The Report Card · Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Dow Rises 0.3% While Tesla and Meta Cap Nasdaq Gains
We place the probability of a green S&P 500 close at 52% as industrial and healthcare earnings offset tech caution.
Accuracy
61%
Correct
28/46
Brier score
0.234
lower is better
By Category
10/12
83% accuracy
4/10
40% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
5/5
100% accuracy
8/12
67% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.15% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 0.58%, closing at 7757.17. Right direction, off by 0.43 percentage points on size.
Result +0.58% @ 7757.17
We said
NDX up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 1.13%, closing at 29822.52. Right direction, off by 1.03 percentage points on size.
Result +1.13% @ 29822.52
We said
DJI up 0.28% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 0.69%, closing at 52856.09. Right direction, off by 0.41 percentage points on size.
Result +0.69% @ 52856.09
We said
RUT up 0.12% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.28%, closing at 2781.17. Right direction, off by 0.16 percentage points on size.
Result +0.28% @ 2781.17
We said
VIX down 0.85% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 3.41%, closing at 16.72. Right direction, off by 2.56 percentage points on size.
Result -3.41% @ 16.72
We said
DXY up 0.02% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.03%, closing at 101.70. Both the call and the day were flat.
Result -0.03% @ 101.70
We said
US10Y up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.57%, closing at 5.15. Right direction, off by 0.57 percentage points on size.
Result +0.57% @ 5.15
We said
CL up 0.45% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 3.84%, closing at 97.88. We called the wrong direction.
Result -3.84% @ 97.88
We said
GC up 0.18% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 0.23%, closing at 4152.10. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.
Result +0.23% @ 4152.10
We said
SI down 0.05% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 0.54%, closing at 58.02. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.54% @ 58.02
We said
BTC up 0.35% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 1.83%, closing at 84461.42. Right direction, off by 1.48 percentage points on size.
Result +1.83% @ 84461.42
We said
ETH up 0.25% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 1.81%, closing at 2490.97. Right direction, off by 1.56 percentage points on size.
Result +1.81% @ 2490.97
We said
NG down 0.40% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 6.45%, closing at 2.77. Right direction, off by 6.05 percentage points on size.
Result -6.45% @ 2.77
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy IBM at 241.92, take profit 252.35, cut it at 233.91
What happened
IBM traded 240.62–251.75 and closed 251.06. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.78%.
Result +3.78% @ 251.06
We said
Buy ABT at 102.45, take profit 106.6, cut it at 99.26
What happened
ABT traded 97.67–106.35 and closed 100.56. It hit our 99.26 exit first — the trade lost -3.11%.
Result -3.11% @ 100.56
We said
Buy T at 23.42, take profit 24.48, cut it at 22.61
What happened
T traded 21.79–22.62 and closed 21.91. It hit our 22.61 exit first — the trade lost -3.46%.
Result -3.46% @ 21.91
We said
Buy NEE at 78.86, take profit 81.17, cut it at 77.09
What happened
NEE traded 77.93–79.85 and closed 78.25. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.77%.
Result -0.77% @ 78.25
We said
Buy DHR at 224.24, take profit 234.89, cut it at 216.06
What happened
DHR traded 219.00–234.37 and closed 234.02. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +4.36%.
Result +4.36% @ 234.02
We said
Short TXN at 277.78, take profit 262.75, cut it at 289.34
What happened
TXN traded 277.37–289.30 and closed 284.65. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.47%.
Result -2.47% @ 284.65
We said
Buy CSX at 48.08, take profit 49.28, cut it at 47.15
What happened
CSX traded 47.85–48.48 and closed 48.40. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.67%.
Result +0.67% @ 48.40
We said
Buy LRCX at 263.45, take profit 286.53, cut it at 245.7
What happened
LRCX traded 259.06–270.90 and closed 260.81. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 260.81
We said
Buy TMO at 687.37, take profit 721.33, cut it at 661.25
What happened
TMO traded 662.78–705.78 and closed 694.29. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.01%.
Result +1.01% @ 694.29
We said
Short TSLA at 373.71, take profit 354.58, cut it at 388.42
What happened
TSLA traded 380.51–388.84 and closed 386.47. It hit our 388.42 exit first — the trade lost -3.94%.
