S&P 500 Adds 0.4% Tomorrow on Continued AI Demand

We said

NDX up 0.60% (60% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.91%, closing at 29368.44. Right direction, off by 0.31 percentage points on size.

Result +0.91% @ 29368.44

We said

SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX rose 0.86%, closing at 7656.98. Right direction, off by 0.46 percentage points on size.

Result +0.86% @ 7656.98

We said

DJI up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI rose 0.98%, closing at 52573.29. Right direction, off by 0.68 percentage points on size.

Result +0.98% @ 52573.29

We said

RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.45%, closing at 2903.94. Right direction, off by 0.25 percentage points on size.

Result +0.45% @ 2903.94

We said

VIX down 1.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX fell 11.21%, closing at 15.84. Right direction, off by 9.71 percentage points on size.

Result -11.21% @ 15.84

We said

DXY up 0.05% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.04%, closing at 99.13. Right direction, off by 0.01 percentage points on size.

Result +0.04% @ 99.13

We said

US10Y up 0.70% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.63%, closing at 4.97. Right direction, off by 0.07 percentage points on size.

Result +0.63% @ 4.97

We said

CL up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 2.18%, closing at 100.25. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.18% @ 100.25

We said

GC down 0.20% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.62%, closing at 4391.60. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.62% @ 4391.60

We said

SI down 0.40% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.99%, closing at 64.92. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.99% @ 64.92

We said

BTC up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 1.03%, closing at 77360.19. Right direction, off by 1.03 percentage points on size.

Result +1.03% @ 77360.19

We said

ETH up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 3.93%, closing at 2532.93. Right direction, off by 3.93 percentage points on size.

Result +3.93% @ 2532.93

We said

NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

NG fell 0.21%, closing at 2.83. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.21% @ 2.83

We said

Buy NVDA at 218.37, take profit 230.93, cut it at 208.71

What happened

NVDA traded 218.15–222.00 and closed 218.29. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.04%.

Result -0.04% @ 218.29

We said

Buy MSFT at 492.2, take profit 508.69, cut it at 479.53

What happened

MSFT traded 492.58–498.97 and closed 495.63. The price never reached our 492.2 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 495.63

We said

Buy AMZN at 251.89, take profit 260.86, cut it at 244.99

What happened

AMZN traded 253.14–257.59 and closed 256.78. The price never reached our 251.89 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 256.78

We said

Buy GOOGL at 332.6, take profit 343.94, cut it at 323.87

What happened

GOOGL traded 335.07–342.97 and closed 338.50. The price never reached our 332.6 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 338.50

We said

Buy ADBE at 242.95, take profit 258.79, cut it at 230.77

What happened

ADBE traded 241.52–255.30 and closed 252.23. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.82%.

Result +3.82% @ 252.23

We said

Buy CRM at 243.3, take profit 262.48, cut it at 228.55

What happened

CRM traded 243.26–250.55 and closed 247.72. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.82%.

Result +1.82% @ 247.72

We said

Buy SMCI at 37.45, take profit 40.86, cut it at 34.83

What happened

SMCI traded 37.56–40.44 and closed 40.10. The price never reached our 37.45 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 40.10

We said

Buy IBM at 234.25, take profit 244.11, cut it at 226.67

What happened

IBM traded 235.00–243.55 and closed 243.29. The price never reached our 234.25 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 243.29

We said

Buy XLF at 56.87, take profit 57.95, cut it at 56.04

What happened

XLF traded 56.96–57.62 and closed 57.25. The price never reached our 56.87 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 57.25

We said

Short UPS at 99.69, take profit 96.69, cut it at 101.99

What happened

UPS traded 99.05–100.89 and closed 100.28. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.59%.

Result -0.59% @ 100.28

We said

BUKS will report a surprise quarterly profit after a long streak of losses.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

United Parcel Service (UPS) will decline by at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

We said UPS would be a loser. It closed +0.31% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result +0.31% @ 100.28

We said

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) will decline by at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

We said WBA would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result 0.00%

We said

Duke Energy (DUK) will decline by at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

We said DUK would be a loser. It closed +0.04% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.

Result +0.04% @ 119.42

We said

August PPI data will show core producer prices rising 0.4% month-over-month, above consensus.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

TMXN will announce a significant strategic partnership after market close on Friday.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The S&P 500 will close above its 50-day moving average on Friday.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) will close up at least 0.6% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 1.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 0.9% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Adobe (ADBE) will close up at least 2.0% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.5% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) will close up at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPX) tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will close up at least 1.2% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) will close up at least 0.3% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) will rise by at least 1 basis point tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The price of WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) will remain flat to slightly down tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) will close up at least 0.7% tomorrow.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

CRMT's earnings release will offer mixed guidance, leading to muted stock movement.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

MNY's pre-market earnings report will show modest revenue growth but a decline in margins.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil prices will show no clear directional trend, ending the day within a 0.5% range.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

HOFT will move more than 7% in either direction after its pre-market earnings release.

What happened

We said HOFT would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.07%.

Result +2.07% @ 12.83

We said

RENT will see a price swing of at least 6% following its pre-market earnings.

What happened

We said RENT would swing hard (3%+). It moved -13.12%.

Result -13.12% @ 2.45

We said

ANAB will trade with a daily range exceeding 8% on Friday.

What happened

We said ANAB would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.34%.

Result -2.34% @ 53.87

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer in the S&P 500, up at least 1.5%.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -0.03% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%.

Result -0.03% @ 218.29

We said

Adobe (ADBE) will gain at least 2.0% on Friday.

What happened

We said ADBE would be a winner. It closed +1.37% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%.

Result +1.37% @ 252.23

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will gain at least 1.0% on Friday.

What happened

We said AMZN would be a winner. It closed +1.94% while the S&P 500 did +0.86%.

Result +1.94% @ 256.78

We said

AI Investment Cycle pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. That matched the call.

We said

Corporate Earnings Expectations pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. That went against the call.

We said

Inflation (PPI) pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Technology Sector Leadership pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. That matched the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. That matched the call.

We said

Federal Reserve Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Global Economic Growth pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Energy Prices pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished up +0.86%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

ANAB: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

ANAB came in below expectations (-1.84 vs -0.6159 expected). We said beat.

We said

HOFT: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

HOFT came in above expectations (0.11 vs -0.0204 expected). We said beat.

We said

BUKS: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

BUKS came in in line with expectations (0.08 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

CRMT: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

CRMT came in above expectations (0.48 vs -0.6018 expected). We said beat.

We said

MNY: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

MNY came in below expectations (-0.03 vs -0.0202 expected). We said beat.

We said

RENT: we said beat (62% odds of a beat)

What happened

RENT came in above expectations (-0.2 vs -4.4166 expected). We said beat.

We said

TMXN earnings on 2026-09-11: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.