The Report Card · Thursday, September 10, 2026
Oracle Earnings Lift Nasdaq, S&P 500 Adds 0.4%
Oracle's cloud momentum and strong guidance will drive tech optimism, pushing the S&P 500 up with 60% probability.
Accuracy
33%
Correct
16/49
Brier score
0.270
lower is better
We got 16 of 49 calls right on Thursday, September 10, 2026.
By Category
4/13
31% accuracy
3/10
30% accuracy
1/8
13% accuracy
1/6
17% accuracy
7/12
58% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.58%, closing at 7591.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.58% @ 7591.70
We said
NDX up 0.60% (57% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 1.08%, closing at 29103.51. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.08% @ 29103.51
We said
DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.60%, closing at 52064.10. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.60% @ 52064.10
We said
RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 1.04%, closing at 2890.95. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.04% @ 2890.95
We said
VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 8.38%, closing at 17.84. We called the wrong direction.
Result +8.38% @ 17.84
We said
DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.34%, closing at 99.11. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.34% @ 99.11
We said
US10Y up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 2.21%, closing at 4.94. Right direction, off by 1.71 percentage points on size.
Result +2.21% @ 4.94
We said
CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 7.27%, closing at 103.03. Right direction, off by 6.77 percentage points on size.
Result +7.27% @ 103.03
We said
GC down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.31%, closing at 4358.00. Right direction, off by 1.01 percentage points on size.
Result -1.31% @ 4358.00
We said
SI down 0.40% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 5.73%, closing at 64.05. Right direction, off by 5.33 percentage points on size.
Result -5.73% @ 64.05
We said
BTC up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 1.32%, closing at 77223.14. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.32% @ 77223.14
We said
ETH up 0.40% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 0.14%, closing at 2463.48. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.14% @ 2463.48
We said
NG down 0.80% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 0.64%, closing at 2.84. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.64% @ 2.84
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy ORCL at 162.29, take profit 172.87, cut it at 154.16
What happened
ORCL traded 152.61–159.22 and closed 152.94. It hit our 154.16 exit first — the trade lost -5.01%.
Result -5.01% @ 152.94
We said
Buy ADBE at 255.17, take profit 271.04, cut it at 242.96
What happened
ADBE traded 247.20–255.00 and closed 248.83. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.48%.
Result -2.48% @ 248.83
We said
Buy CPRT at 32.03, take profit 33.59, cut it at 30.83
What happened
CPRT traded 30.54–32.26 and closed 30.75. It hit our 30.83 exit first — the trade lost -3.75%.
Result -3.75% @ 30.75
We said
Buy IBEX at 37.04, take profit 38.84, cut it at 35.66
What happened
IBEX traded 36.81–37.82 and closed 37.26. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.59%.
Result +0.59% @ 37.26
We said
Buy LOVE at 16.03, take profit 17.16, cut it at 15.16
What happened
LOVE traded 13.95–15.31 and closed 14.26. It hit our 15.16 exit first — the trade lost -5.43%.
Result -5.43% @ 14.26
We said
Buy SMCI at 38.85, take profit 42.39, cut it at 36.13
What happened
SMCI traded 37.37–39.26 and closed 37.38. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.78%.
Result -3.78% @ 37.38
We said
Buy CRM at 244.16, take profit 263.08, cut it at 229.6
What happened
CRM traded 241.75–248.50 and closed 243.00. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.48%.
Result -0.47% @ 243.00
We said
Short XLU at 42.95, take profit 41.91, cut it at 43.74
What happened
XLU traded 42.51–43.25 and closed 42.52. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.00%.
Result +1.00% @ 42.52
We said
Short IYR at 100.92, take profit 99.23, cut it at 102.22
What happened
IYR traded 99.81–101.32 and closed 99.97. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.94%.
Result +0.94% @ 99.97
We said
Buy FLWS at 3.49, take profit 3.8, cut it at 3.25
What happened
FLWS traded 2.90–3.37 and closed 3.04. It hit our 3.25 exit first — the trade lost -6.88%.
Result -6.88% @ 3.04
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) will close down at least 0.5%.
What happened
We said SPDR would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result 0.00%
We said
The iShares US Real Estate ETF (IYR) will fall by at least 0.4%.