Result -3.94% @ 386.47
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
The 10-Year US Treasury yield will remain between 4.05% and 4.15%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
WTI crude oil will settle below 73 dollars per barrel.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will outperform the Technology ETF (XLK).
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) will close up at least 1.0% following morning earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Danaher (DHR) will close green after reporting pre-market results.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
AT&T (T) will advance at least 0.8% during regular trading hours.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will finish regular market hours up at least 0.5% ahead of after-close earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Tesla (TSLA) will trade within a tight 2.5% band during regular trading before its report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Meta Platforms (META) will close regular trading up less than 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Texas Instruments (TXN) will finish regular hours flat within a 1.0% range.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
NextEra Energy (NEE) will close up at least 0.6% after reporting morning numbers.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) will close green after its morning report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Elevance Health (ELV) will avoid a drop greater than 1.5% at Wednesday's close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Lam Research (LRCX) will hold above its 50-day moving average ahead of results.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CSX (CSX) will trade higher by at least 0.4% during regular trading hours.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) will gain at least 1.0% on Wednesday.
What happened
We said ABT would be a winner. It closed -1.84% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.
Result -1.84% @ 100.56
We said
NextEra Energy (NEE) will gain at least 0.6% following its earnings release.
What happened
We said NEE would be a winner. It closed -0.77% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.
Result -0.77% @ 78.25
We said
AT&T (T) will close higher by at least 0.8% post-earnings.
What happened
We said AT would be a winner. It closed -0.37% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.
Result -0.37% @ 18.82
We said
Texas Instruments (TXN) will decline at least 0.5% ahead of after-hours numbers.
What happened
We said TXN would be a loser. It closed +2.47% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.
Result +2.47% @ 284.65
We said
Natural gas futures will decline by at least 0.4%.
What happened
No ticker found in this call.
We said
Consumer discretionary stocks in the XLY fund will lag consumer staples in XLP.
What happened
We said XLY would be a loser. It closed +0.03% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result +0.04% @ 115.54
We said
Tesla (TSLA) intraday high-to-low trading range will exceed 3.0%.
What happened
We said TSLA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.41%.
Result +3.41% @ 386.47
We said
Meta Platforms (META) intraday price range will exceed 2.2%.
What happened
We said META would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.47%.
Result +0.47% @ 697.52
We said
Lam Research (LRCX) will see an intraday spread greater than 2.8%.
What happened
We said LRCX would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.00%.
Result -1.00% @ 260.81
We said
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) medical device revenue will exceed consensus by more than 2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
EIA crude oil report shows a weekly inventory drawdown exceeding 2.5 million barrels.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Danaher (DHR) raises full-year core revenue guidance above prior ranges.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Tesla (TSLA) automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits will beat 15.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Meta Platforms (META) raises its full-year capital expenditure forecast midpoint.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Elevance Health (ELV) medical loss ratio will print below 87.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Earnings pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
AI pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Inflation pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Consumer pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
META: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
META came in below expectations (6.18 vs 7.3594 expected). We said beat.
We said
TSLA: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
TSLA came in below expectations (0.33 vs 0.5191 expected). We said beat.
We said
ABT: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
ABT came in in line with expectations (1.42 vs 1.4297 expected). We said beat.
We said
ELV: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
ELV came in above expectations (6.99 vs 4.7291 expected). We said beat.
We said
IBM: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
IBM came in below expectations (2.93 vs 2.9984 expected). We said beat.
We said
T: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
T came in above expectations (0.65 vs 0.6106 expected). We said beat.
We said
TMO: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
TMO came in above expectations (6.68 vs 6.4673 expected). We said beat.
We said
TXN: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
TXN came in above expectations (2.14 vs 1.9543 expected). We said beat.
We said
DHR: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
DHR came in above expectations (2.11 vs 1.9359 expected). We said beat.
We said
NEE: we said beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
NEE came in above expectations (1.24 vs 1.188 expected). We said beat.
We said
LRCX: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
LRCX came in above expectations (1.82 vs 1.7172 expected). We said beat.
We said
CSX: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
CSX came in above expectations (0.54 vs 0.5224 expected). We said beat.
We said
CMCSA earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HON earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
LMT earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
PG earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
VLO earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AXP earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (73% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SLB earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.