S&P 500 Gains 0.3% as Industrial Earnings Lift Big Caps

We said

SPX up 0.28% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 1.21%, closing at 7663.43. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.21% @ 7663.43

We said

NDX up 0.35% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 2.90%, closing at 28958.69. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.90% @ 28958.69

We said

DJI up 0.32% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.02%, closing at 52867.98. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.

Result +0.02% @ 52867.98

We said

RUT up 0.25% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.11%, closing at 2784.14. Right direction, off by 0.14 percentage points on size.

Result +0.11% @ 2784.14

We said

VIX down 1.45% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 13.37%, closing at 18.91. We called the wrong direction.

Result +13.37% @ 18.91

We said

DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.13%, closing at 101.65. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.13% @ 101.65

We said

US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 3.75%, closing at 4.95. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.75% @ 4.95

We said

CL up 0.45% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 2.33%, closing at 99.41. Right direction, off by 1.88 percentage points on size.

Result +2.33% @ 99.41

We said

GC up 0.22% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 2.56%, closing at 4043.80. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.56% @ 4043.80

We said

SI up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 4.72%, closing at 54.71. We called the wrong direction.

Result -4.72% @ 54.71

We said

BTC up 0.45% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 3.21%, closing at 81315.06. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.21% @ 81315.06

We said

ETH up 0.55% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 3.54%, closing at 2383.24. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.54% @ 2383.24

We said

NG down 0.65% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 0.22%, closing at 2.78. Right direction, off by 0.43 percentage points on size.

Result -0.21% @ 2.78

We said

Buy GD at 344.71, take profit 354.29, cut it at 337.34

What happened

GD traded 345.17–351.15 and closed 350.76. The price never reached our 344.71 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 350.75

We said

Buy HON at 214.73, take profit 221.58, cut it at 209.47

What happened

HON traded 205.20–218.55 and closed 218.31. It hit our 209.47 exit first — the trade lost -2.45%.

Result -2.45% @ 218.31

We said

Buy PG at 156.84, take profit 160.96, cut it at 153.66

What happened

PG traded 161.78–166.85 and closed 165.60. The price never reached our 156.84 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 165.60

We said

Buy UNP at 287.87, take profit 294.55, cut it at 282.72

What happened

UNP traded 278.59–299.38 and closed 298.09. It hit our 282.72 exit first — the trade lost -1.79%.

Result -1.79% @ 298.09

We said

Buy IBM at 251.46, take profit 261.52, cut it at 243.73

What happened

IBM traded 241.24–256.27 and closed 252.19. It hit our 243.73 exit first — the trade lost -3.07%.

Result -3.07% @ 252.19

We said

Buy CBRE at 134.65, take profit 141.8, cut it at 129.15

What happened

CBRE traded 129.15–134.40 and closed 131.24. It hit our 129.15 exit first — the trade lost -4.08%.

Result -4.08% @ 131.24

We said

Buy LMT at 551.51, take profit 570.15, cut it at 537.17

What happened

LMT traded 577.50–607.99 and closed 590.20. The price never reached our 551.51 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 590.20

We said

Short AAL at 12.23, take profit 11.41, cut it at 12.87

What happened

AAL traded 11.70–12.70 and closed 12.60. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.03%.

Result -3.02% @ 12.60

We said

Short DOW at 30.38, take profit 29.13, cut it at 31.34

What happened

DOW traded 29.83–31.83 and closed 31.81. It hit our 31.34 exit first — the trade lost -3.16%.

Result -3.16% @ 31.81

We said

Short CMCSA at 22.08, take profit 21.1, cut it at 22.83

What happened

CMCSA traded 22.00–23.29 and closed 22.84. It hit our 22.83 exit first — the trade lost -3.40%.

Result -3.40% @ 22.84

We said

Honeywell (HON) will close green following morning results

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Union Pacific (UNP) will rise at least 0.8% tomorrow

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Dynamics (GD) will beat quarterly operating estimates and trade higher

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Procter & Gamble (PG) will gain over 0.5% after reporting pre-market

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Lockheed Martin (LMT) will close up following its quarterly release

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

American Airlines (AAL) will drop by more than 1.5% after results

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Dow Inc (DOW) will underperform the Materials sector benchmark

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Valero Energy (VLO) will finish green after morning figures

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CBRE Group (CBRE) will rise by at least 1.0% tomorrow

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Comcast (CMCSA) will decline after reporting third-quarter metrics

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will add at least 0.6% in regular trading

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close in positive territory tomorrow

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will trade within a tight ±0.7% daily range

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Newmont (NEM) will experience intraday range expansion over 2.0% after close

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will outperform the S&P 500

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Omnicom Group (OMC) will beat consensus advertising margins

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Dynamics (GD) will be among the day's strongest industrial gainers

What happened

We said GD would be a winner. It closed +1.75% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +1.75% @ 350.75