What happened
We said US would be a loser. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result 0.00%
We said
Shares of First Solar (FSLR) will experience a modest decline of 1% or more.
What happened
We said FSLR would be a loser. It closed +2.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result +2.00% @ 207.17
We said
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close below 104.50.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The VIX will unexpectedly rise by more than 5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Tenon Medical (TEN) will surprise with an earnings beat and positive guidance, sending shares up 15%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oracle (ORCL) shares will open up at least 5% on Thursday.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Adobe (ADBE) will forecast Q4 revenue above analyst consensus.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Nasdaq 100 will close above its 50-day moving average.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Shares of Workday (WDAY) will rise at least 1.5% on Thursday.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 Technology sector will outperform the broader S&P 500 by at least 0.3%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury will rise by at least 2 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Shares of Salesforce (CRM) will trade up by at least 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Russell 2000 will finish the session in positive territory.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The price of WTI Crude Oil (CL) will trade above $78 per barrel at close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will trade below 104.80 by the end of the session.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Copart (CPRT) will report better-than-expected revenue for Q4.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Shares of Flowserve (FLS) will close higher after its earnings report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
LOVE SACS (LOVE) will report Q2 EPS above consensus estimates.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Energy sector will end the day with a gain of at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBEX Holdings (IBEX) will report Q4 earnings per share (EPS) that meets or exceeds analyst expectations.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Flowserve (FLS) shares will move less than 1% in either direction after its earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The price of Gold (GC) will remain within a $10 range of its opening price for the session.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Shares of MCFT Inc. (MCFT) will show minimal reaction to its pre-market earnings report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oracle (ORCL) shares will trade with an intraday range of at least 7%.
What happened
We said ORCL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -5.38%.
Result -5.38% @ 152.94
We said
Adobe (ADBE) shares will experience an intraday high-low spread exceeding 5%.
What happened
We said ADBE would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.37%.
Result -2.37% @ 248.83
We said
Shares of RLGT Resources (RLGT) will see an intraday price swing of at least 8% on unspecified earnings.
What happened
We said RLGT would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.85%.
Result -0.84% @ 8.21
We said
Oracle (ORCL) will see its stock rise by at least 5% following its earnings report.
What happened
We said ORCL would be a winner. It closed -5.38% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result -5.38% @ 152.94
We said
Adobe (ADBE) shares will gain at least 2% after reporting earnings.
What happened
We said ADBE would be a winner. It closed -2.37% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result -2.37% @ 248.83
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will increase by at least 0.7%.
What happened
We said SPDR would be a winner. It closed 0.00% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%. It beat the market but not the direction, so we call it a wash.
Result 0.00%
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Earnings Season (ORCL, ADBE) pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That matched the call.
We said
Inflation (PPI) pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
AI Investments pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Oil pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
China pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Consumer Spending (Adobe) pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Global Economic Growth pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
ADBE earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
ORCL earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.
We said
CPRT: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
CPRT came in below expectations (0.35 vs 0.3898 expected). We said beat.
We said
IBEX: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
IBEX came in below expectations (0.85 vs 0.8619 expected). We said beat.
We said
LOVE: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
LOVE came in above expectations (-0.35 vs -0.3652 expected). We said beat.
We said
AENT: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
AENT came in above expectations (0.05 vs 0.0102 expected). We said beat.
We said
EVI: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
EVI came in below expectations (0.05 vs 0.1616 expected). We said beat.
We said
FLWS: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
FLWS came in below expectations (-0.8 vs -0.7004 expected). We said beat.
We said
MCFT: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
MCFT came in above expectations (0.67 vs 0.6545 expected). We said beat.
We said
SHOE: we said beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
SHOE came in below expectations (0.23 vs 0.3366 expected). We said beat.
We said
RLGT: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
RLGT came in above expectations (0.11 vs 0.0663 expected). We said beat.
We said
TEN: we said beat (60% odds of a beat)
What happened
TEN came in above expectations (3.14 vs 2.5041 expected). We said beat.
We said
FEIM: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
FEIM came in above expectations (0.41 vs 0.2244 expected). We said beat.
We said
LPTH: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
LPTH came in above expectations (-0.02 vs -0.0204 expected). We said beat.
We said
ANAB earnings on 2026-09-11: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CRMT earnings on 2026-09-11: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
HOFT earnings on 2026-09-11: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.