S&P 500 Rises 0.4% As Software Earnings Boost Confidence

We said

SPX up 0.40% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.76%, closing at 7706.03. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.76% @ 7706.03

We said

NDX up 0.70% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.04%, closing at 30470.29. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.04% @ 30470.29

We said

DJI up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 1.03%, closing at 51511.59. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.03% @ 51511.59

We said

RUT up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 1.28%, closing at 2838.66. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.28% @ 2838.66

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 2.08%, closing at 15.18. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.08% @ 15.18

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.68%, closing at 101.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.68% @ 101.11

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 3.04%, closing at 5.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.04% @ 5.11

We said

CL up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 1.84%, closing at 92.85. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.84% @ 92.85

We said

GC up 0.30% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 1.28%, closing at 4320.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.28% @ 4320.20

We said

SI up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 1.65%, closing at 64.85. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.65% @ 64.84

We said

BTC up 0.60% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 2.13%, closing at 84337.37. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.13% @ 84337.37

We said

ETH up 0.90% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 2.90%, closing at 2672.76. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.90% @ 2672.76

We said

NG down 1.20% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 6.81%, closing at 3.17. We called the wrong direction.

Result +6.81% @ 3.17

We said

Buy PAYX at 114.53, take profit 119.18, cut it at 110.95

What happened

PAYX traded 103.25–110.50 and closed 104.49. It hit our 110.95 exit first — the trade lost -3.13%.

Result -3.13% @ 104.49

We said

Buy CTAS at 198.8, take profit 206.87, cut it at 192.59

What happened

CTAS traded 191.29–198.75 and closed 191.97. It hit our 192.59 exit first — the trade lost -3.12%.

Result -3.12% @ 191.97

We said

Buy SPG at 205.95, take profit 214.31, cut it at 199.51

What happened

SPG traded 203.84–205.64 and closed 204.16. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.87%.

Result -0.87% @ 204.16

We said

Buy XOM at 158.71, take profit 165.15, cut it at 153.75

What happened

XOM traded 159.42–162.12 and closed 161.23. The price never reached our 158.71 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 161.23

We said

Buy MSFT at 498, take profit 518.22, cut it at 482.44

What happened

MSFT traded 495.90–509.44 and closed 500.59. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.52%.

Result +0.52% @ 500.59

We said

Short CBRL at 45.48, take profit 43.63, cut it at 46.9

What happened

CBRL traded 44.52–49.16 and closed 47.52. It hit our 46.9 exit first — the trade lost -3.12%.

Result -3.12% @ 47.52

We said

Short SFIX at 2.99, take profit 2.84, cut it at 3.08

What happened

SFIX traded 2.76–3.02 and closed 2.82. It hit our 2.84 take-profit — the trade worked, +5.02%.

Result +5.02% @ 2.82

We said

Short MANU at 20.51, take profit 19.68, cut it at 21.15

What happened

MANU traded 19.05–20.55 and closed 20.49. It hit our 19.68 take-profit — the trade worked, +4.05%.

Result +4.05% @ 20.49

We said

Buy FSLY at 26.08, take profit 27.14, cut it at 25.26

What happened

FSLY traded 24.04–31.33 and closed 29.65. It hit our 25.26 exit first — the trade lost -3.14%.

Result -3.14% @ 29.65

We said

Buy IBM at 231.38, take profit 240.77, cut it at 224.15

What happened

IBM traded 232.53–237.86 and closed 232.76. The price never reached our 231.38 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 232.76

We said

Manchester United (MANU) will report in-line earnings but miss revenue expectations due to weaker commercial performance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) will fall more than 4% after its earnings report.

What happened

We said CBRL would be a loser. It closed +5.91% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result +5.91% @ 47.52

We said

Stitch Fix (SFIX) shares will decline more than 5%.

What happened

We said SFIX would be a loser. It closed -5.69% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result -5.69% @ 2.82

We said

Manchester United (MANU) will trade down 2% after its earnings miss.

What happened

We said MANU would be a loser. It closed +0.39% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result +0.39% @ 20.49

We said

The Industrial sector will outperform the Technology sector by 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold prices (GC) will fall more than 1.0% on unexpected dollar strength.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will announce a new major government cloud contract, pushing shares up 2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Paychex (PAYX) will beat EPS estimates by at least $0.05 and guidance will be in line or better.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cintas (CTAS) will report stronger-than-expected revenue, driving its stock up more than 2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) will report a slight EPS miss and offer cautious forward guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fulgent Genetics (FUL) will surprise with stronger-than-expected revenue growth driven by non-COVID testing.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Stitch Fix (SFIX) will report a wider-than-expected net loss and struggle to stem customer churn.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 Information Technology sector will outperform the broader market by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) will close higher by at least 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) will decline by more than 3 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil prices (CL) will continue their upward trend, closing above its 5-day moving average.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Materials sector will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Qualcomm (QCOM) shares will show mild upward drift, adding 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) shares will trade flat to mildly positive, up 0.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index will close higher by 0.3%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close up 0.3% on continued iPhone upgrade cycle optimism.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The overall market reaction to any Fed speaker comments will be mixed and indecisive.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Bitcoin (BTC) will end the day flat, within +/- 0.5% of its open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Consumer Discretionary sector will trade with no clear direction, ending within +/- 0.1% of its open.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Fulgent Genetics (FUL) will move more than 7% in either direction following its earnings call.

What happened

We said FUL would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.17%.

Result +1.17% @ 50.21

We said

Oil prices (CL) will experience intraday swings of more than 1.5%.

What happened

We said CL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.84%.

Result -1.84% @ 92.85

We said

MicroStrategy (MSTR) will see price swings of over 5%.

What happened

We said MSTR would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.07%.

Result -3.07% @ 162.20

We said

Paychex (PAYX) will be a top performer in the S&P 500, rising over 3%.

What happened

We said PAYX would be a winner. It closed -9.15% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result -9.15% @ 104.49

We said

Cintas (CTAS) shares will gain more than 2% after earnings.

What happened

We said CTAS would be a winner. It closed -2.49% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result -2.49% @ 191.97

We said

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will gain 1.5% as cybersecurity demand remains robust.

What happened

We said PANW would be a winner. It closed +5.79% while the S&P 500 did -0.76%.

Result +5.79% @ 393.30

We said

Earnings Reports pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Tensions pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Macro Economic Data pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Technology Sector Sentiment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Cryptocurrency Performance pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That went against the call.

We said

Global Manufacturing pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.76%. That matched the call.

We said

CTAS: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

CTAS came in in line with expectations (1.39 vs 1.3817 expected). We said beat.

We said

PAYX: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)

What happened

PAYX came in in line with expectations (1.34 vs 1.3465 expected). We said beat.

We said

CBRL: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

CBRL came in above expectations (0.99 vs 0.1502 expected). We said beat.

We said

SFIX: we said beat (49% odds of a beat)

What happened

SFIX came in above expectations (-0.01 vs -0.0587 expected). We said beat.

We said

FUL: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

FUL came in above expectations (1.52 vs 1.4789 expected). We said beat.

We said

MANU: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

MANU came in below expectations (-0.16552799999999998 vs -0.102 expected). We said beat.

We said

COST earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

DRI earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SNX earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AFB earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BXMT earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LGCY earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SCHL earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

UEC earnings on 2026-09-25: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

TBN earnings on 2026-09-25: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.