S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as Enterprise Software Drives Growth

We said

SPX up 0.40% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.02%, closing at 7704.13. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.03% @ 7704.13

We said

NDX up 0.60% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.03%, closing at 30478.86. Right direction, off by 0.57 percentage points on size.

Result +0.03% @ 30478.86

We said

DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.31%, closing at 51349.98. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.31% @ 51349.98

We said

RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.11%, closing at 2835.57. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.11% @ 2835.57

We said

VIX down 2.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 3.23%, closing at 15.67. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.23% @ 15.67

We said

DXY up 0.05% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.20%, closing at 101.31. Right direction, off by 0.15 percentage points on size.

Result +0.20% @ 101.31

We said

US10Y up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.94%, closing at 5.16. Right direction, off by 0.14 percentage points on size.

Result +0.94% @ 5.16

We said

CL up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 3.41%, closing at 95.30. Right direction, off by 3.41 percentage points on size.

Result +3.41% @ 95.30

We said

GC down 0.30% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.40%, closing at 4301.10. Right direction, off by 0.10 percentage points on size.

Result -0.40% @ 4301.10

We said

SI down 0.60% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 0.55%, closing at 64.03. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.

Result -0.55% @ 64.03

We said

BTC up 0.70% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 0.17%, closing at 84240.85. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.17% @ 84240.85

We said

ETH up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.07%, closing at 2686.44. Right direction, off by 0.73 percentage points on size.

Result +0.07% @ 2686.44

We said

NG up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 9.59%, closing at 3.31. Right direction, off by 9.09 percentage points on size.

Result +9.59% @ 3.31

We said

Buy NOW at 140.78, take profit 150.87, cut it at 133.02

What happened

NOW traded 137.53–141.04 and closed 137.78. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.13%.

Result -2.13% @ 137.78

We said

Buy CRWD at 262.49, take profit 283.83, cut it at 246.08

What happened

CRWD traded 258.53–263.86 and closed 259.67. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.07%.

Result -1.07% @ 259.67

We said

Buy AVGO at 354.99, take profit 373.63, cut it at 340.66

What happened

AVGO traded 346.89–351.43 and closed 350.36. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.30%.

Result -1.30% @ 350.36

We said

Buy PLTR at 191.79, take profit 202.86, cut it at 183.28

What happened

PLTR traded 188.24–194.68 and closed 192.59. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.42%.

Result +0.42% @ 192.59

We said

Buy SCHL at 35.36, take profit 37.57, cut it at 33.66

What happened

SCHL traded 34.80–35.44 and closed 34.83. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.50%.

Result -1.50% @ 34.83

We said

Buy MITQ at 0.6189, take profit 0.6932, cut it at 0.557

What happened

MITQ traded 0.62–0.65 and closed 0.65. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +4.54%.

Result +4.54% @ 0.65

We said

Buy SNX at 287.89, take profit 303.29, cut it at 276.05

What happened

SNX traded 243.03–266.42 and closed 259.47. It hit our 276.05 exit first — the trade lost -4.11%.

Result -4.11% @ 259.47

We said

Buy CRM at 237.58, take profit 251.98, cut it at 226.5

What happened

CRM traded 237.00–242.01 and closed 238.22. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.27%.

Result +0.27% @ 238.22

We said

Short BXMT at 12.57, take profit 12.01, cut it at 13

What happened

BXMT traded 12.31–12.65 and closed 12.39. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.43%.

Result +1.43% @ 12.39

We said

Buy JPM at 337.53, take profit 349.75, cut it at 328.12

What happened

JPM traded 335.28–339.37 and closed 338.56. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.31%.

Result +0.30% @ 338.56

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will be among the top performers in the S&P 500.

What happened

We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -2.13% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -2.13% @ 137.78

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will close up at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Costco Wholesale (COST) will report stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings after market close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CrowdStrike (CRWD) will trade higher by at least 1% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will close higher by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Darden Restaurants (DRI) will report in-line Q1 EPS and revenue before market open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SNX will beat Q3 EPS estimates before market open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

MITQ will report a Q3 revenue beat before market open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will gain at least 0.6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) will trade flat to slightly higher.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will trade higher by at least 1.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SCHL will report a Q4 EPS beat after market close.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will gain at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

BXMT will report a Q3 EPS miss before market open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will rise by 2-3 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CrowdStrike (CRWD) will see significant upside after its peer strength.

What happened

We said CRWD would be a winner. It closed -1.07% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -1.07% @ 259.67

We said

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will continue its recent upward trend.

What happened

We said PLTR would be a winner. It closed +0.42% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result +0.42% @ 192.59

We said

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) will trade lower after its Q3 earnings.

What happened

We said BXMT would be a loser. It closed -1.43% while the S&P 500 did -0.02%.

Result -1.43% @ 12.39

We said

Select regional banks may face headwinds from higher yields.

What happened

No ticker found in this call.

We said

Costco Wholesale (COST) shares will move by more than 3% after its earnings report.

What happened

We said COST would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.91%.

Result -0.91% @ 896.48

We said

Darden Restaurants (DRI) will experience a 2% swing after its Q1 report.

What happened

We said DRI would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.02%.

Result -3.02% @ 207.24

We said

Gold (GC) will unexpectedly rally by more than 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude Oil (CL) will close flat despite inventory data.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Enterprise Software Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

AI Adoption and Infrastructure pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Initial Jobless Claims pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Pressures pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Semiconductor Demand pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Retail Tech and Ed-Tech pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Macroeconomic Data (GDP) pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil Inventories pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished flat -0.02%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

COST: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

COST came in in line with expectations (6.6 vs 6.6561 expected). We said beat.

We said

BXMT: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

BXMT came in below expectations (0.31 vs 0.3596 expected). We said beat.

We said

DRI: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

DRI came in below expectations (2.05 vs 2.0756 expected). We said beat.

We said

MITQ: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

MITQ came in in line with expectations (-0.04 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

SNX: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

SNX came in above expectations (5.68 vs 4.7493 expected). We said beat.

We said

SCHL: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

SCHL came in below expectations (-3.63 vs -3.468 expected). We said beat.

We said

AFB: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

AFB came in in line with expectations (0.11 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

BTOC: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

BTOC came in in line with expectations (-0.13 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

JOCM earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

LVVV earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

POCI: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

POCI came in in line with expectations (-0.01 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

LGCY: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

LGCY came in below expectations (0.13 vs 0.1479 expected). We said beat.

We said

LITS: we said beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

LITS came in below expectations (-2.76 vs -1.4637 expected). We said beat.

We said

MTEK earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

PCLA earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

QH: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

QH came in below expectations (-59464.28571 vs 993.2143 expected). We said beat.

We said

SOS: we said beat (57% odds of a beat)

What happened

SOS came in below expectations (-1200 vs -374.9625 expected). We said beat.

We said

TBN earnings on 2026-09-25: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

FGPR earnings on 2026-09-25: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.