The Report Card · Monday, September 14, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as Tech Leaders Advance
Robust earnings from key tech names support an upward drift for the broader market, with a 63% probability of a green close.
Accuracy
33%
Correct
13/40
Brier score
0.265
lower is better
We got 13 of 40 calls right on Monday, September 14, 2026.
By Category
5/13
38% accuracy
2/7
29% accuracy
3/9
33% accuracy
0/3
0% accuracy
3/8
38% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.48%, closing at 7619.98. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.48% @ 7619.98
We said
NDX up 0.60% (61% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 0.82%, closing at 29127.16. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.82% @ 29127.16
We said
DJI up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.29%, closing at 52421.20. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.29% @ 52421.20
We said
RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 0.40%, closing at 2892.24. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.40% @ 2892.24
We said
VIX down 2.00% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 7.95%, closing at 17.10. We called the wrong direction.
Result +7.96% @ 17.10
We said
DXY up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.38%, closing at 99.50. Right direction, off by 0.28 percentage points on size.
Result +0.38% @ 99.50
We said
US10Y down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y fell 0.28%, closing at 4.96. Right direction, off by 0.22 percentage points on size.
Result -0.28% @ 4.96
We said
CL up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 1.76%, closing at 101.81. Right direction, off by 1.26 percentage points on size.
Result +1.76% @ 101.81
We said
GC up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.64%, closing at 4336.50. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.64% @ 4336.50
We said
SI up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 1.32%, closing at 63.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.32% @ 63.70
We said
BTC up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC rose 3.39%, closing at 79443.49. Right direction, off by 2.59 percentage points on size.
Result +3.39% @ 79443.49
We said
ETH up 1.00% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH rose 4.96%, closing at 2599.77. Right direction, off by 3.96 percentage points on size.
Result +4.96% @ 2599.77
We said
NG down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 1.66%, closing at 2.88. We called the wrong direction.
Result +1.66% @ 2.88
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy MSFT at 495.34, take profit 511.69, cut it at 482.77
What happened
MSFT traded 495.34–509.93 and closed 505.41. The price never reached our 495.34 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 505.41
We said
Buy AMZN at 256.62, take profit 265.76, cut it at 249.6
What happened
AMZN traded 250.75–255.95 and closed 253.54. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.20%.
Result -1.20% @ 253.54
We said
Buy AAPL at 332.5, take profit 345.23, cut it at 322.69
What happened
AAPL traded 331.34–335.50 and closed 333.08. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.17%.
Result +0.17% @ 333.08
We said
Buy CBRL at 49.64, take profit 53.16, cut it at 46.93
What happened
CBRL traded 49.52–50.96 and closed 50.53. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.79%.
Result +1.79% @ 50.53
We said
Buy XLK at 187.85, take profit 192.77, cut it at 184.07
What happened
XLK traded 182.08–185.59 and closed 184.28. It hit our 184.07 exit first — the trade lost -2.01%.
Result -2.01% @ 184.28
We said
Short PLAY at 8.14, take profit 7.24, cut it at 8.83
What happened
PLAY traded 8.08–8.51 and closed 8.47. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -4.05%.
Result -4.05% @ 8.47
We said
Short HAIN at 0.6194, take profit 0.5451, cut it at 0.6813
What happened
HAIN traded 0.58–0.76 and closed 0.60. It hit our 0.6813 exit first — the trade lost -9.99%.
Result -9.99% @ 0.60
We said
Short KMTS at 22.85, take profit 20.9, cut it at 24.35
What happened
KMTS traded 22.87–24.43 and closed 24.06. It hit our 24.35 exit first — the trade lost -6.56%.
Result -6.57% @ 24.06
We said
Short XLU at 42.45, take profit 41.45, cut it at 43.22
What happened
XLU traded 41.75–42.44 and closed 41.82. The price never reached our 42.45 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 41.82
We said
Buy BTC at 34.16, take profit 35.69, cut it at 32.97
What happened
BTC traded 79443.49–79443.49 and closed 79443.49. The price never reached our 34.16 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 79443.49
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
The extent of consumer response to new product launches from Apple (AAPL).
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Dave & Buster's (PLAY) will fall by more than 3% after its earnings report.
What happened
We said PLAY would be a loser. It closed +4.05% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result +4.05% @ 8.47
We said
Hain Celestial (HAIN) will decline more than 2% on disappointing revenue.
What happened
We said HAIN would be a loser. It closed -3.21% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -3.21% @ 0.60
We said
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) will underperform the S&P 500.
What happened
We said SPDR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result 0.00%
We said
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) will close up more than 2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will fall below 4.0%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E) will close down more than 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) will report an EPS beat for its Q4 earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Dave & Buster's (PLAY) will issue conservative guidance for the next quarter.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Hain Celestial (HAIN) will miss revenue estimates.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Korn Ferry (KMTS) will report weaker-than-expected consulting segment performance.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
RLGT will move more than 5% after its earnings report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology sector will lead market gains with a rise of at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Industrial stocks like Emerson Electric (EMR) will see mild buying interest.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector will outperform Consumer Staples.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade within a tight 0.2% range.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will close higher on continued ETF inflows.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) futures will end the day flat to slightly positive.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) shares will gain at least 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will see buying interest ahead of upcoming product announcements.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade flat to slightly higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Whether the ISM Services PMI, due later this week, will show unexpected weakness.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The long-term impact of evolving AI regulations on semiconductor companies.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
RLGT will move more than 5% on its earnings.
What happened
We said RLGT would swing hard (3%+). It moved +0.98%.
Result +0.98% @ 8.21
We said
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) will see a price swing of at least 4% after its earnings.
What happened
We said CBRL would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.12%.
Result +2.12% @ 50.53
We said
Korn Ferry (KMTS) shares will swing at least 3% post-earnings.
What happened
We said KMTS would swing hard (3%+). It moved +5.30%.
Result +5.29% @ 24.06
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will gain more than 0.7%.
What happened
We said SPDR would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Apple (AAPL) shares will close higher by at least 0.7%.
What happened
We said AAPL would be a winner. It closed +0.24% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result +0.24% @ 333.08
We said
Amazon (AMZN) shares will rise by at least 0.6%.
What happened
We said AMZN would be a winner. It closed -1.26% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -1.26% @ 253.54
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Earnings Season Momentum pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
AI Spending Cycle pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Consumer Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
US Dollar Stability pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Treasury Yields pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil Prices pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Geopolitical Calm pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Inflation Expectations pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China Economy pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
LEN earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CBRL: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
CBRL came in above expectations (0.29 vs -0.4624 expected). We said beat.
We said
PLAY: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
PLAY came in below expectations (-0.27 vs 0.2477 expected). We said beat.
We said
HAIN: we said beat (54% odds of a beat)
What happened
HAIN came in below expectations (-0.05 vs -0.0303 expected). We said beat.
We said
KMTS: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
KMTS came in below expectations (-0.75 vs -0.6282 expected). We said beat.
We said
RLGT: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
RLGT came in above expectations (0.15 vs 0.0918 expected). We said beat.
We said
CLSD: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
CLSD came in below expectations (-1.14 vs -0.5355 expected). We said beat.
We said
CODA: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
CODA came in above expectations (0.12 vs 0.1163 expected). We said beat.
We said
HYFT: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
HYFT came in below expectations (-0.08 vs -0.0748 expected). We said beat.
We said
AXR earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FPS earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
GIS earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
VRA earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
EPM earnings on 2026-09-15: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FDX earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ISPR earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
LUXE earnings on 2026-09-16: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ESP earnings on 2026-09-17: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.