We said

Union Pacific (UNP) will clear its opening price by over 1.0%

What happened

We said UNP would be a winner. It closed +3.55% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +3.55% @ 298.09

We said

Honeywell (HON) will gain between 1.0% and 2.5% on the session

What happened

We said HON would be a winner. It closed +1.67% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +1.67% @ 218.31

We said

CBRE Group (CBRE) will finish in the top quartile of the S&P 500

What happened

We said CBRE would be a winner. It closed -2.53% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result -2.53% @ 131.24

We said

Procter & Gamble (PG) will close higher on consumer staple resilience

What happened

We said PG would be a winner. It closed +5.59% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +5.59% @ 165.60

We said

American Airlines (AAL) will decline more than 1.5% after opening

What happened

We said AAL would be a loser. It closed +2.94% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +2.94% @ 12.60

We said

Dow Inc (DOW) will slide lower on commoditized chemical margin pressure

What happened

We said DOW would be a loser. It closed +4.71% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +4.71% @ 31.81

We said

Comcast (CMCSA) will shed value during regular market hours

What happened

We said CMCSA would be a loser. It closed +3.44% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +3.44% @ 22.84

We said

Natural Gas (NG) futures will slip by at least 0.5%

What happened

We said NG would be a loser. It closed -0.22% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result -0.21% @ 2.78

We said

Omnicom Group (OMC) will underperform peers heading into the evening close

What happened

We said OMC would be a loser. It closed +2.65% while the S&P 500 did -1.21%.

Result +2.65% @ 82.63

We said

American Airlines (AAL) will trade in a range wider than 3.5%

What happened

We said AAL would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.94%.

Result +2.94% @ 12.60

We said

Newmont (NEM) will swing more than 3.0% in after-hours trade

What happened

We said NEM would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.75%.

Result -2.75% @ 113.96

We said

Valero Energy (VLO) will see a daily trading band of at least 2.5%

What happened

We said VLO would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.43%.

Result -2.43% @ 426.13

We said

Dow Inc (DOW) will experience an intraday move exceeding 2.2%

What happened

We said DOW would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.71%.

Result +4.71% @ 31.81

We said

CBRE Group (CBRE) will fluctuate more than 2.8% from high to low

What happened

We said CBRE would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.53%.

Result -2.53% @ 131.24

We said

Procter & Gamble (PG) will deliver gross margins that exceed consensus estimates by 40 basis points

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Dynamics (GD) aerospace unit margins will top consensus forecasts

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Honeywell (HON) will report organic sales growth above 4%

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Union Pacific (UNP) will beat third-quarter operating ratio targets

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

American Airlines (AAL) will offer better-than-expected fourth-quarter passenger revenue guidance

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-Year Treasury yield will stay locked inside a tiny four basis point trading range

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude oil (CL) will close virtually flat on conflicting inventory and geopolitical signals

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade without directional progress

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Technology sector (XLK) breadth will remain narrow during the session

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will trade within ±1.0% of its morning open

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That went against the call.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That went against the call.

We said

Middle East pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. That matched the call.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.21%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

PG: we said beat (76% odds of a beat)

What happened

PG came in above expectations (2 vs 1.94 expected). We said beat.

We said

AAL: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

AAL came in above expectations (-0.28 vs -0.3522 expected). We said beat.

We said

CMCSA: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

CMCSA came in above expectations (1.07 vs 1.0125 expected). We said beat.

We said

GD: we said beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

GD came in above expectations (4.24 vs 4.0905 expected). We said beat.

We said

HON: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

HON came in above expectations (2.27 vs 2.1885 expected). We said beat.

We said

LMT: we said beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

LMT came in above expectations (7.97 vs 7.5016 expected). We said beat.

We said

UNP: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

UNP came in in line with expectations (3.53 vs 3.5078 expected). We said beat.

We said

VLO: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

VLO came in above expectations (23.9 vs 21.2818 expected). We said beat.

We said

BX: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

BX came in above expectations (1.32 vs 1.2962 expected). We said beat.

We said

NSC: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

NSC came in above expectations (3.62 vs 3.5056 expected). We said beat.

We said

CBRE: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

CBRE came in above expectations (2.05 vs 2.0078 expected). We said beat.

We said

DOW: we said beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

DOW came in above expectations (0.71 vs 0.6441 expected). We said beat.

We said

NEM: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

NEM came in above expectations (2.1 vs 2.0092 expected). We said beat.

We said

OMC: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)

What happened

OMC came in above expectations (2.65 vs 2.6062 expected). We said beat.

We said

PCG: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

PCG came in below expectations (0.41 vs 0.4229 expected). We said beat.

We said

DECK: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

DECK came in above expectations (0.94 vs 0.8892 expected). We said beat.

We said

AXP earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SLB earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.