S&P 500 Rises 0.4% As Banks Beat EPS Estimates

We said

SPX up 0.40% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.33%, closing at 7744.06. Right direction, off by 0.07 percentage points on size.

Result +0.33% @ 7744.06

We said

NDX up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.05%, closing at 29935.59. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.05% @ 29935.59

We said

DJI up 0.50% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 1.08%, closing at 52177.69. Right direction, off by 0.58 percentage points on size.

Result +1.08% @ 52177.69

We said

RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 1.38%, closing at 2767.27. Right direction, off by 1.18 percentage points on size.

Result +1.38% @ 2767.27

We said

VIX down 2.00% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 2.43%, closing at 16.46. Right direction, off by 0.43 percentage points on size.

Result -2.43% @ 16.46

We said

DXY up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.51%, closing at 102.03. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.51% @ 102.03

We said

US10Y up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 1.95%, closing at 5.09. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.95% @ 5.09

We said

CL up 0.80% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.11%, closing at 96.15. Right direction, off by 0.31 percentage points on size.

Result +1.11% @ 96.15

We said

GC down 0.30% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 2.03%, closing at 4191.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.02% @ 4191.10

We said

SI down 0.60% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 3.60%, closing at 57.55. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.60% @ 57.55

We said

BTC up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.94%, closing at 82327.41. Right direction, off by 0.44 percentage points on size.

Result +0.94% @ 82327.41

We said

ETH up 0.70% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 1.74%, closing at 2460.31. Right direction, off by 1.04 percentage points on size.

Result +1.74% @ 2460.31

We said

NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.25%, closing at 3.24. Right direction, off by 1.25 percentage points on size.

Result +1.25% @ 3.24

We said

Buy PNC at 215.8, take profit 222.32, cut it at 210.78

What happened

PNC traded 209.60–218.90 and closed 214.94. It hit our 210.78 exit first — the trade lost -2.33%.

Result -2.33% @ 214.94

We said

Buy SCHW at 96.8, take profit 99.62, cut it at 94.63

What happened

SCHW traded 91.38–95.03 and closed 94.16. It hit our 94.63 exit first — the trade lost -2.24%.

Result -2.24% @ 94.16

We said

Buy MRSH at 178.4, take profit 183.68, cut it at 174.34

What happened

MRSH traded 182.80–191.04 and closed 186.54. The price never reached our 178.4 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 186.54

We said

Buy USB at 56.26, take profit 57.91, cut it at 54.99

What happened

USB traded 55.97–57.69 and closed 57.39. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.01%.

Result +2.01% @ 57.39

We said

Buy CMC at 65.29, take profit 68.42, cut it at 62.88

What happened

CMC traded 64.63–69.50 and closed 65.37. It hit our 68.42 take-profit — the trade worked, +4.79%.

Result +4.79% @ 65.37

We said

Buy MAN at 51.96, take profit 55.55, cut it at 49.2

What happened

MAN traded 42.65–48.03 and closed 43.74. It hit our 49.2 exit first — the trade lost -5.31%.

Result -5.31% @ 43.74

We said

Buy XLF at 54.52, take profit 55.61, cut it at 53.68

What happened

XLF traded 54.59–55.37 and closed 55.27. The price never reached our 54.52 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 55.27

We said

Buy IBM at 227.88, take profit 236.72, cut it at 221.07

What happened

IBM traded 226.01–234.12 and closed 234.12. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.74%.

Result +2.74% @ 234.12

We said

Short JBHT at 232.16, take profit 222.73, cut it at 239.41

What happened

JBHT traded 231.00–235.97 and closed 235.31. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.36%.

Result -1.36% @ 235.31

We said

Short AA at 40.08, take profit 38.04, cut it at 41.65

What happened

AA traded 38.88–40.68 and closed 40.42. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.85%.

Result -0.85% @ 40.42

We said

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) stock will trade lower after its close earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

U.S. Bancorp (USB) will report higher-than-expected revenue.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 (SPX) will close above its 50-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) will see Technology (XLK) stocks outperform.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) will trade up more than 2% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Charles Schwab (SCHW) will rise by at least 1.5% following its pre-market earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Marsh McLennan (MRSH) will beat EPS expectations.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Aluminum Corporation of America (AA) will see its stock price fall by more than 1% after its report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) will report an EPS beat.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ManpowerGroup (MAN) will post stronger than expected earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Prologis (PLD) will report a slight increase in Funds From Operations (FFO).

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will announce a new significant cloud services contract.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Financials (XLF) sector will be the top-performing sector today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US10Y Treasury yield will finish the day higher.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude Oil (CL) prices will experience an intraday high of more than 1% above its open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) will be a top performer among banks.

What happened

We said PNC would be a winner. It closed -0.40% while the S&P 500 did +0.33%.

Result -0.40% @ 214.94

We said

Charles Schwab (SCHW) shares will rally on strong client metrics.

What happened

We said SCHW would be a winner. It closed -2.73% while the S&P 500 did +0.33%.

Result -2.73% @ 94.16

We said

Marsh McLennan (MRSH) will see its stock climb following earnings.

What happened

We said MRSH would be a winner. It closed +4.56% while the S&P 500 did +0.33%.

Result +4.56% @ 186.54

We said

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) will trade down after its earnings.

What happened

We said J would be a loser. It closed -0.02% while the S&P 500 did +0.33%.

Result -0.02% @ 141.97

We said

Aluminum Corporation of America (AA) will decline on commodity price pressure.

What happened

We said AA would be a loser. It closed +0.85% while the S&P 500 did +0.33%.

Result +0.85% @ 40.42

We said

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) will experience a price swing greater than 4%.

What happened

We said J would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.02%.

Result -0.02% @ 141.97

We said

Aluminum Corporation of America (AA) will move by more than 3% in either direction.

What happened

We said AA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.85%.

Result +0.85% @ 40.42

We said

Whisper numbers for Charles Schwab (SCHW) EPS will be significantly higher than consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) earnings will have an unclear impact on consumer durables.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Financial Sector Performance pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Indicators pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Global Industrial Demand pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Real Estate Sector pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI Investment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

PNC: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

PNC came in above expectations (5.09 vs 4.9685 expected). We said beat.

We said

SCHW: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

SCHW came in in line with expectations (1.69 vs 1.6927 expected). We said beat.

We said

BNY: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

BNY came in above expectations (2.37 vs 2.2887 expected). We said beat.

We said

JBHT: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

JBHT came in below expectations (1.82 vs 1.9246 expected). We said beat.

We said

MRSH: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

MRSH came in in line with expectations (2.03 vs 2.0133 expected). We said beat.

We said

USB: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

USB came in in line with expectations (1.34 vs 1.3407 expected). We said beat.

We said

AA: we said beat (54% odds of a beat)

What happened

AA came in above expectations (1.82 vs 1.5163 expected). We said beat.

We said

CMC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

CMC came in above expectations (2.09 vs 1.9933 expected). We said beat.

We said

MAN: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

MAN came in below expectations (1.01 vs 1.0203 expected). We said beat.

We said

PLD: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

PLD came in above expectations (1.6 vs 0.8181 expected). We said beat.

We said

WHR: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

WHR came in below expectations (-0.21 vs -0.0551 expected). We said beat.

We said

IBKR: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

IBKR came in below expectations (0.67 vs 0.6899 expected). We said beat.

We said

CFG earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MTB earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TFC earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TRV earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.