S&P 500 Gains 0.4% as Early Earnings Beats Drive Sentiment

We said

SPX up 0.40% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.28%, closing at 7712.57. Right direction, off by 0.12 percentage points on size.

Result +0.28% @ 7712.57

We said

NDX up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.13%, closing at 29490.28. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.13% @ 29490.28

We said

DJI up 0.50% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 1.02%, closing at 52495.88. Right direction, off by 0.52 percentage points on size.

Result +1.02% @ 52495.88

We said

RUT up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 1.65%, closing at 2773.42. Right direction, off by 1.35 percentage points on size.

Result +1.65% @ 2773.42

We said

VIX down 2.00% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 6.13%, closing at 17.31. Right direction, off by 4.13 percentage points on size.

Result -6.13% @ 17.31

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.26%, closing at 101.71. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.26% @ 101.71

We said

US10Y up 0.40% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 0.37%, closing at 5.12. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.37% @ 5.12

We said

CL up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 5.46%, closing at 98.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result -5.46% @ 98.00

We said

GC down 0.30% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.47%, closing at 4140.50. Right direction, off by 0.17 percentage points on size.

Result -0.47% @ 4140.50

We said

SI down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 1.77%, closing at 57.98. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.77% @ 57.98

We said

BTC up 0.20% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.94%, closing at 82625.03. Right direction, off by 0.74 percentage points on size.

Result +0.94% @ 82625.03

We said

ETH up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 1.49%, closing at 2440.61. Right direction, off by 1.29 percentage points on size.

Result +1.49% @ 2440.61

We said

NG down 1.00% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.96%, closing at 3.00. Right direction, off by 0.96 percentage points on size.

Result -1.96% @ 3.00

We said

Buy KEY at 19.92, take profit 20.54, cut it at 19.44

What happened

KEY traded 20.04–20.82 and closed 20.81. The price never reached our 19.92 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 20.81

We said

Buy XLI at 166.68, take profit 170.83, cut it at 163.49

What happened

XLI traded 164.96–168.16 and closed 166.80. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.07%.

Result +0.07% @ 166.80

We said

Buy PM at 201.05, take profit 209.37, cut it at 194.64

What happened

PM traded 199.35–203.03 and closed 199.90. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.57%.

Result -0.57% @ 199.90

We said

Buy MSCI at 563.49, take profit 581.18, cut it at 549.9

What happened

MSCI traded 574.55–605.60 and closed 591.69. The price never reached our 563.49 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 591.69

We said

Short NFLX at 69.85, take profit 67.24, cut it at 71.86

What happened

NFLX traded 68.20–70.66 and closed 68.69. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.66%.

Result +1.66% @ 68.69

We said

Buy UAL at 95.6, take profit 101.83, cut it at 90.81

What happened

UAL traded 94.54–101.88 and closed 97.77. It hit our 101.83 take-profit — the trade worked, +6.52%.

Result +6.52% @ 97.77

We said

Buy ALLY at 37.59, take profit 38.9, cut it at 36.58

What happened

ALLY traded 36.56–38.42 and closed 37.97. It hit our 36.58 exit first — the trade lost -2.69%.

Result -2.69% @ 37.97

We said

Short XLC at 110.09, take profit 107.39, cut it at 112.17

What happened

XLC traded 109.65–110.84 and closed 110.19. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.09%.

Result -0.09% @ 110.19

We said

Buy GM at 82.75, take profit 86.06, cut it at 80.21

What happened

GM traded 75.10–78.95 and closed 77.09. It hit our 80.21 exit first — the trade lost -3.07%.

Result -3.07% @ 77.09

We said

Buy RTX at 192.11, take profit 198.05, cut it at 187.55

What happened

RTX traded 188.08–197.00 and closed 193.34. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.64%.

Result +0.64% @ 193.34

We said

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) will close up at least 2.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Motors (GM) will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will trade down at least 3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

KeyCorp (KEY) will close up at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) will close up at least 2% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) will close up at least 2% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Ally Financial (ALLY) will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Philip Morris International (PM) will close up at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Equifax (EFX) will close down at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CBSH) will close up at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Motors (GM) will raise its full-year guidance by at least 5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will see a downgrade from at least one major analyst firm by Wednesday morning.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will struggle to close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude Oil (CL) will hold above $85 per barrel today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) will close up at least 2.5% today.

What happened

We said RTX would be a winner. It closed +0.64% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +0.64% @ 193.34

We said

General Motors (GM) will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

We said GM would be a winner. It closed -6.84% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -6.84% @ 77.09

We said

KeyCorp (KEY) will close up at least 1% today.

What happened

We said KEY would be a winner. It closed +4.47% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +4.47% @ 20.81

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will trade down at least 3% tomorrow.

What happened

We said NFLX would be a loser. It closed -1.66% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result -1.66% @ 68.69

We said

Equifax (EFX) will close down at least 1% today.

What happened

We said EFX would be a loser. It closed +11.33% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result +11.33% @ 176.54

We said

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) will close down at least 0.5% today.

What happened

We said SPDR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.28%.

Result 0.00%

We said

Netflix (NFLX) shares will move by more than 5% tomorrow.

What happened

We said NFLX would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.66%.

Result -1.66% @ 68.69

We said

General Motors (GM) shares will move by more than 3% today.

What happened

We said GM would swing hard (3%+). It moved -6.84%.

Result -6.84% @ 77.09

We said

Raytheon Technologies (RTX) shares will move by more than 2% today.

What happened

We said RTX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.64%.

Result +0.64% @ 193.34

We said

CapitaLand Financial (COF) will report an unexpected earnings beat and raise guidance after market close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) will announce a significant new partnership or fleet expansion alongside earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will announce a major new content deal or strategic acquisition during its earnings call, boosting shares despite subscriber numbers.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The broader impact of the latest Middle East geopolitical developments on oil prices (CL) for the week.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Whether consumer discretionary spending can maintain its current pace through the end of the year.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The market's reaction to mixed earnings reports from various regional banks throughout the day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Geopolitical pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Financials pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Industrials pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Technology Growth pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed Policy pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.28%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

TSLA earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GM: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

GM came in in line with expectations (3.7 vs 3.7366 expected). We said beat.

We said

NFLX: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

NFLX came in above expectations (0.87 vs 0.8388 expected). We said beat.

We said

RTX: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

RTX came in above expectations (2.26 vs 1.7938 expected). We said beat.

We said

KEY: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

KEY came in above expectations (0.51 vs 0.47 expected). We said beat.

We said

MSCI: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

MSCI came in in line with expectations (5.11 vs 5.1201 expected). We said beat.

We said

UAL: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

UAL came in below expectations (2.54 vs 2.6127 expected). We said beat.

We said

ALLY: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

ALLY came in below expectations (1.34 vs 1.3667 expected). We said beat.

We said

PM: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

PM came in above expectations (2.2 vs 2.1077 expected). We said beat.

We said

META earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ABT earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

IBM earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TMO earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TXN earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

T earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HON earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LMT earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CMCSA earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PG earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AXP earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

XOM earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SLB earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.