S&P 500 Gains 0.4% as Chip Demand Bolsters Tech

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.58%, closing at 7818.93. Right direction, off by 0.18 percentage points on size.

Result +0.58% @ 7818.93

We said

NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.48%, closing at 31224.47. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.

Result +0.48% @ 31224.47

We said

DJI up 0.20% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.49%, closing at 51521.28. Right direction, off by 0.29 percentage points on size.

Result +0.49% @ 51521.28

We said

RUT up 0.25% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.59%, closing at 2830.30. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.59% @ 2830.30

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 3.29%, closing at 15.01. Right direction, off by 1.29 percentage points on size.

Result -3.29% @ 15.01

We said

DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.32%, closing at 101.85. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.

Result -0.32% @ 101.85

We said

US10Y down 0.70% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y fell 0.79%, closing at 5.27. Right direction, off by 0.09 percentage points on size.

Result -0.79% @ 5.27

We said

CL up 1.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 0.37%, closing at 89.76. Right direction, off by 1.13 percentage points on size.

Result +0.37% @ 89.76

We said

GC up 0.30% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.85%, closing at 4192.10. Right direction, off by 0.55 percentage points on size.

Result +0.85% @ 4192.10

We said

SI up 0.50% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 1.37%, closing at 61.70. Right direction, off by 0.87 percentage points on size.

Result +1.36% @ 61.70

We said

BTC up 0.80% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.20%, closing at 85619.04. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.20% @ 85619.04

We said

ETH up 0.90% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.58%, closing at 2695.41. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.58% @ 2695.41

We said

NG up 0.70% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.73%, closing at 3.12. Right direction, off by 1.03 percentage points on size.

Result +1.73% @ 3.12

We said

Buy NVDA at 238.9, take profit 247.64, cut it at 232.18

What happened

NVDA traded 238.93–243.37 and closed 239.24. The price never reached our 238.9 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 239.24

We said

Buy LRCX at 345.8, take profit 366.41, cut it at 329.94

What happened

LRCX traded 330.85–346.90 and closed 333.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.44%.

Result -3.44% @ 333.89

We said

Buy APOG at 35.66, take profit 37.28, cut it at 34.41

What happened

APOG traded 37.85–42.89 and closed 40.00. The price never reached our 35.66 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 40.00

We said

Buy MSFT at 525.18, take profit 544.98, cut it at 509.95

What happened

MSFT traded 528.82–535.69 and closed 529.30. The price never reached our 525.18 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 529.30

We said

Buy RPM at 95.3, take profit 99.44, cut it at 92.12

What happened

RPM traded 95.25–99.18 and closed 98.31. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.16%.

Result +3.16% @ 98.31

We said

Short STZ at 113.31, take profit 109.37, cut it at 116.34

What happened

STZ traded 112.99–116.77 and closed 115.67. It hit our 116.34 exit first — the trade lost -2.67%.

Result -2.67% @ 115.67

We said

Buy AVGO at 362.51, take profit 378.61, cut it at 350.14

What happened

AVGO traded 364.01–380.84 and closed 375.81. The price never reached our 362.51 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 375.81

We said

Buy AAPL at 332.89, take profit 343.44, cut it at 324.78

What happened

AAPL traded 330.62–334.38 and closed 333.63. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.22%.

Result +0.22% @ 333.63

We said

Buy CL at 86.19, take profit 93.72, cut it at 80.39

What happened

CL traded 86.86–90.05 and closed 89.76. The price never reached our 86.19 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 89.76

We said

Buy CRM at 229.79, take profit 242.64, cut it at 219.91

What happened

CRM traded 222.89–232.78 and closed 224.99. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.09%.

Result -2.09% @ 224.99

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will finish the day higher by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Constellation Brands (STZ) will trade down at least 1.0% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

RPM International (RPM) will close up at least 0.8% following its earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Lam Research (LRCX) will close up by at least 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will see its stock price rise by at least 0.6%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will trade higher by at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will gain at least 0.9%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will gain at least 0.8%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil futures (CL) will close up at least 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boeing (BA) will end the session higher by at least 0.4%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will close up at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will gain at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

APOG will trade higher by at least 3.0% after its pre-market earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will lead chip stocks higher, gaining at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +0.14% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.

Result +0.14% @ 239.24

We said

Lam Research (LRCX) will climb at least 1.0% as chip equipment spending forecasts improve.

What happened

We said LRCX would be a winner. It closed -3.44% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.

Result -3.44% @ 333.89

We said

Apogee Enterprises (APOG) will see its stock jump over 3.0% on strong earnings.

What happened

We said APOG would be a winner. It closed +12.17% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.

Result +12.17% @ 40.00

We said

Constellation Brands (STZ) will fall more than 1.0% following its earnings.

What happened

We said STZ would be a loser. It closed +2.08% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.

Result +2.08% @ 115.67

We said

Wendy's (WEN) will decline by at least 0.7% on concerns about consumer discretionary spending.

What happened

We said WEN would be a loser. It closed +0.98% while the S&P 500 did +0.58%.

Result +0.98% @ 6.16

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will move by more than 2.0% in either direction.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.73%.

Result +1.73% @ 3.12

We said

RPM International (RPM) stock will experience an intraday range of over 4.0% after earnings.

What happened

We said RPM would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.16%.

Result +3.16% @ 98.31

We said

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will unexpectedly decline by more than 5 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) will struggle to maintain any gains above 88.00 USD per barrel.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.

We said

Semiconductor Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.

We said

Earnings Reports pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitical Tensions pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Industrial Activity pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.

We said

Dollar Strength pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That went against the call.

We said

Crypto Adoption pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.58%. That matched the call.

We said

APOG: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

APOG came in above expectations (1.17 vs 0.6426 expected). We said beat.

We said

RPM: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

RPM came in in line with expectations (1.98 vs 1.966 expected). We said beat.

We said

STZ: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

STZ came in above expectations (3.74 vs 3.6021 expected). We said beat.

We said

LW: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

LW came in above expectations (0.75 vs 0.606 expected). We said beat.

We said

WS: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

WS came in below expectations (0.57 vs 0.7004 expected). We said beat.

We said

NEOG: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

NEOG came in above expectations (0.08 vs -0.0714 expected). We said beat.

We said

PENG: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

PENG came in above expectations (1 vs 0.7844 expected). We said beat.

We said

SAR: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

SAR came in below expectations (0.46 vs 0.4946 expected). We said beat.

We said

ADVB earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

AXIL: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

AXIL came in in line with expectations (0.05 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

LEVI earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

APLD earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

RGP earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BKSC earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PEP earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HELE earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

KARO earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TLRY earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

DAL earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.