The Report Card · Monday, September 21, 2026
Technology Leads S&P 500 Up 0.4% on AI Spending Outlook
Robust enterprise AI investment drives sector strength, boosting the S&P 500 by 0.4% with a 63% probability of a green close.
Accuracy
71%
Correct
27/38
Brier score
0.233
lower is better
We got 27 of 38 calls right on Monday, September 21, 2026.
By Category
8/13
62% accuracy
7/8
88% accuracy
6/8
75% accuracy
5/7
71% accuracy
1/2
50% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 1.49%, closing at 7764.70. Right direction, off by 1.09 percentage points on size.
Result +1.49% @ 7764.70
We said
NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 2.83%, closing at 30482.35. Right direction, off by 2.13 percentage points on size.
Result +2.83% @ 30482.35
We said
DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 0.71%, closing at 52048.83. Right direction, off by 0.41 percentage points on size.
Result +0.71% @ 52048.83
We said
RUT up 0.10% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.52%, closing at 2875.36. Right direction, off by 0.42 percentage points on size.
Result +0.52% @ 2875.36
We said
VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 0.41%, closing at 14.87. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.41% @ 14.87
We said
DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.21%, closing at 100.43. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.21% @ 100.43
We said
US10Y up 0.40% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y fell 0.70%, closing at 4.96. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.70% @ 4.96
We said
CL down 1.00% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 8.39%, closing at 91.88. Right direction, off by 7.39 percentage points on size.
Result -8.39% @ 91.88
We said
GC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.04%, closing at 4378.90. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.04% @ 4378.90
We said
SI up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 0.10%, closing at 66.49. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.10% @ 66.49
We said
BTC up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 7.26%, closing at 87030.42. Right direction, off by 6.46 percentage points on size.
Result +7.26% @ 87030.42
We said
ETH up 1.00% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 5.67%, closing at 2792.81. Right direction, off by 4.67 percentage points on size.
Result +5.67% @ 2792.81
We said
NG down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 2.68%, closing at 2.83. Right direction, off by 1.98 percentage points on size.
Result -2.68% @ 2.83
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NVDA at 222.27, take profit 231.92, cut it at 214.85
What happened
NVDA traded 221.56–228.50 and closed 227.38. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.30%.
Result +2.30% @ 227.38
We said
Buy MSFT at 493.78, take profit 509.83, cut it at 481.44
What happened
MSFT traded 491.33–501.87 and closed 501.61. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.59%.
Result +1.59% @ 501.61
We said
Buy SMCI at 39.09, take profit 42.9, cut it at 36.16
What happened
SMCI traded 40.00–41.72 and closed 41.20. The price never reached our 39.09 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 41.20
We said
Buy LLY at 1152.93, take profit 1194.32, cut it at 1121.08
What happened
LLY traded 1134.64–1170.90 and closed 1164.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.04%.
Result +1.04% @ 1164.89
We said
Buy PLTR at 177.64, take profit 189.19, cut it at 168.76
What happened
PLTR traded 176.76–183.38 and closed 183.09. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.07%.
Result +3.07% @ 183.09
We said
Buy GOOGL at 349.54, take profit 362.82, cut it at 339.32
What happened
GOOGL traded 349.10–357.58 and closed 354.97. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.55%.
Result +1.55% @ 354.97
We said
Buy AMZN at 253.71, take profit 262.79, cut it at 246.73
What happened
AMZN traded 253.60–259.49 and closed 258.45. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.87%.
Result +1.87% @ 258.45
We said
Buy DE at 683.99, take profit 711.69, cut it at 662.7
What happened
DE traded 683.62–695.05 and closed 684.73. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.11%.
Result +0.11% @ 684.73
We said
Short TSLA at 364.27, take profit 341.18, cut it at 382.03
What happened
TSLA traded 371.10–378.36 and closed 375.30. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.03%.
Result -3.03% @ 375.30
We said
Short OXY at 58.84, take profit 56.27, cut it at 60.82
What happened
OXY traded 57.00–58.29 and closed 57.25. The price never reached our 58.84 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 57.25
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Tesla (TSLA) will see selling pressure today.
What happened
We said TSLA would be a loser. It closed +3.03% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%.
Result +3.03% @ 375.30
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will decline.
What happened
We said OXY would be a loser. It closed -2.70% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%.
Result -2.70% @ 57.25
We said
Airbnb (ABNB) will face headwinds.
What happened
We said ABNB would be a loser. It closed +0.37% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result +0.37% @ 166.84
We said
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will close up at least 3.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) will close up at least 2.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The VIX (VIX) will close down more than 5.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology sector will be the top-performing sector today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will close up at least 2.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Tesla (TSLA) will close down at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will rise by at least 2 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Industrial stocks within the S&P 500 will outperform the S&P 500 by 0.2% or more.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Energy stocks will be the worst-performing sector today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Airbnb (ABNB) will close down at least 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.9%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will close up at least 1.8%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Deere & Company (DE) will close up at least 0.6%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 1.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Retail sales data, if released, would significantly shift the market.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Any new commentary from Federal Reserve officials could alter rate expectations.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Developments in the China-Taiwan relationship could create market instability.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will experience above-average volatility.
What happened
We said SMCI would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.40%.
Result +5.40% @ 41.20
We said
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will see significant price swings.
What happened
We said PLTR would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.07%.
Result +3.07% @ 183.09
We said
Boeing (BA) shares will be highly active.
What happened
We said BA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.49%.
Result +1.49% @ 201.15
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer in the S&P 500.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +2.30% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%.
Result +2.30% @ 227.38
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close with significant gains.
What happened
We said MSFT would be a winner. It closed +1.59% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%.
Result +1.59% @ 501.61
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will continue its upward trend.
What happened
We said LLY would be a winner. It closed +1.04% while the S&P 500 did +1.49%.
Result +1.04% @ 1164.89
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Supply Chain Resilience pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That matched the call.
We said
AI Investment Cycle pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That matched the call.
We said
Corporate Earnings Outlook pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That matched the call.
We said
US Economic Data pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Global Macro Stability pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Bond Yields pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That went against the call.
We said
Oil Prices pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That went against the call.
We said
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Cryptocurrency Performance pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That matched the call.
We said
Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.49%. That matched the call.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AIR: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
AIR came in above expectations (1.53 vs 1.3981 expected). We said beat.
We said
BNC: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
BNC came in in line with expectations (-0.1 vs — expected). We said beat.
We said
AZO earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FERG earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
KBH earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
THO earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MLKN earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
WOR earnings on 2026-09-22: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CTAS earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
PAYX earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SFIX earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FUL earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MANU earnings on 2026-09-23: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
COST earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
DRI earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SNX earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SCHL earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
BXMT earnings on 2026-09-24: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.