S&P 500 Trades Higher, Adds 0.4% Tomorrow

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.51%, closing at 7743.41. Right direction, off by 0.11 percentage points on size.

Result +0.51% @ 7743.41

We said

NDX up 0.70% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.42%, closing at 30608.13. Right direction, off by 0.28 percentage points on size.

Result +0.42% @ 30608.13

We said

DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.93%, closing at 51828.62. Right direction, off by 0.73 percentage points on size.

Result +0.93% @ 51828.62

We said

RUT up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.07%, closing at 2837.55. Right direction, off by 0.03 percentage points on size.

Result +0.07% @ 2837.55

We said

VIX down 2.50% (43% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 5.11%, closing at 14.87. Right direction, off by 2.61 percentage points on size.

Result -5.11% @ 14.87

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.28%, closing at 101.01. Right direction, off by 0.18 percentage points on size.

Result -0.28% @ 101.01

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.43%, closing at 5.18. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.43% @ 5.18

We said

CL up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 2.11%, closing at 92.61. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.11% @ 92.61

We said

GC down 0.20% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.61%, closing at 4324.40. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.61% @ 4324.40

We said

SI down 0.30% (48% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 2.01%, closing at 64.74. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.01% @ 64.73

We said

BTC up 0.80% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.36%, closing at 84071.34. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.36% @ 84071.34

We said

ETH up 0.70% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.25%, closing at 2693.93. Right direction, off by 0.45 percentage points on size.

Result +0.25% @ 2693.93

We said

NG down 1.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 1.70%, closing at 3.24. Right direction, off by 0.20 percentage points on size.

Result -1.70% @ 3.24

We said

Buy NVDA at 224.58, take profit 233.38, cut it at 217.81

What happened

NVDA traded 223.13–226.94 and closed 225.07. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.22%.

Result +0.22% @ 225.07

We said

Buy LLY at 1181.89, take profit 1227.63, cut it at 1146.73

What happened

LLY traded 1160.84–1190.00 and closed 1183.46. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.13%.

Result +0.13% @ 1183.46

We said

Buy MSFT at 497.93, take profit 514.51, cut it at 485.17

What happened

MSFT traded 497.30–519.40 and closed 516.17. It hit our 514.51 take-profit — the trade worked, +3.33%.

Result +3.33% @ 516.17

We said

Buy ASML at 1722.5, take profit 1812.59, cut it at 1653.17

What happened

ASML traded 1728.11–1759.25 and closed 1743.94. The price never reached our 1722.5 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 1743.94

We said

Buy GOOGL at 342.36, take profit 357.12, cut it at 331.02

What happened

GOOGL traded 341.11–347.03 and closed 343.92. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.46%.

Result +0.46% @ 343.92

We said

Buy AMZN at 249.38, take profit 258.31, cut it at 242.52

What happened

AMZN traded 247.18–250.88 and closed 249.67. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.12%.

Result +0.12% @ 249.67

We said

Buy CRM at 238.22, take profit 251.92, cut it at 227.68

What happened

CRM traded 233.38–239.37 and closed 234.02. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.76%.

Result -1.76% @ 234.02

We said

Short FDX at 279.54, take profit 267.72, cut it at 288.63

What happened

FDX traded 279.23–286.60 and closed 285.85. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.26%.

Result -2.26% @ 285.85

We said

Short TBN at 36.25, take profit 33.3, cut it at 38.52

What happened

TBN traded 34.87–36.73 and closed 35.11. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.14%.

Result +3.15% @ 35.11

We said

Buy IWM at 281.66, take profit 287.46, cut it at 277.19

What happened

IWM traded 280.45–283.52 and closed 281.97. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.11%.

Result +0.11% @ 281.97

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) (Class A) will close up at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close up at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ASML Holding (ASML) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oracle (ORCL) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) will close up at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) will close up at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer, closing up over 1.2%.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +0.22% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result +0.22% @ 225.07

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 1.0%.

What happened

We said LLY would be a winner. It closed +0.13% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result +0.13% @ 1183.46

We said

ASML Holding (ASML) will close up over 1.0%.

What happened

We said ASML would be a winner. It closed +1.24% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result +1.25% @ 1743.94

We said

FedEx (FDX) will close down at least 3.0% after its earnings report.

What happened

We said FDX would be a loser. It closed +2.26% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result +2.26% @ 285.85

We said

Natural Gas (NG) futures will close down at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said NG would be a loser. It closed -1.70% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result -1.70% @ 3.24

We said

TBN (TBN) will close down more than 5.0% after its pre-market earnings.

What happened

We said TBN would be a loser. It closed -3.14% while the S&P 500 did +0.51%.

Result -3.15% @ 35.11

We said

FedEx (FDX) will move by at least 4.0% in either direction after its earnings.

What happened

We said FDX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.26%.

Result +2.26% @ 285.85

We said

TBN (TBN) will see its stock price change by at least 7.0% tomorrow.

What happened

We said TBN would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.14%.

Result -3.15% @ 35.11

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will announce an accelerated drug approval, leading to an immediate 2.5% price increase.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market reaction to FedEx (FDX) earnings will be mixed, causing intraday chop in industrials.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Corporate Earnings (FedEx) pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Artificial Intelligence Capex pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Big Tech Operational Execution pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. That went against the call.

We said

Global Manufacturing Activity pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Biopharmaceutical Pipeline Progress pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. That matched the call.

We said

Commodity Prices (Oil/Gas) pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Small Cap Liquidity pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.51%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

TBN: we said inline (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

TBN came in below expectations (-0.42 vs -0.2434 expected). We said inline.

We said

FGPR: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

FGPR came in above expectations (0.64 vs 0.4794 expected). We said beat.