S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as GE Earnings Lift Industrials

We said

SPX up 0.40% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.41%, closing at 7690.73. Right direction, off by 0.01 percentage points on size.

Result +0.41% @ 7690.73

We said

NDX up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 1.17%, closing at 29529.34. Right direction, off by 0.87 percentage points on size.

Result +1.17% @ 29529.34

We said

DJI up 0.50% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.07%, closing at 51966.03. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.07% @ 51966.03

We said

RUT up 0.20% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.25%, closing at 2728.30. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.

Result +0.26% @ 2728.30

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 7.75%, closing at 18.44. Right direction, off by 5.25 percentage points on size.

Result -7.75% @ 18.44

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.15%, closing at 101.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.15% @ 101.99

We said

US10Y up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.75%, closing at 5.14. Right direction, off by 0.25 percentage points on size.

Result +0.74% @ 5.14

We said

CL up 0.80% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 2.91%, closing at 98.46. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.91% @ 98.46

We said

GC down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.55%, closing at 4158.00. Right direction, off by 0.35 percentage points on size.

Result -0.55% @ 4158.00

We said

SI down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.32%, closing at 57.17. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.32% @ 57.17

We said

BTC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.13%, closing at 81912.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.13% @ 81912.00

We said

ETH up 0.40% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.40%, closing at 2399.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.40% @ 2399.11

We said

NG up 0.60% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 2.50%, closing at 3.04. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.50% @ 3.04

We said

Buy GE at 313.83, take profit 324.81, cut it at 305.4

What happened

GE traded 310.64–315.34 and closed 311.28. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.81%.

Result -0.81% @ 311.28

We said

Buy FITB at 50.37, take profit 51.99, cut it at 49.12

What happened

FITB traded 50.14–51.47 and closed 50.51. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.28%.

Result +0.28% @ 50.51

We said

Buy XLI at 167.76, take profit 171.94, cut it at 164.55

What happened

XLI traded 166.53–168.47 and closed 166.68. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.64%.

Result -0.64% @ 166.68

We said

Buy STLD at 240.54, take profit 251.87, cut it at 231.82

What happened

STLD traded 240.44–248.54 and closed 245.17. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.92%.

Result +1.93% @ 245.17

We said

Short DX at 10.93, take profit 10.42, cut it at 11.32

What happened

DX traded 10.31–10.62 and closed 10.56. The price never reached our 10.93 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 10.56

We said

Buy CL at 94.11, take profit 100.2, cut it at 89.43

What happened

CL traded 96.72–99.71 and closed 98.46. The price never reached our 94.11 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 98.46

We said

Buy ZION at 63.37, take profit 65.49, cut it at 61.74

What happened

ZION traded 62.88–63.51 and closed 63.14. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.36%.

Result -0.36% @ 63.14

We said

Short WAL at 74.51, take profit 70.95, cut it at 77.25

What happened

WAL traded 73.35–74.46 and closed 73.63. The price never reached our 74.51 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 73.63

We said

Buy XLF at 55.52, take profit 56.66, cut it at 54.65

What happened

XLF traded 55.03–55.50 and closed 55.06. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.83%.

Result -0.83% @ 55.06

We said

Short SPWR at 0.246, take profit 0.2165, cut it at 0.2706

What happened

SPWR traded 0.23–0.27 and closed 0.24. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +4.43%.

Result +4.43% @ 0.24

We said

Waldo's Dollar General (WAL) will beat earnings per share estimates by over 10%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Electric (GE) will trade up at least 2% in the pre-market.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Financial Bancorp (FITB) will close higher by at least 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPX).

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Valmont Industries (VMI) will see increased investor interest.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Steel Dynamics (STLD) shares will close up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) will close green.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Zions Bancorporation (ZION) will close flat to slightly positive.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) will close above its opening price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) futures will trade higher than their opening price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Busey Corporation (FUSE) will close up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) will close higher by at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Watsco (WSO) will see increased trading volume.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US10Y Treasury yield will rise by at least 2 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) will hold gains through the close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will trade in a narrow range around its opening price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Electric (GE) shares will close up more than 3%.

What happened

We said GE would be a winner. It closed -0.81% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result -0.81% @ 311.28

We said

Steel Dynamics (STLD) will see its shares rise by at least 1%.

What happened

We said STLD would be a winner. It closed +1.92% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result +1.93% @ 245.17

We said

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) will gain at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said FITB would be a winner. It closed +0.28% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result +0.28% @ 50.51

We said

Shares of SolarEdge Technologies (SPWR) will close down by at least 2%.

What happened

We said SPWR would be a loser. It closed -4.43% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result -4.43% @ 0.24

We said

AeroGrow International (AERO) will decline by more than 1%.

What happened

We said AERO would be a loser. It closed -0.56% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result -0.56% @ 15.89

We said

DXC Technology (DX) will experience a slight sell-off.

What happened

We said DXC would be a loser. It closed +4.70% while the S&P 500 did +0.41%.

Result +4.70% @ 14.26

We said

General Electric (GE) will trade with a daily range exceeding 4%.

What happened

We said GE would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.81%.

Result -0.81% @ 311.28

We said

First Financial Bancorp (FITB) will see early trading volatility.

What happened

We said FITB would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.28%.

Result +0.28% @ 50.51

We said

Zions Bancorporation (ZION) will exhibit an elevated after-hours trading range.

What happened

We said ZION would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.36%.

Result -0.36% @ 63.14

We said

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) will announce a major new route expansion before its Tuesday earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) closes up more than 2.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The full impact of new financial regulations on regional banks.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The exact timing and magnitude of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The stability of global supply chains for industrial manufacturers.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. That matched the call.

We said

Industrial Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. That matched the call.

We said

Financial Sector Stability pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Middle East pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. That matched the call.

We said

Inflation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Housing pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.41%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

META earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TSLA earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GE: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

GE came in above expectations (2.02 vs 1.9151 expected). We said beat.

We said

FITB: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

FITB came in below expectations (0.85 vs 0.966 expected). We said beat.

We said

STLD: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

STLD came in above expectations (3.81 vs 3.7092 expected). We said beat.

We said

ZION: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

ZION came in above expectations (3.05 vs 1.8453 expected). We said beat.

We said

CLF: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

CLF came in below expectations (-0.25 vs -0.2045 expected). We said beat.

We said

DX: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

DX came in below expectations (0.36 vs 0.3852 expected). We said beat.

We said

BOKF: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

BOKF came in above expectations (2.92 vs 2.6225 expected). We said beat.

We said

FNB: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

FNB came in in line with expectations (0.42 vs 0.4233 expected). We said beat.

We said

RLI: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

RLI came in above expectations (0.83 vs 0.7309 expected). We said beat.

We said

WAL: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

WAL came in in line with expectations (2.36 vs 2.3832 expected). We said beat.

We said

WRB: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

WRB came in above expectations (1.27 vs 1.0956 expected). We said beat.

We said

AERO: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

AERO came in above expectations (-0.4 vs -0.4563 expected). We said beat.

We said

GM earnings on 2026-10-20: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NFLX earnings on 2026-10-20: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

RTX earnings on 2026-10-20: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ABT earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

IBM earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TMO earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TXN earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

T earnings on 2026-10-21: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CMCSA earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HON earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LMT earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PG earnings on 2026-10-22: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AXP earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SLB earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

XOM earnings on 2026-10-23: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.