The Report Card · Wednesday, September 9, 2026
S&P 500 Gains 0.4%, Tech Leads
Robust consumer spending in the face of persistent inflation supports broader market strength, with a 63% probability of an S&P 500 green close.
Accuracy
45%
Correct
22/49
Brier score
0.215
lower is better
By Category
3/13
23% accuracy
2/8
25% accuracy
5/9
56% accuracy
0/6
0% accuracy
12/13
92% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.48%, closing at 7636.36. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.48% @ 7636.36
We said
NDX up 0.60% (60% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 0.29%, closing at 29421.55. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.29% @ 29421.55
We said
DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.77%, closing at 52380.66. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.77% @ 52380.66
We said
RUT up 0.20% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 1.32%, closing at 2921.23. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.32% @ 2921.23
We said
VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 4.71%, closing at 16.46. We called the wrong direction.
Result +4.71% @ 16.46
We said
DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.01%, closing at 98.83. Right direction, off by 0.09 percentage points on size.
Result -0.01% @ 98.83
We said
US10Y up 0.50% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.65%, closing at 4.84. Right direction, off by 0.15 percentage points on size.
Result +0.65% @ 4.84
We said
CL up 1.00% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 4.08%, closing at 96.83. Right direction, off by 3.08 percentage points on size.
Result +4.08% @ 96.83
We said
GC down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 1.05%, closing at 4440.20. We called the wrong direction.
Result +1.05% @ 4440.20
We said
SI down 0.40% (48% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 2.32%, closing at 67.83. We called the wrong direction.
Result +2.32% @ 67.83
We said
BTC up 1.20% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 0.27%, closing at 78225.10. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.27% @ 78225.10
We said
ETH up 1.40% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 0.72%, closing at 2467.03. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.72% @ 2467.03
We said
NG up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 3.81%, closing at 2.81. We called the wrong direction.
Result -3.81% @ 2.81
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy CHWY at 23.32, take profit 24.92, cut it at 22.09
What happened
CHWY traded 20.35–22.41 and closed 20.75. It hit our 22.09 exit first — the trade lost -5.27%.
Result -5.27% @ 20.75
We said
Buy SAIL at 18.02, take profit 19.89, cut it at 16.58
What happened
SAIL traded 16.78–18.31 and closed 17.58. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.44%.
Result -2.44% @ 17.58
We said
Buy ASO at 44.6, take profit 47.02, cut it at 42.74
What happened
ASO traded 46.83–51.24 and closed 51.15. The price never reached our 44.6 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 51.15
We said
Buy KFY at 81.77, take profit 84.94, cut it at 79.32
What happened
KFY traded 76.63–82.00 and closed 81.13. It hit our 79.32 exit first — the trade lost -3.00%.
Result -3.00% @ 81.13
We said
Buy KR at 57.34, take profit 59.59, cut it at 55.61
What happened
KR traded 56.37–57.38 and closed 56.44. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.57%.
Result -1.57% @ 56.44
We said
Buy CL at 88.41, take profit 93.67, cut it at 84.37
What happened
CL traded 93.76–96.93 and closed 96.83. The price never reached our 88.41 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 96.83
We said
Short AEO at 17.22, take profit 16.11, cut it at 18.07
What happened
AEO traded 16.76–17.42 and closed 16.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.92%.
Result +1.92% @ 16.89
We said
Short RH at 142.45, take profit 129.81, cut it at 152.17
What happened
RH traded 138.77–143.63 and closed 139.37. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.16%.
Result +2.16% @ 139.37
We said
Short SIG at 83.3, take profit 78.26, cut it at 87.17
What happened
SIG traded 95.00–103.00 and closed 102.48. It hit our 87.17 exit first — the trade lost -4.65%.
Result -4.65% @ 102.48
We said
Buy NG at 7.9, take profit 8.39, cut it at 7.53
What happened
NG traded 2.80–2.91 and closed 2.81. It hit our 7.53 exit first — the trade lost -4.68%.
Result -4.68% @ 2.81
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will drop following its earnings report.
What happened
We said AEO would be a loser. It closed -1.92% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -1.92% @ 16.89
We said
Adobe (ADBE) shares will see pressure on conservative guidance.
