S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as Chip Demand Drives Tech

We said

SPX up 0.40% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.66%, closing at 7773.95. Right direction, off by 0.26 percentage points on size.

Result +0.66% @ 7773.95

We said

NDX up 0.70% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.87%, closing at 31076.44. Right direction, off by 0.17 percentage points on size.

Result +0.87% @ 31076.44

We said

DJI up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.18%, closing at 51267.90. Right direction, off by 0.02 percentage points on size.

Result +0.18% @ 51267.90

We said

RUT up 0.05% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.50%, closing at 2847.14. Right direction, off by 0.45 percentage points on size.

Result +0.50% @ 2847.14

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 1.37%, closing at 15.52. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.37% @ 15.52

We said

DXY down 0.15% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.22%, closing at 102.15. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.22% @ 102.15

We said

US10Y down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.64%, closing at 5.31. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.64% @ 5.31

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 2.14%, closing at 89.16. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.14% @ 89.16

We said

GC up 0.10% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.15%, closing at 4168.50. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.

Result +0.15% @ 4168.50

We said

SI up 0.05% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 2.41%, closing at 61.42. Right direction, off by 2.36 percentage points on size.

Result +2.41% @ 61.42

We said

BTC up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.83%, closing at 85761.85. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.83% @ 85761.85

We said

ETH up 0.40% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.51%, closing at 2712.54. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.51% @ 2712.54

We said

NG up 1.50% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.29%, closing at 3.07. Right direction, off by 0.21 percentage points on size.

Result +1.28% @ 3.07

We said

Buy NVDA at 233.95, take profit 242.33, cut it at 227.52

What happened

NVDA traded 235.15–240.10 and closed 238.90. The price never reached our 233.95 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 238.90

We said

Buy MSFT at 517.53, take profit 536.78, cut it at 502.72

What happened

MSFT traded 521.53–532.35 and closed 525.18. The price never reached our 517.53 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 525.18

We said

Buy TSM at 472.78, take profit 488.85, cut it at 460.43

What happened

TSM traded 476.40–487.46 and closed 485.80. The price never reached our 472.78 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 485.80

We said

Buy AVGO at 355.14, take profit 371.3, cut it at 342.71

What happened

AVGO traded 356.14–363.86 and closed 362.51. The price never reached our 355.14 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 362.51

We said

Buy MKC at 44.67, take profit 46.87, cut it at 42.98

What happened

MKC traded 43.88–45.68 and closed 45.54. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.95%.

Result +1.95% @ 45.54

We said

Buy ASML at 1867.31, take profit 1942, cut it at 1809.89

What happened

ASML traded 1841.80–1869.67 and closed 1859.86. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.40%.

Result -0.40% @ 1859.86

We said

Buy LLY at 1142.85, take profit 1193.59, cut it at 1103.85

What happened

LLY traded 1139.49–1165.73 and closed 1143.12. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.02%.

Result +0.02% @ 1143.12

We said

Buy AAPL at 333.69, take profit 344.27, cut it at 325.56

What happened

AAPL traded 331.65–336.19 and closed 332.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.24%.

Result -0.24% @ 332.89

We said

Buy CL at 84.26, take profit 91.69, cut it at 78.54

What happened

CL traded 88.74–91.88 and closed 89.16. The price never reached our 84.26 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 89.16

We said

Short TLRY at 3.61, take profit 3.37, cut it at 3.79

What happened

TLRY traded 3.61–3.79 and closed 3.72. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.05%.

Result -3.05% @ 3.72

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will trade higher by at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close in positive territory.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) will rise by 1.2% or more.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ASML (ASML) will finish the day higher.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will see a gain of at least 0.8%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up by 0.5% or more.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Costco (COST) will close green.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Caterpillar (CAT) will rise today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will see a modest gain.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

MKC will beat its Q3 EPS consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPX).

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will close up by at least 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CL will trade up, breaking above its 5-day average price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close below Friday's level.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +2.12% while the S&P 500 did +0.66%.

Result +2.12% @ 238.90

We said

No major S&P 500 component will see a significant decline.

What happened

We said S would be a loser. It closed +1.48% while the S&P 500 did +0.66%.

Result +1.48% @ 25.43

We said

Moderna (MRNA) could see swings of +/- 3%.

What happened

We said MRNA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +6.95%.

Result +6.95% @ 203.21

We said

Amazon (AMZN) could unexpectedly announce a significant new cloud contract, causing its stock to rise by more than 2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The direction of the Russell 2000 (RUT) remains highly uncertain.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Sector Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Technology Hardware Spend pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Q4 Earnings Expectations pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Staples Strength pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Global Manufacturing PMIs pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Interest Rate Outlook pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That went against the call.

We said

Dollar Strength pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Cryptocurrency Sentiment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. That matched the call.

We said

Supply Chain Resilience pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.66%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

MKC: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

MKC came in above expectations (0.8 vs 0.6991 expected). We said beat.

We said

APOG earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LW earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

RPM earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

STZ earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NEOG earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

WS earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PENG earnings on 2026-10-06: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LEVI earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

APLD earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

RGP earnings on 2026-10-07: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PEP earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HELE earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

KARO earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TLRY earnings on 2026-10-08: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

DAL earnings on 2026-10-09: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.