S&P 500 Rises 0.4% as AI Spend Drives Tech

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.17%, closing at 7670.84. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.17% @ 7670.84

We said

NDX up 0.60% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.21%, closing at 30339.33. Right direction, off by 0.39 percentage points on size.

Result +0.21% @ 30339.33

We said

DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.26%, closing at 51349.92. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.26% @ 51349.92

We said

RUT up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.35%, closing at 2807.92. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.35% @ 2807.92

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 0.19%, closing at 16.04. Right direction, off by 1.81 percentage points on size.

Result -0.19% @ 16.04

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.23%, closing at 101.44. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.23% @ 101.44

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.29%, closing at 5.26. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.29% @ 5.25

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 3.81%, closing at 89.07. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.81% @ 89.07

We said

GC up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 2.65%, closing at 4206.50. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.65% @ 4206.50

We said

SI up 0.70% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.83%, closing at 61.73. Right direction, off by 0.13 percentage points on size.

Result +0.83% @ 61.73

We said

BTC up 0.20% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.07%, closing at 83559.00. Right direction, off by 0.13 percentage points on size.

Result +0.07% @ 83559.00

We said

ETH up 0.30% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.04%, closing at 2689.84. Right direction, off by 0.26 percentage points on size.

Result +0.04% @ 2689.84

We said

NG down 1.00% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 0.57%, closing at 3.02. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.57% @ 3.02

We said

Buy NVDA at 228.86, take profit 237.26, cut it at 222.39

What happened

NVDA traded 227.02–232.82 and closed 227.21. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.72%.

Result -0.72% @ 227.21

We said

Buy IBM at 220.67, take profit 233.23, cut it at 211.02

What happened

IBM traded 219.91–223.12 and closed 219.99. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.31%.

Result -0.31% @ 219.99

We said

Short KMX at 56.55, take profit 52.91, cut it at 59.35

What happened

KMX traded 58.04–63.67 and closed 59.23. It hit our 59.35 exit first — the trade lost -4.95%.

Result -4.95% @ 59.23

We said

Buy PANW at 392.09, take profit 421.89, cut it at 369.15

What happened

PANW traded 377.96–391.75 and closed 388.41. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.94%.

Result -0.94% @ 388.41

We said

Buy MU at 1053.98, take profit 1127.44, cut it at 997.46

What happened

MU traded 1057.70–1082.66 and closed 1065.08. The price never reached our 1053.98 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 1065.08

We said

Buy ACN at 174.47, take profit 185.78, cut it at 165.77

What happened

ACN traded 172.13–177.77 and closed 177.12. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.52%.

Result +1.52% @ 177.12

We said

Buy AMD at 607.87, take profit 650.42, cut it at 575.12

What happened

AMD traded 605.25–624.13 and closed 607.57. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.05%.

Result -0.05% @ 607.57

We said

Short CAG at 14.16, take profit 13.51, cut it at 14.66

What happened

CAG traded 13.94–14.23 and closed 14.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.21%.

Result +0.21% @ 14.13

We said

Short CNXC at 25.45, take profit 22.4, cut it at 27.94

What happened

CNXC traded 23.93–26.01 and closed 24.88. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.24%.

Result +2.24% @ 24.88

We said

Buy LLY at 1184.78, take profit 1230.63, cut it at 1149.53

What happened

LLY traded 1168.47–1192.94 and closed 1184.63. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.01%.

Result -0.01% @ 1184.63

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CarMax (KMX) will close down at least 5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Micron Technology (MU) will see its stock trade up at least 0.5% in anticipation of Wednesday earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will close up at least 0.8% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 0.6% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Conagra Brands (CAG) will close down at least 2.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Consensus Cloud Solutions (CNXC) will close down at least 4% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oracle (ORCL) will close up at least 0.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.8% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Boeing (BA) will close up at least 0.6% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will see its stock trade up at least 0.6% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer, rising at least 1.0%.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -0.72% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result -0.72% @ 227.21

We said

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 1.0%.

What happened

We said PANW would be a winner. It closed -0.94% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result -0.94% @ 388.41

We said

IBM (IBM) will rise at least 0.7% on the day.

What happened

We said IBM would be a winner. It closed -0.31% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result -0.31% @ 219.99

We said

CarMax (KMX) will drop at least 5% following its earnings report.

What happened

We said KMX would be a loser. It closed +4.74% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result +4.74% @ 59.23

We said

Conagra Brands (CAG) will fall at least 2.5% after its Q1 results.

What happened

We said CAG would be a loser. It closed -0.21% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result -0.21% @ 14.13

We said

Consensus Cloud Solutions (CNXC) will decline by at least 4% after the close.

What happened

We said CNXC would be a loser. It closed -2.24% while the S&P 500 did -0.17%.

Result -2.24% @ 24.88

We said

CarMax (KMX) will see a price swing of over 8% following its pre-market earnings.

What happened

We said KMX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.74%.

Result +4.74% @ 59.23

We said

Consensus Cloud Solutions (CNXC) will move more than 7% after its after-hours earnings release.

What happened

We said CNXC would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.24%.

Result -2.24% @ 24.88

We said

Conagra Brands (CAG) will move more than 3% in either direction after its report.

What happened

We said CAG would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.21%.

Result -0.21% @ 14.13

We said

IBM (IBM) delivers stronger-than-expected revenue guidance for Q4, pushing its stock up by more than 2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) announces a new major AI infrastructure partnership, leading to a 3% pop.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) announces positive Phase 3 trial data for a new autoimmune drug, moving up 2.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market sentiment could be dampened by a stronger-than-expected US Dollar (DXY) rally.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Natural Gas (NG) prices could unexpectedly surge if early cold weather forecasts materialize.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) could reverse its expected decline if inflation expectations tick up.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI Investment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Corporate Earnings (KMX, CAG, CNXC) pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That matched the call.

We said

Micron (MU) Pre-Earnings Sentiment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Bond Market Stability pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

US Dollar Index (DXY) pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Crude Oil Prices (CL) pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Industrial Production pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Calm pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Natural Gas (NG) Supply pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.17%. That matched the call.

We said

CAG: we said beat (49% odds of a beat)

What happened

CAG came in above expectations (0.47 vs 0.4619 expected). We said beat.

We said

KMX: we said miss (46% odds of a beat)

What happened

KMX came in above expectations (1.16 vs 0.7199 expected). We said miss.

We said

CNXC: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

CNXC came in above expectations (2.92 vs 2.7591 expected). We said beat.

We said

BTM: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

BTM came in below expectations (-8.26 vs -0.4714 expected). We said beat.

We said

GFUZ earnings on 2026-09-29: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

UEC: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

UEC came in below expectations (-0.07 vs -0.0471 expected). We said beat.

We said

MU earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

FDS earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JBL earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BSET earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CALM earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JEF earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PRGS earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ACN earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AYI earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AEHR earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ANGO earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.