The Report Card · Wednesday, October 7, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as Tech Sector Continues its Advance
Robust semiconductor demand and steady enterprise spending drive technology stocks higher. We put the odds of a green S&P close at 63%.
Accuracy
26%
Correct
9/35
Brier score
0.277
lower is better
By Category
0/13
0% accuracy
3/7
43% accuracy
3/5
60% accuracy
0/4
0% accuracy
3/6
50% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.22%, closing at 7801.77. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.22% @ 7801.77
We said
NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 0.21%, closing at 31160.08. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.21% @ 31160.08
We said
DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.66%, closing at 51179.87. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.66% @ 51179.87
We said
RUT up 0.30% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 1.31%, closing at 2793.20. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.31% @ 2793.20
We said
VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 0.47%, closing at 15.08. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.47% @ 15.08
We said
DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.44%, closing at 102.28. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.44% @ 102.28
We said
US10Y down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.15%, closing at 5.28. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.15% @ 5.28
We said
CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 0.27%, closing at 89.20. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.27% @ 89.20
We said
GC up 0.40% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.22%, closing at 4136.10. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.22% @ 4136.10
We said
SI up 0.70% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 1.82%, closing at 60.06. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.82% @ 60.05
We said
BTC up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 2.57%, closing at 83360.99. We called the wrong direction.
Result -2.57% @ 83360.99
We said
ETH up 0.60% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 4.65%, closing at 2572.16. We called the wrong direction.
Result -4.65% @ 2572.16
We said
NG down 1.00% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 3.02%, closing at 3.21. We called the wrong direction.
Result +3.02% @ 3.21
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NVDA at 239.24, take profit 247.95, cut it at 232.54
What happened
NVDA traded 236.38–239.08 and closed 237.47. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.74%.
Result -0.74% @ 237.47
We said
Buy MSFT at 529.3, take profit 549.15, cut it at 514.02
What happened
MSFT traded 524.69–531.73 and closed 529.76. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.09%.
Result +0.09% @ 529.76
We said
Buy AVGO at 375.81, take profit 393.1, cut it at 362.52
What happened
AVGO traded 369.12–376.97 and closed 376.51. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.19%.
Result +0.19% @ 376.51
We said
Buy AMD at 649.42, take profit 690.59, cut it at 617.76
What happened
AMD traded 633.16–648.48 and closed 645.86. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.55%.
Result -0.55% @ 645.86
We said
Buy SMCI at 43.46, take profit 47.01, cut it at 40.73
What happened
SMCI traded 42.46–45.76 and closed 44.94. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.41%.
Result +3.40% @ 44.94
We said
Buy CRM at 224.99, take profit 238.22, cut it at 214.81
What happened
CRM traded 221.54–226.50 and closed 224.56. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.19%.
Result -0.19% @ 224.56
We said
Buy LLY at 1157.49, take profit 1209.92, cut it at 1117.12
What happened
LLY traded 1166.00–1206.63 and closed 1188.72. The price never reached our 1157.49 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 1188.72
We said
Buy PEP at 125.71, take profit 129.47, cut it at 122.82
What happened
PEP traded 123.47–126.43 and closed 123.73. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.58%.
Result -1.57% @ 123.73
We said
Short APLD at 25.34, take profit 22.74, cut it at 27.34
What happened
APLD traded 23.68–24.90 and closed 23.81. The price never reached our 25.34 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 23.81
We said
Short NG at 6.62, take profit 6.13, cut it at 7
What happened
NG traded 3.11–3.25 and closed 3.21. The price never reached our 6.62 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 3.21
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.5% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.7% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will close up at least 0.4% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 0.9% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Salesforce (CRM) will close up at least 0.7% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Meta Platforms (META) will close up at least 0.5% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will close up at least 0.3% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Delta Air Lines (DAL) will announce Q3 EPS above consensus tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 will trade above its 50-day moving average for the entire session.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will be among the top performers in the S&P 500.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -0.74% while the S&P 500 did -0.22%.
Result -0.74% @ 237.47
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will see significant gains tomorrow.
What happened
We said AVGO would be a winner. It closed +0.19% while the S&P 500 did -0.22%.
Result +0.19% @ 376.51
We said
Natural Gas (NG) futures will decline by at least 1.0%.
What happened
We said NG would be a loser. It closed +3.02% while the S&P 500 did -0.22%.
Result +3.02% @ 3.21
We said
Companies with high debt levels will underperform the broader market.
What happened
No ticker found in this call.
We said
Applied Digital (APLD) will see price swings exceeding 10% after its earnings report.
What happened
We said APLD would swing hard (3%+). It moved -6.04%.
Result -6.04% @ 23.81
We said
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) will experience high trading volume and price fluctuations following its Q3 earnings.
What happened
We said LEVI would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.97%.
Result -4.97% @ 19.51
We said
Applied Digital (APLD) will report a significant earnings beat and raise guidance.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The impact of any Federal Reserve speaker comments on market direction will be ambiguous.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Treasury Yields pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
AI Spending Cycle pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. That went against the call.
We said
Enterprise Cloud Adoption pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. That went against the call.
We said
Technology Sector Earnings Outlook pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. That went against the call.
We said
U.S. Consumer Spending pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil Prices pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. That went against the call.
We said
Global Economic Growth pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Dollar Strength pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.22%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
APLD: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
APLD came in below expectations (-0.39 vs -0.22 expected). We said beat.
We said
LEVI: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
LEVI came in above expectations (0.48 vs 0.3649 expected). We said beat.
We said
RELL: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
RELL came in above expectations (0.27 vs 0.0918 expected). We said beat.
We said
NRIX: we said beat (54% odds of a beat)
What happened
NRIX came in below expectations (-0.81 vs -0.7312 expected). We said beat.
We said
RGP: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
RGP came in above expectations (-0.16 vs -0.1692 expected). We said beat.
We said
BKSC: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
BKSC came in in line with expectations (0.36 vs — expected). We said beat.
We said
GLEI earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
PEP earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
TLRY earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ANGO earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HELE earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
BYRN earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
DAL earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CLSD earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (51% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HOVR earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CCEL earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HIFS earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.