The Report Card · Monday, September 7, 2026
S&P 500 Adds 0.4% As AI Demand Fuels Tech Growth
Robust enterprise AI adoption continues to drive strong performance in key technology names, putting the odds of a green S&P close at 63%.
Accuracy
27%
Correct
7/26
Brier score
0.262
lower is better
By Category
5/12
42% accuracy
0/3
0% accuracy
2/7
29% accuracy
0/3
0% accuracy
0/1
0% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.40% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.38%, closing at 7718.60. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.38% @ 7718.60
We said
NDX up 0.70% (61% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX rose 0.21%, closing at 29544.15. Right direction, off by 0.49 percentage points on size.
Result +0.21% @ 29544.15
We said
DJI up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.51%, closing at 53414.25. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.51% @ 53414.25
We said
RUT up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT rose 0.25%, closing at 2975.65. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.
Result +0.25% @ 2975.65
We said
VIX down 1.50% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 5.30%, closing at 15.30. We called the wrong direction.
Result +5.30% @ 15.30
We said
DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.02%, closing at 99.18. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.02% @ 99.18
We said
US10Y down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.46%, closing at 4.78. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.46% @ 4.78
We said
CL up 0.50% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 0.00%, closing at 91.48. Right direction, off by 0.50 percentage points on size.
Result 0.00% @ 91.48
We said
GC up 0.30% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
GC rose 1.06%, closing at 4476.60. Right direction, off by 0.76 percentage points on size.
Result +1.06% @ 4476.60
We said
SI up 0.40% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
SI rose 1.06%, closing at 66.75. Right direction, off by 0.66 percentage points on size.
Result +1.06% @ 66.75
We said
BTC up 0.80% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 1.42%, closing at 79207.14. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.42% @ 79207.14
We said
ETH up 1.00% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 0.95%, closing at 2490.55. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.95% @ 2490.55
We said
NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 0.00%, closing at 2.97. Both the call and the day were flat.
Result 0.00% @ 2.98
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy NVDA at 230.05, take profit 242.42, cut it at 220.53
What happened
NVDA traded 230.36–230.36 and closed 230.36. The price never reached our 230.05 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 230.36
We said
Buy MSFT at 499.37, take profit 515.75, cut it at 486.77
What happened
MSFT traded 499.70–499.70 and closed 499.70. The price never reached our 499.37 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 499.70
We said
Buy AMZN at 258.1, take profit 267.62, cut it at 250.78
What happened
AMZN traded 258.51–258.51 and closed 258.51. The price never reached our 258.1 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 258.51
We said
Buy IBM at 234.61, take profit 243.5, cut it at 227.78
What happened
IBM traded 234.89–234.89 and closed 234.89. The price never reached our 234.61 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 234.89
We said
Buy GOOGL at 338.69, take profit 349.43, cut it at 330.43
What happened
GOOGL traded 338.46–338.46 and closed 338.46. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.07%.
Result -0.07% @ 338.46
We said
Buy LLY at 1145.06, take profit 1201.97, cut it at 1101.26
What happened
LLY traded 1149.36–1149.36 and closed 1149.36. The price never reached our 1145.06 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 1149.36
We said
Buy META at 615.38, take profit 645.66, cut it at 592.07
What happened
META traded 616.77–616.77 and closed 616.77. The price never reached our 615.38 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 616.77
We said
Buy DAL at 80.17, take profit 83.8, cut it at 77.37
What happened
DAL traded 80.17–80.17 and closed 80.17. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.00%.
Result 0.00% @ 80.17
We said
Short TSLA at 353.44, take profit 328.55, cut it at 372.57
What happened
TSLA traded 354.08–354.08 and closed 354.08. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.18%.
Result -0.18% @ 354.08
We said
Buy SOXX at 518.93, take profit 544.82, cut it at 499.01
What happened
SOXX traded 519.86–519.86 and closed 519.86. The price never reached our 518.93 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 519.86
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Tesla (TSLA) will underperform the market.
What happened
We said TSLA would be a loser. It closed -5.92% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.
Result -5.92% @ 354.08
We said
A few commodity-linked stocks may lag.
What happened
We said A would be a loser. It closed +0.59% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.
Result +0.59% @ 150.86
We said
A major AI-focused software acquisition will be announced.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
A significant uptick in M&A activity within the industrial sector will be reported.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 1%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Apple (AAPL) will trade flat or up slightly, no more than 0.3%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Amazon (AMZN) will gain more than 0.8%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Eli Lilly (LLY) will finish the day higher by at least 0.6%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Tesla (TSLA) will close down more than 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Delta Air Lines (DAL) will gain at least 0.4%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
IBM (IBM) will finish higher by at least 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Alphabet (GOOGL) (Class A) will advance more than 0.7%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Meta Platforms (META) will gain at least 0.6%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) will outperform the S&P 500 by at least 0.2%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) will close up at least 0.3%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (CL) will trade above its prior close.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will decline by at least 1 basis point.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will trade higher by at least 0.5%.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The exact timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The pace of consumer spending growth for the remainder of the year.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Bitcoin (BTC) will experience a daily trading range of at least 1.5%.
What happened
We said BTC would swing hard (3%+). It moved -1.42%.
Result -1.42% @ 79207.14
We said
Natural Gas (NG) prices will fluctuate by more than 1.0%.
What happened
We said NG would swing hard (3%+). It moved 0.00%.
Result 0.00% @ 2.98
We said
Nvidia (NVDA) will be a top performer.
What happened
We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +0.84% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.
Result +0.84% @ 230.36
We said
Microsoft (MSFT) will see solid gains.
What happened
We said MSFT would be a winner. It closed -2.04% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.
Result -2.04% @ 499.70
We said
Amazon (AMZN) stock will rise.
What happened
We said AMZN would be a winner. It closed -0.15% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.
Result -0.15% @ 258.51
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
AI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.
We said
Technology Earnings Momentum pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.
We said
Corporate Capex pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.
We said
Consumer Spending pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Oil pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
China Economic Data pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Geopolitics pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
FCEL: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
FCEL came in below expectations (-0.66 vs -0.5253 expected). We said beat.
We said
CASY earnings on 2026-09-08: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ABM earnings on 2026-09-08: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
UNFI earnings on 2026-09-08: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
COO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ASO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CHWY earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CNM earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SIG earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
AEO earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
KR earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
RH earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SUNB earnings on 2026-09-09: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ADBE earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (72% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CPRT earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
ORCL earnings on 2026-09-10: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.