The Report Card · Tuesday, September 8, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.4% as Chip Demand Boosts Tech
Robust AI spending continues to drive growth in the semiconductor sector, lifting broader indexes; we put the odds of a green S&P close at 62%.
Accuracy
32%
Correct
12/38
Brier score
0.245
lower is better
By Category
5/13
38% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
2/6
33% accuracy
0/7
0% accuracy
4/5
80% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (57% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.58%, closing at 7673.52. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.58% @ 7673.52
We said
NDX up 0.70% (59% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 0.12%, closing at 29507.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.12% @ 29507.70
We said
DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 1.18%, closing at 52786.07. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.18% @ 52786.07
We said
RUT up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 0.52%, closing at 2960.20. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.52% @ 2960.20
We said
VIX down 2.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 2.75%, closing at 15.72. We called the wrong direction.
Result +2.75% @ 15.72
We said
DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY fell 0.30%, closing at 98.86. Right direction, off by 0.20 percentage points on size.
Result -0.30% @ 98.86
We said
US10Y up 0.80% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.46%, closing at 4.81. Right direction, off by 0.34 percentage points on size.
Result +0.46% @ 4.81
We said
CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 2.80%, closing at 94.04. Right direction, off by 2.30 percentage points on size.
Result +2.80% @ 94.04
We said
GC down 0.30% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 0.59%, closing at 4403.80. Right direction, off by 0.29 percentage points on size.
Result -0.59% @ 4403.80
We said
SI down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 0.52%, closing at 66.39. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.52% @ 66.39
We said
BTC up 1.00% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 0.86%, closing at 78438.01. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.86% @ 78438.01
We said
ETH up 1.50% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 0.40%, closing at 2481.01. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.40% @ 2481.01
We said
NG down 0.80% (44% odds it rises)
What happened
NG fell 2.35%, closing at 2.90. Right direction, off by 1.55 percentage points on size.
Result -2.35% @ 2.90
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NVDA at 229.5, take profit 241.85, cut it at 220
What happened
NVDA traded 224.85–233.71 and closed 225.73. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.64%.
Result -1.64% @ 225.73
We said
Buy AMD at 476.25, take profit 506.21, cut it at 453.21
What happened
AMD traded 486.57–512.36 and closed 505.74. The price never reached our 476.25 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 505.74
We said
Buy MSFT at 499.7, take profit 516.09, cut it at 487.08
What happened
MSFT traded 490.15–495.19 and closed 493.95. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.15%.
Result -1.15% @ 493.95
We said
Buy TSM at 427.88, take profit 445.13, cut it at 414.62
What happened
TSM traded 433.72–444.29 and closed 439.00. The price never reached our 427.88 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 439.00
We said
Buy ADBE at 266.44, take profit 283.47, cut it at 253.35
What happened
ADBE traded 254.25–262.80 and closed 257.26. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.45%.
Result -3.44% @ 257.26
We said
Short CHWY at 23.66, take profit 22.02, cut it at 24.92
What happened
CHWY traded 22.89–23.94 and closed 23.27. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.65%.
Result +1.65% @ 23.27
We said
Short UNFI at 44.54, take profit 41.99, cut it at 46.5
What happened
UNFI traded 43.60–47.73 and closed 44.93. It hit our 46.5 exit first — the trade lost -4.40%.
Result -4.40% @ 44.93
We said
Buy CASY at 756.09, take profit 798.2, cut it at 723.67
What happened
CASY traded 730.40–767.98 and closed 733.49. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.99%.
Result -2.99% @ 733.49
We said
Buy LLY at 1146.59, take profit 1203.58, cut it at 1102.73
What happened
LLY traded 1113.55–1134.53 and closed 1123.91. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.98%.
Result -1.98% @ 1123.91
We said
Buy AVGO at 357.07, take profit 375.82, cut it at 342.65
What happened
AVGO traded 362.74–372.70 and closed 368.56. The price never reached our 357.07 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 368.56
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will gain more than 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Coca-Cola (KO) will close down.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Exxon Mobil (XOM) will close up.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will decline today.
What happened
We said OXY would be a loser. It closed +1.02% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result +1.02% @ 60.65
We said
Dollar Tree (DLTR) will close down at least 1%.
What happened
We said DLTR would be a loser. It closed -5.62% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result -5.62% @ 124.04
We said
Qualcomm (QCOM) will announce a major AI chip design win with a leading smartphone manufacturer.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Costco Wholesale (COST) will announce a special dividend.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will outperform the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will trade flat to slightly higher, adding less than 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.8%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) will close up at least 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will close in positive territory.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Home Depot (HD) will close slightly higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Salesforce (CRM) will close up.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Netflix (NFLX) will close higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
General Electric (GE) will close up.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) will close higher.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 (SPX) will trade within a 0.2% range for the entire session.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will close unchanged.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Caseys General Stores (CASY) shares will move by at least 5% after its earnings report.
What happened
We said CASY would swing hard (3%+). It moved -2.99%.
Result -2.99% @ 733.49
We said
UNFI Inc (UNFI) will see a price swing greater than 6% following its earnings release.
What happened
We said UNFI would swing hard (3%+). It moved +2.28%.
Result +2.28% @ 44.93
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer in the S&P 500 (SPX).
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed -2.01% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result -2.01% @ 225.73
We said
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will close up at least 1.5%.
What happened
We said AMD would be a winner. It closed +5.90% while the S&P 500 did -0.58%.
Result +5.90% @ 505.74
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Technology Sector Earnings pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Manufacturing Output pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
10Y Treasury Yield pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Energy Prices (Oil) pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Geopolitical Stability pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Federal Reserve Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Biotechnology Innovation pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
We said
Cryptocurrency Performance pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.58%. That went against the call.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
CASY: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
CASY came in above expectations (4.37 vs 3.3622 expected). We said beat.
We said
ABM: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
ABM came in above expectations (1.04 vs 1.0244 expected). We said beat.
We said
UNFI: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
UNFI came in above expectations (0.69 vs 0.6242 expected). We said beat.
We said
WDH: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
WDH came in in line with expectations (0.335525 vs — expected). We said beat.
We said
AVO: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
AVO came in above expectations (0.18 vs 0.1162 expected). We said beat.
We said
CHWY earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AEO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ASO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
COO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
KR earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
RH earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SIG earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CNM earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SUNB earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ADBE earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ORCL earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CPRT earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (74% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.