S&P 500 Rises 0.3% as Software Rebound Continues

We said

SPX up 0.30% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.38%, closing at 7718.60. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.38% @ 7718.60

We said

NDX up 0.50% (61% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.21%, closing at 29544.15. Right direction, off by 0.29 percentage points on size.

Result +0.21% @ 29544.15

We said

DJI up 0.20% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.51%, closing at 53414.25. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.51% @ 53414.25

We said

RUT up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT rose 0.25%, closing at 2975.65. Right direction, off by 0.15 percentage points on size.

Result +0.25% @ 2975.65

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 1.47%, closing at 14.53. We called the wrong direction.

Result +1.47% @ 14.53

We said

DXY down 0.10% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY rose 0.16%, closing at 99.16. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.16% @ 99.16

We said

US10Y down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.46%, closing at 4.78. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.46% @ 4.78

We said

CL up 0.30% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

CL fell 0.05%, closing at 91.25. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.06% @ 91.25

We said

GC down 0.30% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC fell 0.32%, closing at 4477.30. Right direction, off by 0.02 percentage points on size.

Result -0.32% @ 4477.30

We said

SI down 0.50% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI fell 0.30%, closing at 66.78. Right direction, off by 0.20 percentage points on size.

Result -0.30% @ 66.78

We said

BTC up 1.00% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC fell 1.87%, closing at 79751.76. We called the wrong direction.

Result -1.87% @ 79751.76

We said

ETH up 1.20% (57% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH fell 2.19%, closing at 2453.10. We called the wrong direction.

Result -2.19% @ 2453.10

We said

NG up 0.00% (50% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 0.93%, closing at 2.94. Right direction, off by 0.93 percentage points on size.

Result +0.93% @ 2.94

We said

Buy MSFT at 510.12, take profit 527.11, cut it at 497.05

What happened

MSFT traded 499.36–511.00 and closed 499.70. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.04%.

Result -2.04% @ 499.70

We said

Buy NVDA at 228.45, take profit 240.44, cut it at 219.23

What happened

NVDA traded 229.63–234.76 and closed 230.36. The price never reached our 228.45 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 230.36

We said

Buy NOW at 145.59, take profit 156.48, cut it at 137.22

What happened

NOW traded 138.80–145.20 and closed 141.26. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -2.97%.

Result -2.97% @ 141.26

We said

Buy AVGO at 357.16, take profit 376.09, cut it at 342.61

What happened

AVGO traded 353.70–360.05 and closed 357.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.21%.

Result +0.21% @ 357.89

We said

Buy CRM at 263.76, take profit 282.33, cut it at 249.48

What happened

CRM traded 257.82–263.60 and closed 259.23. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.72%.

Result -1.72% @ 259.23

We said

Buy IBM at 234.71, take profit 243.86, cut it at 227.67

What happened

IBM traded 231.68–236.17 and closed 234.89. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.08%.

Result +0.08% @ 234.89

We said

Buy ADBE at 282.35, take profit 298.13, cut it at 270.21

What happened

ADBE traded 263.96–275.91 and closed 266.51. It hit our 270.21 exit first — the trade lost -4.30%.

Result -4.30% @ 266.51

We said

Buy LLY at 1159.6, take profit 1218.39, cut it at 1114.38

What happened

LLY traded 1138.31–1158.43 and closed 1149.36. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.88%.

Result -0.88% @ 1149.36

We said

Short TSLA at 376.37, take profit 353.44, cut it at 394.01

What happened

TSLA traded 351.32–364.69 and closed 354.08. The price never reached our 376.37 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.

Result 0.00% @ 354.08

We said

Buy XSW at 207.77, take profit 214.75, cut it at 202.39

What happened

XSW traded 201.14–203.92 and closed 202.99. It hit our 202.39 exit first — the trade lost -2.59%.

Result -2.59% @ 202.99

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) is poised for a strong day.

What happened

We said NOW would be a winner. It closed -2.97% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result -2.97% @ 141.26

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) will close up at least 1.0% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will close up at least 0.8% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oracle (ORCL) will close up at least 0.6% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

International Business Machines (IBM) will close up at least 0.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Adobe (ADBE) will close up at least 0.9% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

ServiceNow (NOW) will close up at least 1.2% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will close up at least 0.6% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will close up at least 0.8% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Tesla (TSLA) will close down at least 0.5% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Eli Lilly (LLY) will close up at least 0.4% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) will close up at least 0.7% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) will close up at least 0.9% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will fall below 4.45% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The VIX will close below 13.00 today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) is likely to be a top performer.

What happened

We said NVDA would be a winner. It closed +0.84% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result +0.84% @ 230.36

We said

Broadcom (AVGO) should see significant gains.

What happened

We said AVGO would be a winner. It closed +0.21% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result +0.21% @ 357.89

We said

Tesla (TSLA) is likely to underperform.

What happened

We said TSLA would be a loser. It closed -5.92% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result -5.92% @ 354.08

We said

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) may see declines.

What happened

We said OXY would be a loser. It closed -0.94% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result -0.94% @ 60.04

We said

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) could face pressure.

What happened

We said ADM would be a loser. It closed +0.27% while the S&P 500 did -0.38%.

Result +0.27% @ 84.61

We said

BYSI may experience significant price swings.

What happened

We said BYSI would swing hard (3%+). It moved -0.63%.

Result -0.63% @ 0.62

We said

KNOP is likely to be highly volatile.

What happened

We said KNOP would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.42%.

Result +1.43% @ 11.39

We said

PAXS shares could see wide price ranges.

What happened

We said PAXS would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.28%.

Result +1.28% @ 14.24

We said

The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) could surprisingly rise above 4.55% today.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Apple (AAPL) could announce a surprise new AI hardware initiative.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Crude oil (CL) could unexpectedly fall below $82 per barrel.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The exact scale of enterprise AI spending beyond the largest cloud providers.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The sustained trajectory of inflation and its impact on consumer spending.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The potential for further consolidation in the semiconductor industry.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Enterprise Software Spending pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

AI Infrastructure Build-out pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Corporate Earnings Expectations pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

US 10-Year Treasury Yield pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending Trends pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

Geopolitical Stability pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

Oil Prices pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Cryptocurrency Sentiment pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. That went against the call.

We said

Manufacturing Output Data pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.38%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

KNOP: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

KNOP came in below expectations (0.078 vs 0.3101 expected). We said beat.

We said

PAXS earnings on 2026-09-04: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

BYSI: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

BYSI came in in line with expectations (-0.05 vs — expected). We said beat.

We said

HURC earnings on 2026-09-04: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

ARDC earnings on 2026-09-04: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

BDJ earnings on 2026-09-04: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.