S&P 500 Climbs 0.4% as Chip Demand Boosts Tech

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.59%, closing at 7811.54. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.59% @ 7811.54

We said

NDX up 0.70% (60% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.51%, closing at 30883.15. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.51% @ 30883.15

We said

DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.83%, closing at 51654.95. Right direction, off by 0.53 percentage points on size.

Result +0.83% @ 51654.95

We said

RUT up 0.20% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.46%, closing at 2806.98. Right direction, off by 0.26 percentage points on size.

Result +0.46% @ 2806.98

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 3.70%, closing at 14.84. Right direction, off by 1.70 percentage points on size.

Result -3.70% @ 14.84

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.07%, closing at 102.21. Right direction, off by 0.02 percentage points on size.

Result +0.07% @ 102.21

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.25%, closing at 5.24. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.25% @ 5.24

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 0.02%, closing at 91.51. Right direction, off by 0.78 percentage points on size.

Result +0.02% @ 91.51

We said

GC down 0.30% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 1.54%, closing at 4221.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.54% @ 4221.20

We said

SI down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 3.46%, closing at 61.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.46% @ 61.11

We said

BTC up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.78%, closing at 82315.81. Right direction, off by 0.68 percentage points on size.

Result +0.78% @ 82315.81

We said

ETH up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.19%, closing at 2476.60. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.19% @ 2476.60

We said

NG up 1.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 0.95%, closing at 3.20. Right direction, off by 0.55 percentage points on size.

Result +0.95% @ 3.20

We said

Buy DAL at 82.14, take profit 86.15, cut it at 79.06

What happened

DAL traded 79.16–82.37 and closed 82.17. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.04%.

Result +0.04% @ 82.17

We said

Buy TSM at 457.99, take profit 475.76, cut it at 444.31

What happened

TSM traded 449.75–464.83 and closed 453.31. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.02%.

Result -1.02% @ 453.31

We said

Buy MSFT at 522.61, take profit 542.84, cut it at 507.06

What happened

MSFT traded 526.24–537.20 and closed 535.07. The price never reached our 522.61 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 535.07

We said

Buy LLY at 1169.6, take profit 1229.83, cut it at 1123.25

What happened

LLY traded 1152.00–1179.82 and closed 1179.27. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.83%.

Result +0.83% @ 1179.27

We said

Buy AVGO at 360.14, take profit 377.35, cut it at 346.9

What happened

AVGO traded 361.10–366.63 and closed 361.54. The price never reached our 360.14 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 361.54

We said

Buy CRM at 227.8, take profit 240.58, cut it at 217.98

What happened

CRM traded 226.66–230.71 and closed 229.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.58%.

Result +0.58% @ 229.13

We said

Short XLU at 41.07, take profit 40.06, cut it at 41.85

What happened

XLU traded 40.97–41.46 and closed 41.41. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.83%.

Result -0.83% @ 41.41

We said

Buy AMZN at 254.06, take profit 262.9, cut it at 247.26

What happened

AMZN traded 256.00–262.80 and closed 262.43. The price never reached our 254.06 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 262.43

We said

Buy CRWD at 263.01, take profit 280.45, cut it at 249.6

What happened

CRWD traded 262.44–275.12 and closed 275.04. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +4.57%.

Result +4.57% @ 275.04

We said

Buy NVDA at 230.48, take profit 239.17, cut it at 223.8

What happened

NVDA traded 229.11–233.89 and closed 229.28. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.52%.

Result -0.52% @ 229.28

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Delta Air Lines (DAL) will report adjusted Q3 EPS above consensus estimates by at least 5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) will see at least a 0.8% gain.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will finish the session higher by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will trade up by more than 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.6%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will trade higher by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will see a gain of at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close up by at least 0.8%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) will close up at least 1.1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 Technology Sector (XLK) will gain at least 0.9%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cloudflare (NET) will trade up by at least 1.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Costco Wholesale (COST) will close flat to slightly higher, gaining less than 0.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CrowdStrike (CRWD) will gain at least 1.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Natural Gas (NG) futures will increase by more than 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -0.52% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result -0.52% @ 229.28

We said

Delta Air Lines (DAL) will gain more than 3% post-earnings.

What happened

We said DAL would be a winner. It closed +0.04% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result +0.04% @ 82.17

We said

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) will close up at least 1.2%.

What happened

We said TSM would be a winner. It closed -1.02% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result -1.02% @ 453.31

We said

VIX will close down at least 2.5%.

What happened

We said VIX would be a loser. It closed -3.70% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result -3.70% @ 14.84

We said

Silver (SI) will close down at least 0.7%.

What happened

We said SI would be a loser. It closed +3.46% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result +3.46% @ 61.11

We said

S&P 500 Utilities Sector (XLU) will decline by at least 0.5%.

What happened

We said S would be a loser. It closed +3.43% while the S&P 500 did +0.59%.

Result +3.42% @ 26.27

We said

Delta Air Lines (DAL) will move by more than 5% in either direction following its earnings release.

What happened

We said DAL would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.04%.

Result +0.04% @ 82.17

We said

Cloudflare (NET) will experience intraday swings exceeding 2%.

What happened

We said NET would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.57%.

Result +5.57% @ 360.93

We said

Natural Gas (NG) futures will see price fluctuations of over 2% today.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.95%.

Result +0.95% @ 3.20

We said

Small-cap growth stocks (IWO) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPX) by more than 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will unexpectedly fall by more than 5 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

An unexpected M&A announcement involving a major semiconductor firm will occur after the market close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market reaction to comments from Federal Reserve officials later in the day will be mixed.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) will trade mostly flat despite strong tech performance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will show divergent price movements for the session.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Earnings Season Start pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Federal Reserve Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Semiconductor Capex pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Cloud Computing Growth pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Enterprise Software pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.59%. That matched the call.

We said

DAL: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

DAL came in below expectations (1.72 vs 1.9868 expected). We said beat.

We said

HOVR: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

HOVR came in above expectations (-0.07119 vs -0.134 expected). We said beat.

We said

CCEL: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

CCEL came in above expectations (0.07 vs 0 expected). We said beat.

We said

HIFS: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

HIFS came in in line with expectations (3.86 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

MLGF: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

MLGF came in in line with expectations (0.58 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

PBNC earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

CLSD: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

CLSD came in below expectations (-1.14 vs -0.5355 expected). We said beat.