Semiconductor Demand Lifts Nasdaq 100 0.8% Higher Tomorrow

We said

SPX up 0.45% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.25%, closing at 7651.54. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.25% @ 7651.54

We said

NDX up 0.82% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.23%, closing at 30408.50. Right direction, off by 0.59 percentage points on size.

Result +0.23% @ 30408.50

We said

DJI up 0.35% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.86%, closing at 50906.05. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.86% @ 50906.05

We said

RUT up 0.25% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.39%, closing at 2796.86. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.39% @ 2796.86

We said

VIX down 2.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 1.87%, closing at 16.34. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.87% @ 16.34

We said

DXY down 0.05% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.11%, closing at 101.49. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.11% @ 101.48

We said

US10Y up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.72%, closing at 5.29. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.

Result +0.72% @ 5.29

We said

CL up 0.75% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 1.31%, closing at 90.55. Right direction, off by 0.56 percentage points on size.

Result +1.31% @ 90.55

We said

GC down 0.60% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.22%, closing at 4188.70. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.21% @ 4188.70

We said

SI down 0.90% (46% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.09%, closing at 60.72. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.09% @ 60.73

We said

BTC up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.06%, closing at 83574.57. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.06% @ 83574.57

We said

ETH up 0.90% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.03%, closing at 2677.61. Right direction, off by 0.87 percentage points on size.

Result +0.03% @ 2677.61

We said

NG up 1.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 0.20%, closing at 3.02. Right direction, off by 1.30 percentage points on size.

Result +0.20% @ 3.02

We said

Buy MU at 1065.08, take profit 1139.64, cut it at 1010.49

What happened

MU traded 1062.36–1083.50 and closed 1065.11. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.00%.

Result +0.00% @ 1065.11

We said

Buy JBL at 318.84, take profit 338.9, cut it at 303.42

What happened

JBL traded 284.39–328.00 and closed 286.86. It hit our 303.42 exit first — the trade lost -4.84%.

Result -4.84% @ 286.86

We said

Buy NVDA at 227.21, take profit 235.96, cut it at 220.48

What happened

NVDA traded 228.17–232.37 and closed 228.38. The price never reached our 227.21 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 228.38

We said

Buy ACN at 177.12, take profit 188.46, cut it at 168.4

What happened

ACN traded 177.74–184.28 and closed 183.37. The price never reached our 177.12 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 183.37

We said

Buy AMZN at 246.67, take profit 255.18, cut it at 240.13

What happened

AMZN traded 246.09–252.44 and closed 249.15. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.01%.

Result +1.00% @ 249.15

We said

Buy LLY at 1184.63, take profit 1231.07, cut it at 1148.94

What happened

LLY traded 1155.27–1214.99 and closed 1157.08. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.33%.

Result -2.33% @ 1157.08

We said

Buy GOOGL at 340.92, take profit 354.73, cut it at 330.31

What happened

GOOGL traded 341.00–352.60 and closed 344.08. The price never reached our 340.92 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 344.08

We said

Buy CRM at 225.31, take profit 238.49, cut it at 215.17

What happened

CRM traded 224.43–233.73 and closed 229.57. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.89%.

Result +1.89% @ 229.57

We said

Buy XOM at 161.35, take profit 167.56, cut it at 156.57

What happened

XOM traded 161.93–164.37 and closed 162.75. The price never reached our 161.35 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 162.75

We said

Buy NG at 6.57, take profit 7.06, cut it at 6.19

What happened

NG traded 2.97–3.06 and closed 3.02. It hit our 6.19 exit first — the trade lost -5.78%.

Result -5.78% @ 3.02

We said

Gold prices (GC) will decline by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 Technology sector will be the strongest performing sector tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Retail sales data, if released, will show a modest increase month-over-month.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Micron Technology (MU) will report Q4 EPS above consensus estimates.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Jabil (JBL) will report Q4 revenue above analyst expectations.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Accenture (ACN) will see increased analyst price targets following its Q4 earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will gain at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade higher by at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close in positive territory.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will see its shares rise by at least 0.4%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The SOX semiconductor index will outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will increase by at least 3 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will finish the day flat to slightly positive.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Weyerhaeuser (WY) will close lower than its opening price.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Micron Technology (MU) will rally after its earnings beat.

What happened

We said MU would be a winner. It closed +0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +0.00% @ 1065.11

We said

Jabil (JBL) will trade higher on strong revenue figures.

What happened

We said JBL would be a winner. It closed -10.03% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result -10.03% @ 286.86

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will lead the Nasdaq higher.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +0.51% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +0.52% @ 228.38

We said

Silver (SI) will decline due to risk-on market sentiment.

What happened

We said SI would be a loser. It closed +0.09% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +0.09% @ 60.73

We said

Gold (GC) will fall as Treasury yields tick higher.

What happened

We said GC would be a loser. It closed +0.22% while the S&P 500 did -0.25%.

Result +0.21% @ 4188.70

We said

Utilities sector stocks will underperform the broader market.

What happened

No ticker found in this call.

We said

Micron Technology (MU) shares will see a swing of more than 5% post-earnings.

What happened

We said MU would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.00%.

Result +0.00% @ 1065.11

We said

Natural Gas (NG) prices will move more than 2% in either direction.

What happened

We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.20%.

Result +0.20% @ 3.02

We said

Jabil (JBL) stock will experience a price movement greater than its typical daily range.

What happened

We said JBL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -10.03%.

Result -10.03% @ 286.86

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close down more than 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) will unexpectedly drop below its 50-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Russell 2000 (RUT) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPX) by more than 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bio-Techne (BSET) will provide conservative guidance for the next quarter.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JEF) will report mixed results with revenue beating but EPS missing.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

HP Inc. (HPQ) will announce a major strategic acquisition.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Investment Cycle pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Earnings Season Start pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Technology Sector Performance pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Federal Reserve Stance pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

US Treasury Yields pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Data pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

US Dollar Strength pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitical Tensions pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Cryptocurrency Performance pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.25%. That went against the call.

We said

MU: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

MU came in above expectations (33.42 vs 32.5625 expected). We said beat.

We said

JBL: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

JBL came in above expectations (4.4 vs 4.109 expected). We said beat.

We said

BSET: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

BSET came in above expectations (0.24 vs 0.1326 expected). We said beat.

We said

FDS: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

FDS came in above expectations (4.52 vs 4.3779 expected). We said beat.

We said

JEF: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

JEF came in above expectations (1.08 vs 1.014 expected). We said beat.

We said

BTLN: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

BTLN came in below expectations (-0.53 vs 0 expected). We said beat.

We said

CALM: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

CALM came in below expectations (-1.26 vs -0.7879 expected). We said beat.

We said

PRGS: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

PRGS came in above expectations (1.62 vs 1.519 expected). We said beat.

We said

HPF earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ACN earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NKE earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AEHR earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AYI earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PKE earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BFK earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MDRX earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BABB earnings on 2026-10-02: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.