S&P 500 Adds 0.4% As Regional Banks Report Solid Quarter

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 1.09%, closing at 7659.44. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.09% @ 7659.44

We said

NDX up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 2.50%, closing at 29187.55. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.50% @ 29187.55

We said

DJI up 0.30% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.34%, closing at 52002.41. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.34% @ 52002.41

We said

RUT up 0.60% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 1.66%, closing at 2721.37. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.66% @ 2721.37

We said

VIX down 2.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 21.45%, closing at 19.99. We called the wrong direction.

Result +21.45% @ 19.99

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.21%, closing at 101.78. Right direction, off by 0.11 percentage points on size.

Result -0.21% @ 101.78

We said

US10Y down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.18%, closing at 5.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.18% @ 5.10

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.07%, closing at 99.02. Right direction, off by 0.27 percentage points on size.

Result +1.07% @ 99.02

We said

GC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.44%, closing at 4188.60. Right direction, off by 0.14 percentage points on size.

Result +0.44% @ 4188.60

We said

SI up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.54%, closing at 57.15. Right direction, off by 0.54 percentage points on size.

Result +0.54% @ 57.15

We said

BTC up 0.70% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.67%, closing at 81589.39. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.67% @ 81589.39

We said

ETH up 0.80% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 1.06%, closing at 2414.60. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.06% @ 2414.60

We said

NG up 1.20% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 3.49%, closing at 3.12. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.49% @ 3.12

We said

Buy TRV at 383.89, take profit 394.14, cut it at 376.02

What happened

TRV traded 368.63–390.91 and closed 389.54. It hit our 376.02 exit first — the trade lost -2.05%.

Result -2.05% @ 389.54

We said

Buy MTB at 218.65, take profit 224.68, cut it at 214

What happened

MTB traded 212.46–223.46 and closed 215.28. It hit our 214 exit first — the trade lost -2.13%.

Result -2.13% @ 215.28

We said

Buy CFG at 63.43, take profit 65.54, cut it at 61.8

What happened

CFG traded 62.69–65.01 and closed 63.36. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.11%.

Result -0.11% @ 63.36

We said

Buy RF at 27.31, take profit 28.17, cut it at 26.65

What happened

RF traded 27.21–28.15 and closed 27.45. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.51%.

Result +0.51% @ 27.45

We said

Buy TFC at 46.57, take profit 48.01, cut it at 45.46

What happened

TFC traded 46.89–47.95 and closed 47.07. The price never reached our 46.57 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 47.07

We said

Buy XLF at 55.27, take profit 56.39, cut it at 54.41

What happened

XLF traded 55.19–56.03 and closed 55.52. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.45%.

Result +0.45% @ 55.52

We said

Buy XLRE at 41.99, take profit 42.96, cut it at 41.24

What happened

XLRE traded 41.95–42.49 and closed 42.16. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.40%.

Result +0.41% @ 42.16

We said

Buy SPY at 771.79, take profit 784.37, cut it at 762.14

What happened

SPY traded 760.64–773.23 and closed 763.25. It hit our 762.14 exit first — the trade lost -1.25%.

Result -1.25% @ 763.25

We said

Short DOGZ at 0.7999, take profit 0.7352, cut it at 0.8497

What happened

DOGZ traded 0.75–0.79 and closed 0.75. The price never reached our 0.7999 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 0.75

We said

Buy GC=F at 4191.4, take profit 4324.27, cut it at 4089.23

What happened

GC=F traded 4167.50–4220.20 and closed 4188.60. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.07%.

Result -0.07% @ 4188.60

We said

The S&P 500 will close above its 50-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Travelers (TRV) stock will trade up at least 1.5% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

M&T Bank (MTB) will see its share price increase by at least 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) will trade higher following its earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Financials sector (XLF) will be among the top three performing S&P 500 sectors.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) will close higher on the day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CFG Bank (CFG) stock will experience an upward move of at least 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy stocks (XLE) will maintain their recent positive momentum, closing up.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology sector (XLK) will close higher.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Real Estate (XLRE) will be a top-performing sector, closing up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Dollar Index (DXY) will close down for the day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will decline slightly.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The VIX will close below its previous day's closing level.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) will outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) futures will close higher than their previous settlement.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Travelers (TRV) will be a top performer in the S&P 500.

What happened

We said TRV would be a winner. It closed +1.47% while the S&P 500 did -1.09%.

Result +1.47% @ 389.54

We said

M&T Bank (MTB) shares will close up significantly.

What happened

We said M would be a winner. It closed -0.91% while the S&P 500 did -1.09%.

Result -0.91% @ 24.00

We said

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) will see a notable gain.

What happened

We said FITB would be a winner. It closed +0.04% while the S&P 500 did -1.09%.

Result +0.04% @ 50.37

We said

No specific S&P 500 components are expected to be significant losers.

What happened

We said S would be a loser. It closed -7.66% while the S&P 500 did -1.09%.

Result -7.66% @ 21.58

We said

ALOY stock will experience above-average volatility.

What happened

We said ALOY would swing hard (3%+). It moved +8.23%.

Result +8.23% @ 7.23

We said

DOGZ shares will show high price swings.

What happened

We said DOGZ would swing hard (3%+). It moved -6.24%.

Result -6.24% @ 0.75

We said

CLPS will see exaggerated price action.

What happened

We said CLPS would swing hard (3%+). It moved -9.79%.

Result -9.79% @ 0.92

We said

The S&P 500 could exceed a 0.7% gain.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The performance of small-cap financial stocks without clear earnings catalysts.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Season (Financials) pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

S&P 500 Technicals pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

VIX pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

10-Year Treasury Yield pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That matched the call.

We said

Dollar (DXY) pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Data pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Cryptocurrencies pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

Natural Gas pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Tensions pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -1.09%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

TRV: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

TRV came in above expectations (9.18 vs 7.4909 expected). We said beat.

We said

CFG: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

CFG came in in line with expectations (1.41 vs 1.4007 expected). We said beat.

We said

MTB: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

MTB came in above expectations (5.08 vs 5.0071 expected). We said beat.

We said

RF: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

RF came in above expectations (0.73 vs 0.6833 expected). We said beat.

We said

TFC: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

TFC came in above expectations (1.16 vs 1.1183 expected). We said beat.

We said

CAWW: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

CAWW came in in line with expectations (-0.03 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

EEFT: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

EEFT came in below expectations (2.82 vs 3.0281 expected). We said beat.

We said

ALOY: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

ALOY came in below expectations (-0.08 vs -0.051 expected). We said beat.

We said

BOTJ: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

BOTJ came in in line with expectations (0.19 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

CCBC: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

CCBC came in in line with expectations (0.49 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

CCFN earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

GBFH: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

GBFH came in below expectations (0.38 vs 0.493 expected). We said beat.

We said

PFIS: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

PFIS came in below expectations (1.48 vs 1.6677 expected). We said beat.

We said

SOND: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

SOND came in below expectations (-5.86 vs -3.0294 expected). We said beat.

We said

CLPS earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

DOGZ earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.