The Report Card · Friday, September 18, 2026
Software Stocks Drive S&P 500 0.4% Higher Today
Robust enterprise spending and continued AI integration will lift key software names, with a 62% probability of the S&P 500 closing green.
Accuracy
43%
Correct
17/40
Brier score
0.268
lower is better
We got 17 of 40 calls right on Friday, September 18, 2026.
By Category
8/13
62% accuracy
0/9
0% accuracy
4/9
44% accuracy
4/6
67% accuracy
1/3
33% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (57% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 0.17%, closing at 7650.50. Right direction, off by 0.23 percentage points on size.
Result +0.17% @ 7650.50
We said
NDX up 0.60% (59% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 0.67%, closing at 29644.17. Right direction, off by 0.07 percentage points on size.
Result +0.67% @ 29644.17
We said
DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.18%, closing at 51682.64. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.18% @ 51682.64
We said
RUT up 0.30% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 0.50%, closing at 2860.40. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.49% @ 2860.40
We said
VIX down 2.50% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 4.08%, closing at 14.81. Right direction, off by 1.58 percentage points on size.
Result -4.08% @ 14.81
We said
DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.03%, closing at 100.19. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.03% @ 100.19
We said
US10Y up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 1.03%, closing at 5.00. Right direction, off by 0.23 percentage points on size.
Result +1.03% @ 5.00
We said
CL down 0.80% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 6.33%, closing at 95.46. Right direction, off by 5.53 percentage points on size.
Result -6.33% @ 95.46
We said
GC down 0.60% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 0.48%, closing at 4420.80. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.48% @ 4420.80
We said
SI down 0.90% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 2.28%, closing at 66.96. We called the wrong direction.
Result +2.28% @ 66.97
We said
BTC up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 6.03%, closing at 81009.71. Right direction, off by 5.53 percentage points on size.
Result +6.03% @ 81009.71
We said
ETH up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 7.42%, closing at 2628.59. Right direction, off by 6.72 percentage points on size.
Result +7.42% @ 2628.59
We said
NG up 1.00% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 0.00%, closing at 2.90. Right direction, off by 1.00 percentage points on size.
Result 0.00% @ 2.90
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy MSFT at 497.75, take profit 514.42, cut it at 484.93
What happened
MSFT traded 491.10–498.65 and closed 493.78. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.80%.
Result -0.80% @ 493.78
We said
Buy NOW at 138.47, take profit 149.3, cut it at 130.14
What happened
NOW traded 135.07–139.94 and closed 135.47. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.17%.
Result -2.17% @ 135.47
We said
Buy MDB at 393.42, take profit 428.51, cut it at 366.42
What happened
MDB traded 381.48–397.39 and closed 383.56. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.51%.
Result -2.51% @ 383.56
We said
Buy CRWD at 245.7, take profit 267.67, cut it at 228.81
What happened
CRWD traded 234.90–247.50 and closed 237.65. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.28%.
Result -3.28% @ 237.65
We said
Buy ADBE at 252.67, take profit 269.42, cut it at 239.78
What happened
ADBE traded 247.21–252.67 and closed 248.92. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.48%.
Result -1.48% @ 248.92
We said
Buy ORCL at 150.59, take profit 163.71, cut it at 140.5
What happened
ORCL traded 144.40–150.90 and closed 147.61. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.98%.
Result -1.98% @ 147.61
We said
Buy CRM at 242.85, take profit 258.51, cut it at 230.8
What happened
CRM traded 236.54–244.25 and closed 237.92. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.03%.
Result -2.03% @ 237.92
We said
Buy FTNT at 172.58, take profit 184.56, cut it at 163.37
What happened
FTNT traded 166.09–172.94 and closed 169.84. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.59%.
Result -1.59% @ 169.84
We said
Buy DDOG at 236, take profit 253.44, cut it at 222.58
What happened
DDOG traded 228.60–238.96 and closed 229.92. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.58%.
Result -2.58% @ 229.92
We said
Short SLB at 52.08, take profit 48.59, cut it at 54.76
What happened
SLB traded 50.77–51.78 and closed 51.12. The price never reached our 52.08 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 51.12
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Schlumberger (SLB) stock will see downward pressure today.
What happened
We said SLB would be a loser. It closed -1.84% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -1.84% @ 51.12
We said
Halliburton (HAL) will close down today.
What happened
We said HAL would be a loser. It closed -1.15% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -1.15% @ 33.64
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will decline today.
What happened
We said OXY would be a loser. It closed -0.76% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -0.76% @ 58.84
We said
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will fall by 3-5 basis points today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The VIX (VIX) will spike by over 10% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oracle (ORCL) will close down by more than 1.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock will close up at least 0.8% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) stock will close up at least 0.7% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will close up at least 1.0% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
MongoDB (MDB) stock will close up at least 1.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CrowdStrike (CRWD) will close up at least 1.2% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Adobe (ADBE) stock will close up at least 0.8% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oracle (ORCL) will close up at least 0.6% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Salesforce (CRM) stock will close up at least 0.9% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Fortinet (FTNT) will close up at least 1.0% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Datadog (DDOG) stock will close up at least 1.3% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will close up at least 0.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will close flat or higher today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) will close up at least 0.6% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will close up at least 0.6% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) stock will close up at least 0.7% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Consumer Discretionary sector performance today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Real Estate sector performance today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Small-cap stock performance today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Natural Gas (NG) will experience significant price swings today.
What happened
We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00% @ 2.90
We said
Silver (SI) will show larger than average intraday moves today.
What happened
We said SI would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.28%.
Result +2.28% @ 66.97
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will see notable intraday volatility today.
What happened
We said BTC would swing hard (3%+). It moved +6.03%.
Result +6.03% @ 81009.71
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will be among the top performers today.
What happened
We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -2.17% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -2.17% @ 135.47
We said
MongoDB (MDB) will see significant gains today.
What happened
We said MDB would be a winner. It closed -2.51% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -2.51% @ 383.56
We said
CrowdStrike (CRWD) will outperform its peers today.
What happened
We said CRWD would be a winner. It closed -3.28% while the S&P 500 did +0.17%.
Result -3.28% @ 237.65
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That matched the call.
We said
Software Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That went against the call.
We said
Fed pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Inflation pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That matched the call.
We said
Oil pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That went against the call.
We said
Employment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. That matched the call.
We said
Housing pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +0.17%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
UPXI: we said beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
UPXI came in below expectations (-1.67 vs -0.204 expected). We said beat.
We said
AMEN: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
AMEN came in above expectations (-72 vs -106.08 expected). We said beat.
We said
BIOQ: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
BIOQ came in in line with expectations (-0.76 vs — expected). We said beat.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.