The Report Card · Thursday, September 17, 2026
Software Earnings Lift Nasdaq as Tech Outperforms
We expect the Nasdaq 100 to gain 0.5% tomorrow, driven by strong software results. We put the odds of a green Nasdaq close at 63%.
Accuracy
61%
Correct
20/33
Brier score
0.236
lower is better
We got 20 of 33 calls right on Thursday, September 17, 2026.
By Category
11/13
85% accuracy
2/5
40% accuracy
3/8
38% accuracy
3/4
75% accuracy
1/3
33% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SI up 0.40% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 2.31%, closing at 65.77. Right direction, off by 1.91 percentage points on size.
Result +2.31% @ 65.77
We said
SPX up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX rose 1.14%, closing at 7637.76. Right direction, off by 0.84 percentage points on size.
Result +1.14% @ 7637.76
We said
NDX up 0.50% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 1.73%, closing at 29446.98. Right direction, off by 1.23 percentage points on size.
Result +1.73% @ 29446.98
We said
DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI rose 0.61%, closing at 51778.04. Right direction, off by 0.41 percentage points on size.
Result +0.61% @ 51778.04
We said
RUT up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.55%, closing at 2874.63. Right direction, off by 0.45 percentage points on size.
Result +0.55% @ 2874.63
We said
VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX fell 12.82%, closing at 15.44. Right direction, off by 10.82 percentage points on size.
Result -12.82% @ 15.44
We said
DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.07%, closing at 100.24. Right direction, off by 0.03 percentage points on size.
Result -0.07% @ 100.24
We said
US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y fell 1.18%, closing at 4.95. Right direction, off by 0.68 percentage points on size.
Result -1.18% @ 4.95
We said
CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL fell 1.10%, closing at 101.30. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.10% @ 101.30
We said
GC up 0.30% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 0.09%, closing at 4383.40. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.09% @ 4383.40
We said
BTC up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 0.56%, closing at 76576.04. Right direction, off by 0.24 percentage points on size.
Result +0.56% @ 76576.04
We said
ETH up 1.00% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 1.51%, closing at 2452.60. Right direction, off by 0.51 percentage points on size.
Result +1.51% @ 2452.60
We said
NG down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 0.90%, closing at 2.87. Right direction, off by 0.60 percentage points on size.
Result -0.90% @ 2.87
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NOW at 139.82, take profit 151.7, cut it at 130.68
What happened
NOW traded 136.00–140.54 and closed 138.47. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.97%.
Result -0.97% @ 138.47
We said
Buy NVDA at 213.9, take profit 226.18, cut it at 204.46
What happened
NVDA traded 217.15–219.90 and closed 219.34. The price never reached our 213.9 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 219.34
We said
Buy CRM at 250.54, take profit 270.81, cut it at 234.94
What happened
CRM traded 241.52–246.91 and closed 242.85. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.07%.
Result -3.07% @ 242.85
We said
Buy MSFT at 490.3, take profit 507.61, cut it at 477
What happened
MSFT traded 493.27–501.47 and closed 497.75. The price never reached our 490.3 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 497.75
We said
Buy TSM at 417.72, take profit 434.14, cut it at 405.08
What happened
TSM traded 423.39–430.53 and closed 430.26. The price never reached our 417.72 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 430.26
We said
Buy PLTR at 174.34, take profit 186.16, cut it at 165.25
What happened
PLTR traded 172.61–177.88 and closed 176.24. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.09%.
Result +1.09% @ 176.24
We said
Buy GOOGL at 342.87, take profit 355.42, cut it at 333.23
What happened
GOOGL traded 343.89–349.50 and closed 347.33. The price never reached our 342.87 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 347.33
We said
Buy ADBE at 250.5, take profit 268.46, cut it at 236.69
What happened
ADBE traded 245.40–252.84 and closed 252.67. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.87%.
Result +0.87% @ 252.67
We said
Buy LLY at 1137.82, take profit 1178.9, cut it at 1106.25
What happened
LLY traded 1138.26–1159.75 and closed 1152.44. The price never reached our 1137.82 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 1152.44
We said
Short INTC at 101.05, take profit 92.54, cut it at 107.59
What happened
INTC traded 104.70–111.37 and closed 108.80. It hit our 107.59 exit first — the trade lost -6.47%.
Result -6.47% @ 108.80
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close down at least 0.1% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Intel (INTC) will underperform its peers.
What happened
We said INTC would be a loser. It closed +7.67% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%.
Result +7.67% @ 108.80
We said
Exxon Mobil (XOM) will see slight declines.
What happened
We said XOM would be a loser. It closed -0.03% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%.
Result -0.03% @ 163.27
We said
Southern Company (SO) will trade lower.
What happened
We said SO would be a loser. It closed +0.61% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result +0.61% @ 86.76
We said
US Q2 GDP Growth Rate will beat expectations with a 3.0% print or higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) will close down more than 1.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will rise by more than 5 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will close up at least 3% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will close up at least 2% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Adobe (ADBE) will close up at least 1.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 0.7% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.6% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Salesforce (CRM) will close up at least 1.8% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Intel (INTC) will close down at least 0.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) will close up at least 0.9% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will close up at least 0.4% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) will close up at least 0.8% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) will close up at least 1.2% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The direction of the US Dollar Index (DXY) for the day.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Consumer Discretionary sector performance given mixed economic signals.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The impact of any unexpected geopolitical news on energy prices.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will experience high trading volume and price swings.
What happened
We said NOW would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.97%.
Result -0.97% @ 138.47
We said
GFL Environmental (GFL) will see outsized moves.
What happened
We said GFL would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.26%.
Result +5.26% @ 43.23
We said
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) will trade with above-average volatility.
What happened
We said PLTR would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.09%.
Result +1.09% @ 176.24
We said
ServiceNow (NOW) will be among the day's top performers.
What happened
We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -0.97% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%.
Result -0.97% @ 138.47
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will see significant gains.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +2.54% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%.
Result +2.54% @ 219.34
We said
Salesforce (CRM) shares will climb.
What happened
We said CRM would be a winner. It closed -3.07% while the S&P 500 did +1.14%.
Result -3.07% @ 242.85
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Software Earnings Season pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. That matched the call.
We said
US Q2 GDP Revision pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Technology Sector Momentum pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. That matched the call.
We said
Initial Jobless Claims pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Treasury Yields pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Energy Prices pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Housing Market Data pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Dollar Strength pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. That went against the call.
We said
Crypto Market Sentiment pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. That matched the call.
We said
Federal Reserve Speakers pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished up +1.14%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
ESP: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
ESP came in above expectations (0.99 vs 0.8888 expected). We said beat.
We said
GFLT earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
INTE earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
TRT: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
TRT came in in line with expectations (0.02 vs — expected). We said beat.
We said
WDSP earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
GWOX earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
HUHU earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
ITOX earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
OWPC earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (68% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
RAVE: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
RAVE came in in line with expectations (0.04 vs — expected). We said beat.
We said
JF earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
BIOQ earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AMEN earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
UPXI earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.