S&P 500 Rises 0.5% as Tech Sector Continues Leadership

We said

SPX up 0.50% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.06%, closing at 7807.24. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.06% @ 7807.24

We said

NDX up 0.80% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.71%, closing at 30664.70. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.71% @ 30664.70

We said

DJI up 0.40% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.38%, closing at 51850.55. Right direction, off by 0.02 percentage points on size.

Result +0.38% @ 51850.55

We said

RUT up 0.30% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.45%, closing at 2794.48. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.45% @ 2794.48

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 2.49%, closing at 15.21. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.49% @ 15.21

We said

DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.37%, closing at 102.59. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.38% @ 102.59

We said

US10Y up 0.60% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 0.08%, closing at 5.24. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.08% @ 5.24

We said

CL up 1.00% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.52%, closing at 93.25. Right direction, off by 0.52 percentage points on size.

Result +1.52% @ 93.25

We said

GC down 0.30% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.52%, closing at 4194.50. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.

Result -0.52% @ 4194.50

We said

SI down 0.50% (45% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 0.28%, closing at 60.50. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.

Result -0.28% @ 60.50

We said

BTC up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.84%, closing at 82973.71. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.84% @ 82973.71

We said

ETH up 0.90% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.56%, closing at 2520.40. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.56% @ 2520.40

We said

NG up 1.50% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.55%, closing at 3.17. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.55% @ 3.17

We said

Buy NVDA at 229.28, take profit 237.74, cut it at 222.77

What happened

NVDA traded 224.92–228.86 and closed 226.32. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.29%.

Result -1.29% @ 226.32

We said

Buy MSFT at 535.07, take profit 555.78, cut it at 519.15

What happened

MSFT traded 535.70–542.74 and closed 541.15. The price never reached our 535.07 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 541.15

We said

Buy AMZN at 262.43, take profit 271.59, cut it at 255.38

What happened

AMZN traded 259.27–263.70 and closed 259.53. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.11%.

Result -1.10% @ 259.53

We said

Buy AVGO at 361.54, take profit 378.28, cut it at 348.66

What happened

AVGO traded 354.22–360.69 and closed 354.73. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.88%.

Result -1.88% @ 354.73

We said

Buy GOOGL at 351.66, take profit 365.73, cut it at 340.85

What happened

GOOGL traded 350.50–356.50 and closed 352.72. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.30%.

Result +0.30% @ 352.72

We said

Buy NOW at 140.86, take profit 149.44, cut it at 134.26

What happened

NOW traded 139.76–148.14 and closed 140.32. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.38%.

Result -0.38% @ 140.32

We said

Buy LLY at 1179.27, take profit 1238.47, cut it at 1133.72

What happened

LLY traded 1172.81–1188.57 and closed 1182.62. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.28%.

Result +0.28% @ 1182.62

We said

Buy CRM at 229.13, take profit 241.8, cut it at 219.39

What happened

CRM traded 231.48–240.90 and closed 233.92. The price never reached our 229.13 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 233.92

We said

Buy IBM at 227.13, take profit 235.58, cut it at 220.09

What happened

IBM traded 224.77–229.29 and closed 227.02. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.05%.

Result -0.05% @ 227.02

We said

Buy CL at 88.27, take profit 95.11, cut it at 83.01

What happened

CL traded 89.61–94.36 and closed 93.25. The price never reached our 88.27 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 93.25

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) Class C shares will close up today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will outperform the S&P 500 today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will close up today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Tesla (TSLA) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will close flat or up today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Chevron (CVX) will close up today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will close green today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold (GC) will close down today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Natural Gas (NG) prices will increase by at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be among the top performers in the Nasdaq 100 today.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -1.29% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result -1.29% @ 226.32

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will see above-average gains today.

What happened

We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -0.38% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result -0.38% @ 140.32

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close up today.

What happened

We said AVGO would be a winner. It closed -1.88% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result -1.88% @ 354.73

We said

Gold (GC) will close down today.

What happened

We said GC would be a loser. It closed -0.52% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result -0.52% @ 4194.50

We said

Silver (SI) will close down today.

What happened

We said SI would be a loser. It closed -0.28% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result -0.28% @ 60.50

We said

A defensive sector ETF, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), will underperform the S&P 500 today.

What happened

We said A would be a loser. It closed +0.46% while the S&P 500 did -0.06%.

Result +0.46% @ 171.33

We said

MicroStrategy (MSTR) will move by more than 3% in either direction today.

What happened

We said MSTR would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.08%.

Result -1.08% @ 152.68

We said

C3.ai (AI) will experience a price swing exceeding 2.5% today.

What happened

We said AI would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.69%.

Result +0.69% @ 11.61

We said

GameStop (GME) will trade with a daily range greater than 4% today.

What happened

We said GME would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.52%.

Result +2.52% @ 27.23

We said

The S&P 500 will close up more than 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will fall below 4.20% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boeing (BA) will announce a major new aircraft order.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The exact impact of today's oil inventory data from the API on crude prices.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Whether the recent strength in small-cap stocks can be sustained throughout the day.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The short-term market reaction to any unscheduled Fed speaker comments.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Investment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Cloud Computing Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Corporate Earnings Expectations (Tech) pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Global Economic Growth Outlook pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

US Consumer Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Interest Rate Stability pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Crude Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Calm pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. That went against the call.

We said

Dollar Strength pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation Concerns pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.06%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

ACZT earnings on 2026-10-12: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ALDS earnings on 2026-10-12: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

BMRA: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

BMRA came in in line with expectations (-0.44 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

BZYR earnings on 2026-10-12: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

DYNT: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

DYNT came in above expectations (-0.17 vs -0.2652 expected). We said beat.

We said

C earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GS earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JPM earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

WFC earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JNJ earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

UNH earnings on 2026-10-13: we leaned beat (75% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BAC earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MS earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BLK earnings on 2026-10-14: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BNY earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MRSH earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PNC earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SCHW earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

USB earnings on 2026-10-15: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TRV earnings on 2026-10-16: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.