FedEx Rallies, Lifts Industrials 0.7% on Logistics Optimism

We said

RUT up 0.20% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.40%, closing at 2858.81. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.40% @ 2858.81

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.45%, closing at 7551.81. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.45% @ 7551.81

We said

NDX up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.02%, closing at 28945.06. Right direction, off by 0.28 percentage points on size.

Result +0.03% @ 28945.06

We said

DJI up 0.50% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 1.21%, closing at 51461.90. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.21% @ 51461.90

We said

VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 2.97%, closing at 17.71. We called the wrong direction.

Result +2.96% @ 17.71

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.69%, closing at 100.34. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.69% @ 100.34

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.20%, closing at 5.01. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.20% @ 5.01

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 3.52%, closing at 102.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.52% @ 102.10

We said

GC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.75%, closing at 4300.30. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.75% @ 4300.30

We said

SI up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.24%, closing at 63.39. Right direction, off by 0.26 percentage points on size.

Result +0.24% @ 63.39

We said

BTC up 0.40% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.70%, closing at 76142.47. Right direction, off by 0.30 percentage points on size.

Result +0.70% @ 76142.47

We said

ETH up 0.50% (52% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.50%, closing at 2411.06. Right direction, off by 0.00 percentage points on size.

Result +0.50% @ 2411.06

We said

NG down 0.60% (49% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 0.99%, closing at 2.89. Right direction, off by 0.39 percentage points on size.

Result -0.99% @ 2.89

We said

Buy FDX at 308.26, take profit 322.13, cut it at 299.44

What happened

FDX traded 299.38–307.00 and closed 301.72. It hit our 299.44 exit first — the trade lost -2.86%.

Result -2.86% @ 301.72

We said

Buy LEN at 80.07, take profit 83.67, cut it at 77.3

What happened

LEN traded 77.83–81.45 and closed 78.36. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.14%.

Result -2.14% @ 78.36

We said

Buy XLI at 168.85, take profit 172.83, cut it at 165.79

What happened

XLI traded 167.49–170.67 and closed 168.71. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.08%.

Result -0.08% @ 168.71

We said

Buy ITB at 89.12, take profit 92.29, cut it at 86.68

What happened

ITB traded 87.51–90.10 and closed 88.12. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.12%.

Result -1.12% @ 88.12

We said

Buy ODFL at 180.96, take profit 190.46, cut it at 173.65

What happened

ODFL traded 173.02–180.00 and closed 174.36. It hit our 173.65 exit first — the trade lost -4.04%.

Result -4.04% @ 174.36

We said

Buy CAT at 783.54, take profit 817.7, cut it at 757.29

What happened

CAT traded 774.47–798.05 and closed 782.72. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.10%.

Result -0.10% @ 782.72

We said

Buy UPS at 102.35, take profit 105.3, cut it at 100.09

What happened

UPS traded 98.15–102.08 and closed 98.77. It hit our 100.09 exit first — the trade lost -2.21%.

Result -2.21% @ 98.77

We said

Buy NSC at 320.22, take profit 329.7, cut it at 312.93

What happened

NSC traded 316.48–323.78 and closed 317.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.01%.

Result -1.01% @ 317.00

We said

Short XLP at 83.73, take profit 82.3, cut it at 84.83

What happened

XLP traded 83.32–84.06 and closed 83.33. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.48%.

Result +0.48% @ 83.33

We said

Buy ZIM at 29.57, take profit 30.82, cut it at 28.61

What happened

ZIM traded 29.20–29.56 and closed 29.33. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.81%.

Result -0.81% @ 29.33

We said

ABM Industries (ABM) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

First Solar (FSLR) will decline by at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said FSLR would be a loser. It closed -5.57% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -5.57% @ 191.07

We said

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) will close down by at least 1.0%.

What happened

We said ZM would be a loser. It closed -1.21% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -1.21% @ 91.94

We said

Cloudflare (NET) will decline by at least 1.2%.

What happened

We said NET would be a loser. It closed -0.79% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -0.79% @ 324.65

We said

Oil (CL) will close up by more than 2.0% despite modest macro data.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The VIX will close down by more than 5%, indicating unexpected market calm.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 will close flat (within 0.1%) despite positive earnings.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

FedEx (FDX) will report Q1 EPS above analyst consensus by at least $0.20.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close up by more than 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Lennar (LEN) will report Q3 earnings per share that beat consensus estimates by at least 5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Parcel Service (UPS) will trade up by at least 1.0% tomorrow in sympathy with FedEx (FDX).

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) will close up by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Caterpillar (CAT) will trade up by at least 0.8%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Norfolk Southern (NSC) will close up by more than 1.0%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) will close up by at least 0.7%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Trane Technologies (TT) will close green tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Ingersoll Rand (IR) will trade up by at least 0.6%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Deere & Company (DE) will close up by at least 0.5%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) will decline by at least 2 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) will close up by more than 1.2%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Ryder System (R) will trade up by at least 0.9%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ABAT will see minimal price reaction to its earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

FDX's guidance commentary on China will be ambiguous.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

LUXE's post-earnings move will be largely determined by broader market sentiment.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

FedEx (FDX) will experience intraday price swings of more than 5%.

What happened

We said FDX would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.12%.

Result -2.12% @ 301.72

We said

Lennar (LEN) will trade with a range of at least 4% from its low to high.

What happened

We said LEN would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.14%.

Result -2.14% @ 78.36

We said

iRobot (IRBT) will have an intraday range exceeding 3%.

What happened

We said IRBT would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.

Result 0.00%

We said

FedEx (FDX) will be a top performer in the S&P 500, up at least 4.0%.

What happened

We said FDX would be a winner. It closed -2.12% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -2.12% @ 301.72

We said

Lennar (LEN) will close up by at least 3.5%.

What happened

We said LEN would be a winner. It closed -2.14% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -2.14% @ 78.36

We said

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) will close up by at least 2.5%.

What happened

We said ODFL would be a winner. It closed -3.65% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -3.65% @ 174.36

We said

Earnings Reports pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Global Trade Outlook pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Housing Market pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Treasury Yields pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That matched the call.

We said

Industrial Production pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Manufacturing PMI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed Commentary pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitical Risk pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

FDX: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

FDX came in above expectations (3.83 vs 3.6297 expected). We said beat.

We said

LEN: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

LEN came in below expectations (1.24 vs 1.254 expected). We said beat.

We said

ISPR: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

ISPR came in below expectations (-0.17 vs -0.0204 expected). We said beat.

We said

ABAT: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

ABAT came in below expectations (-0.26 vs -0.0663 expected). We said beat.

We said

ALMU: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

ALMU came in above expectations (-0.04 vs -0.0408 expected). We said beat.

We said

LUXE: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

LUXE came in above expectations (0.008666 vs -0.0796 expected). We said beat.

We said

WDSP earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

GFLT earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ESP earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GWOX earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HUHU earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

INTE earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ITOX earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

JF earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BIOQ earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AMEN earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

UPXI earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.