The Report Card · Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Technology Leads as S&P 500 Adds 0.4% Tomorrow
Robust enterprise software demand and AI infrastructure build-out will drive technology stocks, pushing the S&P 500 up by 0.4% with 63% probability.
Accuracy
38%
Correct
6/16
Brier score
0.171
lower is better
We got 6 of 16 calls right on Tuesday, September 22, 2026.
By Category
0/0
n/a
0/0
n/a
0/9
0% accuracy
0/0
n/a
6/7
86% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
RUT up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
VIX down 2.50% (43% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
DXY up 0.10% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
US10Y down 0.01% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
CL down 0.80% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
GC up 0.30% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
SI up 0.60% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
BTC up 0.80% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
ETH up 1.00% (57% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
We said
NG down 0.50% (45% odds it rises)
What happened
No closing data available, so this call could not be judged.
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NOW at 137.68, take profit 147.79, cut it at 129.9
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy NVDA at 227.38, take profit 237.25, cut it at 219.79
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy AZO at 2803.25, take profit 2915.38, cut it at 2721.61
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy MSFT at 501.61, take profit 518.01, cut it at 489.01
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy CRM at 236.42, take profit 250.94, cut it at 225.25
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy PANW at 371.76, take profit 403.58, cut it at 347.27
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy KBH at 47.86, take profit 50.49, cut it at 45.84
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy AAPL at 338.98, take profit 351.25, cut it at 329.53
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Buy BTC-USD at 86982, take profit 90878.79, cut it at 83981.12
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
We said
Short WOR at 58.15, take profit 54.33, cut it at 61.09
What happened
No closing data available, so this trade could not be judged.
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Worthington Industries (WOR) will be among the biggest decliners.
What happened
We said WOR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Oil (CL) will extend its recent decline.
What happened
We said CL would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
KB Home (KBH) could see selling pressure if earnings disappoint.
What happened
We said KB would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Macy's (M) shares jump 5% on unexpected strategic partnership news.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
A major AI chip startup announces a new funding round at a significantly higher valuation than expected.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) reverses course and closes up 1.5% on unexpected supply news.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will close up at least 1.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Salesforce (CRM) will trade higher by at least 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) shares will advance by 0.8% or more.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will finish the day up 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will see its stock rise by 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Adobe (ADBE) stock will close higher by 1.2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will gain at least 1.3%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade flat to slightly higher, adding 0.2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Caterpillar (CAT) will rise by at least 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
American Express (AXP) will increase by 0.6%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Home Depot (HD) will see shares gain 0.3%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
KB Home (KBH) shares will experience a post-earnings move of at least 3% higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Worthington Industries (WOR) will see a post-earnings decline of at least 2.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
AutoZone (AZO) will trade up at least 1.8% after reporting earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will close below 4.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The magnitude of the consumer discretionary spending slowdown will become clearer.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The impact of rising labor costs on corporate margins will remain a key debate point.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The trajectory of inflation and its influence on Fed policy will continue to be a primary unknown.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
KB Home (KBH) will experience a large price swing post-earnings.
What happened
We said KB would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Worthington Industries (WOR) will show elevated trading volatility after its report.
What happened
We said WOR would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
AutoZone (AZO) shares will exhibit higher than average volatility after its earnings release.
What happened
We said AZO would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will be among the top performers.
What happened
We said NOW would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will see significant gains.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
We said
AutoZone (AZO) will be a top gainer post-earnings.
What happened
We said AZO would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did 0.00%.
Result 0.00%
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Supply Chain Dynamics pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Enterprise Software Demand pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
AI Infrastructure Build-out pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Interest Rate Expectations pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Earnings Reports (AZO, KBH, WOR) pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Energy Prices (Oil) pushes the market down
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Global Economic Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Geopolitical Stability pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
We said
Cryptocurrency Performance pushes the market up
What happened
No S&P 500 data, so this could not be judged.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AZO: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
AZO came in above expectations (56.05 vs 54.4026 expected). We said beat.
We said
KBH: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
KBH came in above expectations (1.05 vs 0.9022 expected). We said beat.
We said
FERG: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
FERG came in above expectations (3.39 vs 3.3541 expected). We said beat.
We said
THO: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
THO came in below expectations (0.78 vs 0.8904 expected). We said beat.
We said
WOR: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
WOR came in above expectations (0.82 vs 0.7575 expected). We said beat.
We said
MLKN: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
MLKN came in above expectations (0.42 vs 0.3621 expected). We said beat.
We said
AYTU: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
AYTU came in above expectations (-0.05 vs -0.3315 expected). We said beat.
We said
CTAS earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
PAYX earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SFIX earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FUL earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MANU earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
COST earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
DRI earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SNX earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SCHL earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.