The Report Card · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Financials Earnings Lift S&P 500 by 0.4%
Major banks like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will deliver solid Q3 results, boosting investor confidence in the broader market; we put the odds of a green S&P close at 63%.
Accuracy
26%
Correct
10/39
Brier score
0.293
lower is better
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
1/10
10% accuracy
2/6
33% accuracy
1/5
20% accuracy
2/5
40% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 1.11%, closing at 7718.94. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.11% @ 7718.94
We said
NDX up 0.35% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 2.02%, closing at 29950.82. We called the wrong direction.
Result -2.02% @ 29950.82
We said
DJI up 0.50% (59% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.09%, closing at 51621.48. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.09% @ 51621.48
We said
RUT up 0.25% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 1.93%, closing at 2729.53. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.93% @ 2729.53
We said
VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 10.48%, closing at 16.87. We called the wrong direction.
Result +10.48% @ 16.87
We said
DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.35%, closing at 102.54. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.
Result +0.35% @ 102.54
We said
US10Y up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y fell 0.52%, closing at 5.19. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.52% @ 5.19
We said
CL up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 1.02%, closing at 95.10. Right direction, off by 1.02 percentage points on size.
Result +1.02% @ 95.10
We said
GC down 0.20% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.32%, closing at 4122.00. Right direction, off by 1.12 percentage points on size.
Result -1.32% @ 4122.00
We said
SI down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 5.80%, closing at 55.73. Right direction, off by 5.30 percentage points on size.
Result -5.80% @ 55.73
We said
BTC up 0.40% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 1.53%, closing at 81823.03. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.53% @ 81823.03
We said
ETH up 0.60% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 2.86%, closing at 2425.21. We called the wrong direction.
Result -2.86% @ 2425.21
We said
NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 0.55%, closing at 3.27. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.55% @ 3.27
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy BAC at 53.96, take profit 55.51, cut it at 52.77
What happened
BAC traded 49.26–51.51 and closed 51.39. It hit our 52.77 exit first — the trade lost -2.21%.
Result -2.21% @ 51.39
We said
Buy MS at 186.64, take profit 193.23, cut it at 181.58
What happened
MS traded 176.43–183.85 and closed 181.51. It hit our 181.58 exit first — the trade lost -2.71%.
Result -2.71% @ 181.51
We said
Buy BLK at 1066.12, take profit 1100.56, cut it at 1039.6
What happened
BLK traded 1062.79–1106.00 and closed 1073.79. It hit our 1100.56 take-profit — the trade worked, +3.23%.
Result +3.23% @ 1073.79
We said
Buy XLF at 54.82, take profit 55.88, cut it at 54
What happened
XLF traded 54.01–54.52 and closed 54.52. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.55%.
Result -0.55% @ 54.52
We said
Buy FAST at 51.43, take profit 53.02, cut it at 50.21
What happened
FAST traded 47.30–52.42 and closed 52.00. It hit our 50.21 exit first — the trade lost -2.37%.
Result -2.37% @ 52.00
We said
Short SPXU at 32.91, take profit 31.65, cut it at 33.88
What happened
SPXU traded 33.15–34.35 and closed 33.98. It hit our 33.88 exit first — the trade lost -2.95%.
Result -2.95% @ 33.98
We said
Buy MSFT at 543.45, take profit 562.91, cut it at 528.51
What happened
MSFT traded 532.54–545.74 and closed 533.69. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.80%.
Result -1.80% @ 533.69
We said
Buy STT at 174.1, take profit 179.44, cut it at 169.99
What happened
STT traded 156.50–166.89 and closed 166.89. It hit our 169.99 exit first — the trade lost -2.36%.
Result -2.36% @ 166.89
We said
Buy GS at 891.91, take profit 924.11, cut it at 867.16
What happened
GS traded 866.00–898.43 and closed 878.72. It hit our 867.16 exit first — the trade lost -2.77%.
Result -2.77% @ 878.72
We said
Buy CRM at 238.01, take profit 250.93, cut it at 228.07
What happened
CRM traded 233.59–240.11 and closed 235.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.87%.
Result -0.87% @ 235.95
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Bank of America (BAC) shares will close up at least 1.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Morgan Stanley (MS) shares will close up at least 1.2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
BlackRock (BLK) will close up at least 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Fastenal (FAST) will close up at least 0.8%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
State Street (STT) shares will close up at least 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close green.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will close green.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close green.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Financials Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) will close up at least 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) will close green.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 will trade within its typical daily range of ±0.46%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will rise by more than 0.5 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) will outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will decline.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close green.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bank of America (BAC) will see its stock rise after reporting strong Q3 earnings.
What happened
We said BAC would be a winner. It closed -4.76% while the S&P 500 did -1.11%.
Result -4.76% @ 51.39
We said
Morgan Stanley (MS) shares will climb following positive Q3 earnings.
What happened
We said MS would be a winner. It closed -2.75% while the S&P 500 did -1.11%.
Result -2.75% @ 181.51
We said
BlackRock (BLK) will trade higher on strong Q3 asset inflows and earnings.
What happened
We said BLK would be a winner. It closed +0.72% while the S&P 500 did -1.11%.
Result +0.72% @ 1073.79
We said
No significant individual stock losers predicted based on known catalysts.
What happened
No ticker found in this call.
We said
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will decline as market uncertainty eases.
What happened
We said VIX would be a loser. It closed +10.48% while the S&P 500 did -1.11%.
Result +10.48% @ 16.87
We said
Bank of America (BAC) will experience above-average intraday price swings.
What happened
We said BAC would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.76%.
Result -4.76% @ 51.39
We said
Morgan Stanley (MS) shares will see increased trading volume and price fluctuations.
What happened
We said MS would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.75%.
Result -2.75% @ 181.51
We said
Bank of America (BAC) will beat EPS consensus by more than 10%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Fastenal (FAST) will raise its full-year revenue guidance significantly.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The market's reaction to Bank of America's (BAC) net interest margin commentary.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
How much of a boost the broader market gets from financial earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Financials Earnings pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. That went against the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. That matched the call.
We said
Inflation pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. That went against the call.
We said
Industrial Demand pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. That went against the call.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. That went against the call.
We said
Middle East pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -1.11%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
BAC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
BAC came in below expectations (1.08 vs 1.1619 expected). We said beat.
We said
MS: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
MS came in below expectations (3.03 vs 3.1669 expected). We said beat.
We said
BLK: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
BLK came in above expectations (15.93 vs 14.3954 expected). We said beat.
We said
STT: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
STT came in in line with expectations (3.69 vs 3.6838 expected). We said beat.
We said
FAST: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
FAST came in above expectations (0.35 vs 0.3443 expected). We said beat.
We said
PNC earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
USB earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AA earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
BNY earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
JBHT earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SCHW earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MAN earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MRSH earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
WHR earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
TFC earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
TRV earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.