direction relative to the 84,000 level is evenly split.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Carter's (CRI) wholesale inventory guidance will meet or miss lowered expectations.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Consumer pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. That went against the call.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. That went against the call.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.52%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AXP: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

AXP came in above expectations (4.68 vs 4.5287 expected). We said beat.

We said

SLB: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

SLB came in above expectations (0.64 vs 0.6216 expected). We said beat.

We said

ALV: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

ALV came in below expectations (2.19 vs 2.3351 expected). We said beat.

We said

BAH: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

BAH came in above expectations (1.76 vs 1.5076 expected). We said beat.

We said

CRI: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

CRI came in above expectations (0.26 vs 0.0623 expected). We said beat.

We said

FCNCA: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

FCNCA came in above expectations (55.37 vs 47.3986 expected). We said beat.

We said

FLG: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

FLG came in below expectations (0.01 vs 0.0797 expected). We said beat.

We said

GNTX: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

GNTX came in below expectations (0.47 vs 0.5134 expected). We said beat.

We said

RITM: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

RITM came in above expectations (0.55 vs 0.5059 expected). We said beat.

We said

BCPC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

BCPC came in in line with expectations (1.57 vs 1.5657 expected). We said beat.

We said

CVEO: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

CVEO came in below expectations (-0.23 vs -0.153 expected). We said beat.

We said

FHB: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

FHB came in below expectations (0.52 vs 0.5876 expected). We said beat.

We said

GRC: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

GRC came in above expectations (0.86 vs 0.7104 expected). We said beat.

We said

SIFY: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

SIFY came in above expectations (0.012 vs 0 expected). We said beat.

We said

VRTS: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

VRTS came in below expectations (5.54 vs 6.2075 expected). We said beat.