What happened
We said ADBE would be a loser. It closed -0.93% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -0.93% @ 254.86
We said
RH (RH) could see a decline due to concerns over luxury home goods demand.
What happened
We said RH would be a loser. It closed -2.16% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -2.16% @ 139.37
We said
RH (RH) beats earnings expectations and guides positively, sending shares up significantly.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Federal Reserve officials signal a shift towards a more dovish stance.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) drops more than 2% due to an unexpected increase in global supply forecasts.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Chewy (CHWY) will close up at least 3% today after its earnings report.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Kroger (KR) will close up at least 1% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will fall more than 2% after reporting earnings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Russell 2000 (RUT) will outperform the Dow (DJI) by at least 0.2 percentage points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oracle (ORCL) will announce better-than-expected cloud revenue growth.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Adobe (ADBE) will forecast conservative Q4 guidance.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will gain at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) will close positive.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index will close up by at least 0.1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Crude Oil (CL) prices will finish the session higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The DXY will remain below its prior day's close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Sailpoint Technologies (SAIL) will beat EPS estimates for Q2.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Korn Ferry (KFY) will report revenue above consensus.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will rise by more than 3 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK) will experience a price decline today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Kroger (KR)'s specific revenue breakdown by category will be mixed, causing intraday swings.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Coherent (COO) earnings will show mixed results from different business segments.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The impact of rising crude prices on airline stocks will be unclear by close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Chewy (CHWY) shares will move more than 5% in either direction.
What happened
We said CHWY would swing hard (3%+). It moved -10.83%.
Result -10.83% @ 20.75
We said
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) will experience high trading volume and price movement.
What happened
We said AEO would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.92%.
Result -1.92% @ 16.89
We said
The VIX (VIX) will move outside its typical daily range by the close.
What happened
We said VIX would swing hard (3%+). It moved +4.71%.
Result +4.71% @ 16.46
We said
Chewy (CHWY) will lead consumer discretionary stocks higher today.
What happened
We said CHWY would be a winner. It closed -10.83% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -10.83% @ 20.75
We said
Oracle (ORCL) shares will gain on strong cloud results.
What happened
We said ORCL would be a winner. It closed -0.55% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -0.55% @ 161.63
We said
Sailpoint Technologies (SAIL) will see significant upside on strong earnings.
What happened
We said SAIL would be a winner. It closed -1.18% while the S&P 500 did -0.48%.
Result -1.18% @ 17.58
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Consumer Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Inflation & Rates pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Technology Sector Momentum pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Oil & Geopolitics pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Labor Market pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Enterprise Software Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Retail Earnings pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China Economic Data pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Healthcare Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. That went against the call.
We said
Housing Market pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.48%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CHWY: we said beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
CHWY came in above expectations (0.36 vs 0.183 expected). We said beat.
We said
ASO: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
ASO came in above expectations (2.31 vs 2.1056 expected). We said beat.
We said
KFY: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
KFY came in above expectations (1.43 vs 1.3716 expected). We said beat.
We said
SAIL: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
SAIL came in above expectations (0.09 vs 0.0812 expected). We said beat.
We said
KR: we said beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
KR came in below expectations (1.58 vs 1.6397 expected). We said beat.
We said
RH: we said beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
RH came in above expectations (-1.97 vs -2.1741 expected). We said beat.
We said
AEO: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
AEO came in above expectations (0.79 vs 0.2161 expected). We said beat.
We said
CNM: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
CNM came in above expectations (0.94 vs 0.9248 expected). We said beat.
We said
SIG: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
SIG came in above expectations (2.19 vs 1.7538 expected). We said beat.
We said
AVAV: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
AVAV came in above expectations (1.84 vs 1.4937 expected). We said beat.
We said
COO: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
COO came in above expectations (1.21 vs 1.107 expected). We said beat.
We said
SUNB: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
SUNB came in above expectations (1.18 vs 1.0556 expected). We said beat.
We said
DXLG: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
DXLG came in above expectations (0.05 vs -0.0408 expected). We said beat.
We said
ADBE earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ORCL earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CPRT earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.