Technology Stocks Lead Broad Market Higher After Earnings

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.73%, closing at 7722.72. Right direction, off by 0.33 percentage points on size.

Result +0.73% @ 7722.72

We said

NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 1.00%, closing at 30807.93. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.

Result +1.00% @ 30807.93

We said

DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.49%, closing at 51176.96. Right direction, off by 0.29 percentage points on size.

Result +0.49% @ 51176.96

We said

RUT up 0.30% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.94%, closing at 2832.90. Right direction, off by 0.64 percentage points on size.

Result +0.94% @ 2832.90

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 6.59%, closing at 15.31. Right direction, off by 4.09 percentage points on size.

Result -6.59% @ 15.31

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.19%, closing at 101.90. Right direction, off by 0.09 percentage points on size.

Result -0.19% @ 101.91

We said

US10Y down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.76%, closing at 5.28. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.76% @ 5.28

We said

CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 1.45%, closing at 91.52. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.45% @ 91.52

We said

GC up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.70%, closing at 4173.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.70% @ 4173.00

We said

SI up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.20%, closing at 60.85. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.

Result +0.20% @ 60.84

We said

BTC up 0.80% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.50%, closing at 84430.33. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.50% @ 84430.33

We said

ETH up 0.90% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 1.31%, closing at 2670.13. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.31% @ 2670.13

We said

NG down 1.00% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 2.49%, closing at 3.04. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.49% @ 3.04

We said

Buy GOOGL at 338.24, take profit 353.56, cut it at 326.44

What happened

GOOGL traded 341.16–345.77 and closed 343.50. The price never reached our 338.24 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 343.50

We said

Buy MSFT at 512.8, take profit 532.65, cut it at 497.54

What happened

MSFT traded 513.66–522.50 and closed 517.53. The price never reached our 512.8 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 517.53

We said

Buy NVDA at 230.86, take profit 239.49, cut it at 224.22

What happened

NVDA traded 233.60–237.87 and closed 233.95. The price never reached our 230.86 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 233.95

We said

Buy CRM at 236.69, take profit 250.35, cut it at 226.19

What happened

CRM traded 233.17–238.98 and closed 234.69. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.84%.

Result -0.84% @ 234.69

We said

Buy AMZN at 248.23, take profit 257.02, cut it at 241.47

What happened

AMZN traded 250.02–253.56 and closed 251.52. The price never reached our 248.23 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 251.52

We said

Buy LNAI at 1.38, take profit 1.55, cut it at 1.24

What happened

LNAI traded 1.24–1.46 and closed 1.30. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -5.80%.

Result -5.80% @ 1.30

We said

Buy LLY at 1149.85, take profit 1201.59, cut it at 1110.04

What happened

LLY traded 1136.66–1164.92 and closed 1142.85. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.61%.

Result -0.61% @ 1142.85

We said

Buy ASML at 1808.49, take profit 1889.87, cut it at 1745.87

What happened

ASML traded 1842.45–1873.50 and closed 1867.31. The price never reached our 1808.49 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 1867.31

We said

Short VFS at 3.06, take profit 2.87, cut it at 3.2

What happened

VFS traded 3.01–3.09 and closed 3.04. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.65%.

Result +0.65% @ 3.04

We said

Short NG at 6.42, take profit 5.93, cut it at 6.8

What happened

NG traded 2.91–3.05 and closed 3.04. The price never reached our 6.42 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 3.04

We said

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will close higher by at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will trade positive by 2.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will close higher by at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will gain at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade up by at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will close higher by at least 0.9% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close up by at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ASML Holding (ASML) will close higher by at least 1.2% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cisco Systems (CSCO) will close up by at least 0.4% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) will close up by at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) will close up by at least 0.4% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold will trade higher by at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will fall below 4.55% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will lead mega-cap tech higher.

What happened

We said GOOGL would be a winner. It closed +1.56% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%.

Result +1.55% @ 343.50

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will see renewed buying interest.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +1.34% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%.

Result +1.34% @ 233.95

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will outperform other sectors.

What happened

We said SPDR would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%.

Result 0.00%

We said

Natural Gas (NG) prices will fall again.

What happened

We said NG would be a loser. It closed +2.49% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%.

Result +2.49% @ 3.04

We said

VFS will close down by more than 5%.

What happened

We said VFS would be a loser. It closed -0.65% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%.

Result -0.65% @ 3.04

We said

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) will underperform.

What happened

We said SPDR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.73%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result 0.00%

We said

VFS will move by more than 8% in either direction.

What happened

We said VFS would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.65%.

Result -0.65% @ 3.04

We said

CBIH will experience significant intraday swings.

What happened

We said CBIH would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.

Result 0.00% @ 0.00

We said

Natural Gas (NG) will see daily price swings exceeding 2.5%.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.49%.

Result +2.49% @ 3.04

We said

MDRX will surprise with a 2% positive move.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

QH will announce better than expected forward guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will announce higher-than-expected services growth.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market reaction to any further US10Y yield moves.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The extent of consumer spending impact on discretionary names.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The stickiness of the recent commodity price declines.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That matched the call.

We said

Earnings Season pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That matched the call.

We said

Technology Sector pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That matched the call.

We said

Oil pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Inflation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Employment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. That matched the call.

We said

China pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.73%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

LNAI: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

LNAI came in in line with expectations (-0.08 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

VFS: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

VFS came in below expectations (-0.48 vs -0.3131 expected). We said beat.

We said

AGSS earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ALP: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

ALP came in in line with expectations (-1.26 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

CYCA earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

MDRX: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

MDRX came in below expectations (0.22 vs 0.2856 expected). We said beat.

We said

QH: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

QH came in below expectations (-59464.28571 vs 993.2143 expected). We said beat.

We said

BABB: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

BABB came in in line with expectations (0.02 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

CBIH earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

COOT earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

VIVC earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ZEOX earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ZVSA: we said beat (54% odds of a beat)

What happened

ZVSA came in in line with expectations (-0.22 vs — expected). We said beat.