S&P 500 Adds 0.6% as Tech Megacaps Lead

We said

SPX up 0.60% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.77%, closing at 7683.69. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.77% @ 7683.69

We said

NDX up 0.90% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 1.08%, closing at 30276.81. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.08% @ 30276.81

We said

DJI up 0.30% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.67%, closing at 51481.51. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.67% @ 51481.51

We said

RUT up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.69%, closing at 2817.91. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.69% @ 2817.91

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 8.07%, closing at 16.07. We called the wrong direction.

Result +8.07% @ 16.07

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.22%, closing at 101.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.22% @ 101.20

We said

US10Y down 0.60% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 1.08%, closing at 5.24. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.08% @ 5.24

We said

CL up 1.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 0.75%, closing at 93.10. Right direction, off by 0.45 percentage points on size.

Result +0.75% @ 93.10

We said

GC up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 3.86%, closing at 4154.30. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.86% @ 4154.30

We said

SI up 0.90% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 4.85%, closing at 61.13. We called the wrong direction.

Result -4.85% @ 61.13

We said

BTC up 1.50% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 1.12%, closing at 83507.95. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.13% @ 83507.95

We said

ETH up 1.80% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 0.21%, closing at 2681.23. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.21% @ 2681.23

We said

NG down 1.00% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.53%, closing at 3.15. Right direction, off by 0.53 percentage points on size.

Result -1.53% @ 3.15

We said

Buy NVDA at 225.07, take profit 233.56, cut it at 218.54

What happened

NVDA traded 228.04–233.21 and closed 228.86. The price never reached our 225.07 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 228.86

We said

Buy MSFT at 516.17, take profit 533.98, cut it at 502.49

What happened

MSFT traded 502.22–513.33 and closed 509.22. It hit our 502.49 exit first — the trade lost -2.65%.

Result -2.65% @ 509.22

We said

Buy ASML at 1743.94, take profit 1829.04, cut it at 1678.54

What happened

ASML traded 1735.50–1784.56 and closed 1771.41. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.58%.

Result +1.57% @ 1771.41

We said

Short NKE at 35.75, take profit 34.27, cut it at 36.89

What happened

NKE traded 35.41–36.67 and closed 36.39. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.79%.

Result -1.79% @ 36.39

We said

Buy SMH at 606.56, take profit 631.91, cut it at 587.07

What happened

SMH traded 591.92–607.92 and closed 600.01. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.08%.

Result -1.08% @ 600.01

We said

Buy CCL at 22.25, take profit 23.41, cut it at 21.35

What happened

CCL traded 21.85–22.65 and closed 22.14. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.49%.

Result -0.49% @ 22.14

We said

Buy TSM at 450.61, take profit 467.15, cut it at 437.88

What happened

TSM traded 443.11–455.27 and closed 452.88. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.50%.

Result +0.50% @ 452.88

We said

Buy META at 751.66, take profit 799.77, cut it at 714.64

What happened

META traded 713.19–750.58 and closed 715.62. It hit our 714.64 exit first — the trade lost -4.93%.

Result -4.92% @ 715.62

We said

Buy LLY at 1183.46, take profit 1230.92, cut it at 1146.92

What happened

LLY traded 1172.56–1194.09 and closed 1184.78. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.11%.

Result +0.11% @ 1184.78

We said

Buy ARKG at 53.36, take profit 56.43, cut it at 51

What happened

ARKG traded 52.60–54.06 and closed 53.35. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.02%.

Result -0.02% @ 53.35

We said

Nike (NKE) will close down at least 1.5% after reporting earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Carnival (CCL) will close up at least 0.8% after its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will trade above its 50-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close in positive territory.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Meta Platforms (META) will close up at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade flat to up 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ASML Holding (ASML) will close up at least 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) will close up at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) will close up.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IDT (IDT) will report Q4 earnings after the close and exceed revenue consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Vail Resorts (MTN) will report Q4 earnings after the close and beat EPS consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade below its 20-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) futures will settle above $82 per barrel.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will consolidate gains and trade above $68,000.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer in the S&P 500.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +1.68% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result +1.68% @ 228.86

We said

ASML Holding (ASML) will close up at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said ASML would be a winner. It closed +1.58% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result +1.57% @ 1771.41

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.7%.

What happened

We said MSFT would be a winner. It closed -1.35% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result -1.35% @ 509.22

We said

Nike (NKE) will be a bottom performer in the Dow.

What happened

We said NKE would be a loser. It closed +1.79% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result +1.79% @ 36.39

We said

Natural Gas (NG) futures will decline by at least 1%.

What happened

We said NG would be a loser. It closed -1.53% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result -1.53% @ 3.15

We said

IDT (IDT) will experience selling pressure after its earnings call.

What happened

We said IDT would be a loser. It closed +3.11% while the S&P 500 did -0.77%.

Result +3.11% @ 69.56

We said

Nike (NKE) shares will move by more than ±3% on its earnings report.

What happened

We said NKE would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.79%.

Result +1.79% @ 36.39

We said

IDT (IDT) shares will move by more than ±5% after reporting earnings.

What happened

We said IDT would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.11%.

Result +3.11% @ 69.56

We said

Carnival (CCL) shares will move by more than ±2.5% after reporting earnings.

What happened

We said CCL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.49%.

Result -0.49% @ 22.14

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will close below 4.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Carnival (CCL) will announce a special dividend.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will announce a new AI product line optimized for edge computing.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The extent of inventory buildup for apparel brands due to Nike (NKE) report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The outlook for global advertising spend in Q4 after Meta Platforms (META) update.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The impact of rising labor costs on Vail Resorts (MTN) profitability.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Energy Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. That went against the call.

We said

AI Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. That went against the call.

We said

Corporate Earnings pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Semiconductor Capex pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitics pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. That matched the call.

We said

Inflation Expectations pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Central Bank Policy pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Cryptocurrency Sentiment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. That went against the call.

We said

Fixed Income pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.77%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AYI earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JEF earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PRGS earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ACN earnings on 2026-10-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NKE: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

NKE came in above expectations (0.2 vs 0.1332 expected). We said beat.

We said

CCL: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

CCL came in above expectations (0.41 vs 0.3496 expected). We said beat.

We said

IDT: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

IDT came in above expectations (0.94 vs 0.8989 expected). We said beat.

We said

MTN: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

MTN came in above expectations (-5.34 vs -5.311 expected). We said beat.

We said

MITQ: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

MITQ came in in line with expectations (-0.03 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

NTWK: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

NTWK came in in line with expectations (0.32 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

ASPU: we said beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

ASPU came in in line with expectations (0.01 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

ANEB: we said beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

ANEB came in above expectations (-0.05 vs -0.1326 expected). We said beat.

We said

CAG earnings on 2026-09-29: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

KMX earnings on 2026-09-29: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CNXC earnings on 2026-09-29: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MU earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

FDS earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JBL earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CALM earnings on 2026-09-30: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.