S&P 500 Rises 0.5% as Banks Report Strong Q3 Earnings

We said

SPX up 0.50% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.02%, closing at 7805.45. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.02% @ 7805.45

We said

NDX up 0.40% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.31%, closing at 30569.48. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.31% @ 30569.48

We said

DJI up 0.60% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.35%, closing at 51670.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.35% @ 51670.10

We said

RUT up 0.50% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.40%, closing at 2783.37. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.40% @ 2783.37

We said

VIX down 2.50% (38% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 0.39%, closing at 15.27. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.39% @ 15.27

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.37%, closing at 102.20. Right direction, off by 0.27 percentage points on size.

Result -0.37% @ 102.20

We said

US10Y up 0.80% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 0.44%, closing at 5.22. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.44% @ 5.22

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.35%, closing at 95.01. Right direction, off by 0.55 percentage points on size.

Result +1.35% @ 95.01

We said

GC down 0.40% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.24%, closing at 4180.70. Right direction, off by 0.16 percentage points on size.

Result -0.24% @ 4180.70

We said

SI down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 1.30%, closing at 59.36. Right direction, off by 0.80 percentage points on size.

Result -1.30% @ 59.36

We said

BTC up 0.50% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 1.64%, closing at 83103.75. Right direction, off by 1.14 percentage points on size.

Result +1.64% @ 83103.75

We said

ETH up 0.60% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 2.42%, closing at 2503.57. Right direction, off by 1.82 percentage points on size.

Result +2.42% @ 2503.57

We said

NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 4.86%, closing at 3.32. Right direction, off by 4.86 percentage points on size.

Result +4.86% @ 3.32

We said

Buy JPM at 334.3, take profit 342.29, cut it at 328.16

What happened

JPM traded 331.17–344.36 and closed 331.43. It hit our 342.29 take-profit — the trade worked, +2.39%.

Result +2.39% @ 331.43

We said

Buy UNH at 378.52, take profit 392.98, cut it at 367.4

What happened

UNH traded 372.88–399.86 and closed 377.76. It hit our 392.98 take-profit — the trade worked, +3.82%.

Result +3.82% @ 377.76

We said

Buy XLF at 55.05, take profit 56.06, cut it at 54.27

What happened

XLF traded 54.64–55.65 and closed 54.82. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.42%.

Result -0.42% @ 54.82

We said

Buy C at 131.92, take profit 136.25, cut it at 128.59

What happened

C traded 124.44–133.50 and closed 124.53. It hit our 128.59 exit first — the trade lost -2.52%.

Result -2.52% @ 124.53

We said

Buy GS at 893.95, take profit 923.99, cut it at 870.82

What happened

GS traded 891.01–930.88 and closed 891.91. It hit our 923.99 take-profit — the trade worked, +3.36%.

Result +3.36% @ 891.91

We said

Buy WFC at 83.32, take profit 86.11, cut it at 81.17

What happened

WFC traded 80.31–83.41 and closed 80.74. It hit our 81.17 exit first — the trade lost -2.58%.

Result -2.58% @ 80.74

We said

Buy JNJ at 263.73, take profit 272.01, cut it at 257.37

What happened

JNJ traded 245.19–256.18 and closed 248.61. It hit our 257.37 exit first — the trade lost -2.41%.

Result -2.41% @ 248.61

We said

Short DPZ at 310.9, take profit 298.43, cut it at 320.5

What happened

DPZ traded 283.07–305.45 and closed 296.10. The price never reached our 310.9 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 296.10

We said

Buy XLK at 196.36, take profit 200.86, cut it at 192.9

What happened

XLK traded 193.92–196.33 and closed 196.28. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.04%.

Result -0.04% @ 196.28

We said

Citigroup Inc. (C) shares will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) shares will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) shares will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) shares will close up at least 0.8% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) shares will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) shares will close down at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) will close up at least 1.2% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 will trade above its 50-day moving average for the entire session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close below 14.5 today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury will rise by at least 3 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

US Dollar Index (DXY) will close down at least 0.1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

WTI Crude Oil (CL) will trade above $88 per barrel today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will close up at least 0.4% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) shares will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

We said JPM would be a winner. It closed -0.86% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -0.86% @ 331.43

We said

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) shares will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

We said UNH would be a winner. It closed -0.20% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -0.20% @ 377.76

We said

Citigroup Inc. (C) shares will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

We said C would be a winner. It closed -5.60% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -5.60% @ 124.53

We said

Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) shares will close down at least 1.5% today.

What happened

We said DPZ would be a loser. It closed -4.76% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -4.76% @ 296.10

We said

Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) shares will move by at least 2.5% in either direction today.

What happened

We said DPZ would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.76%.

Result -4.76% @ 296.10

We said

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will rise by more than 5 basis points today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close within 0.05% of its opening price today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Middle East pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

China pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

C: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

C came in above expectations (2.85 vs 2.7311 expected). We said beat.

We said

JPM: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

JPM came in below expectations (5.75 vs 5.9185 expected). We said beat.

We said

UNH: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

UNH came in above expectations (4.69 vs 4.1893 expected). We said beat.

We said

GS: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

GS came in above expectations (17.01 vs 15.0539 expected). We said beat.

We said

JNJ: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

JNJ came in in line with expectations (2.59 vs 2.5881 expected). We said beat.

We said

WFC: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

WFC came in in line with expectations (1.87 vs 1.8754 expected). We said beat.

We said

DPZ: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

DPZ came in above expectations (4.6 vs 4.4127 expected). We said beat.

We said

BAC earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BLK earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MS earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PNC earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BNY earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MRSH earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SCHW earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

USB earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TRV earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.