S&P 500 Gains 0.4% as Tech Earnings Provide Support

We said

SPX up 0.40% (59% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.45%, closing at 7585.73. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.45% @ 7585.73

We said

NDX up 0.60% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX fell 0.65%, closing at 28937.84. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.65% @ 28937.84

We said

DJI up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.63%, closing at 52093.11. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.63% @ 52093.11

We said

RUT up 0.50% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.76%, closing at 2870.29. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.76% @ 2870.29

We said

VIX down 3.50% (38% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 0.58%, closing at 17.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.58% @ 17.20

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.20%, closing at 99.66. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.20% @ 99.66

We said

US10Y down 0.80% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.71%, closing at 5.00. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.70% @ 5.00

We said

CL up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 4.37%, closing at 105.82. Right direction, off by 3.57 percentage points on size.

Result +4.37% @ 105.82

We said

GC up 0.60% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.39%, closing at 4334.90. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.39% @ 4334.90

We said

SI up 0.90% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.96%, closing at 64.13. Right direction, off by 0.06 percentage points on size.

Result +0.96% @ 64.13

We said

BTC up 1.00% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 3.22%, closing at 75645.04. We called the wrong direction.

Result -3.22% @ 75645.04

We said

ETH up 1.20% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 4.63%, closing at 2397.88. We called the wrong direction.

Result -4.63% @ 2397.88

We said

NG down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.52%, closing at 2.94. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.52% @ 2.94

We said

Buy VRA at 3.04, take profit 3.33, cut it at 2.82

What happened

VRA traded 3.24–4.15 and closed 4.09. The price never reached our 3.04 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 4.09

We said

Buy FPS at 28.64, take profit 31.69, cut it at 26.29

What happened

FPS traded 29.50–33.09 and closed 31.36. The price never reached our 28.64 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 31.36

We said

Buy XLY at 112.85, take profit 115.2, cut it at 111.04

What happened

XLY traded 110.56–112.61 and closed 110.88. It hit our 111.04 exit first — the trade lost -1.60%.

Result -1.60% @ 110.88

We said

Buy IBM at 249.09, take profit 259.73, cut it at 240.9

What happened

IBM traded 246.15–251.82 and closed 248.37. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.29%.

Result -0.29% @ 248.37

We said

Buy NVDA at 210.96, take profit 223.58, cut it at 201.26

What happened

NVDA traded 211.16–213.94 and closed 212.17. The price never reached our 210.96 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 212.17

We said

Buy MSFT at 505.41, take profit 522.39, cut it at 492.33

What happened

MSFT traded 495.54–505.90 and closed 497.12. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.64%.

Result -1.64% @ 497.12

We said

Buy LLY at 1138.28, take profit 1184.15, cut it at 1102.99

What happened

LLY traded 1131.59–1161.00 and closed 1136.11. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.19%.

Result -0.19% @ 1136.11

We said

Short XLP at 84.42, take profit 82.95, cut it at 85.55

What happened

XLP traded 83.57–84.06 and closed 83.73. The price never reached our 84.42 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 83.73

We said

Short GIS at 36.47, take profit 34.41, cut it at 38.05

What happened

GIS traded 35.91–36.79 and closed 36.58. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.30%.

Result -0.30% @ 36.58

We said

Short PLUR at 1.24, take profit 1.09, cut it at 1.36

What happened

PLUR traded 1.14–1.31 and closed 1.17. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +5.31%.

Result +5.31% @ 1.17

We said

Vera Bradley (VRA) will close up at least 8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Foot Locker (FPS) will close up at least 6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) will close up at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will close up at least 0.9% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

General Mills (GIS) will close down at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) will close down at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

PLUR (PLUR) will close down at least 10% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 1.1% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) will close flat or down tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) will close up at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The price of WTI Crude Oil (CL) will trade above $89.00 per barrel tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Vera Bradley (VRA) will lead consumer discretionary stocks higher.

What happened

We said VRA would be a winner. It closed +34.54% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result +34.54% @ 4.09

We said

Foot Locker (FPS) will see significant gains post-earnings.

What happened

We said FPS would be a winner. It closed +9.50% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result +9.50% @ 31.36

We said

General Mills (GIS) will decline after its earnings report.

What happened

We said GIS would be a loser. It closed +0.30% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result +0.30% @ 36.58

We said

PLUR (PLUR) will see a double-digit percentage drop.

What happened

We said PLUR would be a loser. It closed -5.31% while the S&P 500 did -0.45%.

Result -5.31% @ 1.17

We said

Vera Bradley (VRA) will experience high intraday volatility.

What happened

We said VRA would swing hard (3%+). It moved +34.54%.

Result +34.54% @ 4.09

We said

PLUR (PLUR) will trade with extreme swings.

What happened

We said PLUR would swing hard (3%+). It moved -5.31%.

Result -5.31% @ 1.17

We said

DDDX (DDDX) reports a surprising profit, driving its stock up sharply.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

A major Chinese tech stock not listed for US trading announces a surprise dividend hike, affecting US-listed Chinese ETFs.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

YI (YI) earnings report will provide unclear forward guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The impact of rising input costs on GIS (GIS) will be hard to quantify.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Earnings Reports pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Technology Sector pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation (PPI) pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed Speakers pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That went against the call.

We said

10Y Treasury Yield pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That matched the call.

We said

Dollar Index (DXY) pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. That matched the call.

We said

Global Economic Data pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitical Risks pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.45%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

FPS: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

FPS came in above expectations (0.25 vs 0.2421 expected). We said beat.

We said

VRA: we said beat (72% odds of a beat)

What happened

VRA came in above expectations (0.11 vs -0.0808 expected). We said beat.

We said

GIS: we said beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

GIS came in above expectations (0.95 vs 0.8052 expected). We said beat.

We said

PLUR: we said miss (44% odds of a beat)

What happened

PLUR came in below expectations (-0.71 vs -0.663 expected). We said miss.

We said

EPM: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

EPM came in below expectations (-0.26 vs -0.004 expected). We said beat.

We said

DDDX: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

DDDX came in in line with expectations (0 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

HERE: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

HERE came in in line with expectations (-0.406002 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

RZLT: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

RZLT came in above expectations (-0.16 vs -0.1825 expected). We said beat.

We said

LAES earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

YI: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

YI came in in line with expectations (-0.145 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

YYGH earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

FDX earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LEN earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ABAT earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ALMU earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ISPR earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LUXE earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

ESP earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

BIOQ earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AMEN earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

UPXI earnings on 2026-09-18: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.