The Report Card · Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Software Earnings Lift Nasdaq 0.5%
Enterprise software guidance from Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Dell (DELL) points to continued spending momentum, putting the odds of a green Nasdaq 100 close at 63%.
Accuracy
37%
Correct
17/46
Brier score
0.231
lower is better
By Category
2/13
15% accuracy
2/9
22% accuracy
5/9
56% accuracy
1/7
14% accuracy
7/8
88% accuracy
Forecasts — what we said vs. what happened
We said
SPX up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)
What happened
SPX fell 0.71%, closing at 7631.47. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.71% @ 7631.47
We said
NDX up 0.50% (58% odds it rises)
What happened
NDX fell 1.29%, closing at 29077.22. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.29% @ 29077.22
We said
DJI up 0.20% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
DJI fell 0.79%, closing at 52766.88. We called the wrong direction.
Result -0.79% @ 52766.88
We said
RUT up 0.10% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
RUT fell 1.23%, closing at 2920.13. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.23% @ 2920.13
We said
VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)
What happened
VIX rose 9.52%, closing at 16.34. We called the wrong direction.
Result +9.52% @ 16.34
We said
DXY down 0.10% (49% odds it rises)
What happened
DXY rose 0.25%, closing at 99.68. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.25% @ 99.68
We said
US10Y down 0.50% (47% odds it rises)
What happened
US10Y rose 0.80%, closing at 4.80. We called the wrong direction.
Result +0.80% @ 4.80
We said
CL up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)
What happened
CL rose 5.78%, closing at 90.72. Right direction, off by 4.98 percentage points on size.
Result +5.78% @ 90.72
We said
GC up 0.50% (53% odds it rises)
What happened
GC fell 1.27%, closing at 4374.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.27% @ 4374.70
We said
SI up 0.70% (54% odds it rises)
What happened
SI fell 2.30%, closing at 64.70. We called the wrong direction.
Result -2.30% @ 64.70
We said
BTC up 0.50% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
BTC fell 1.54%, closing at 77338.97. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.54% @ 77338.97
We said
ETH up 0.60% (52% odds it rises)
What happened
ETH fell 1.92%, closing at 2419.41. We called the wrong direction.
Result -1.92% @ 2419.41
We said
NG up 0.40% (51% odds it rises)
What happened
NG rose 0.41%, closing at 2.95. Right direction, off by 0.01 percentage points on size.
Result +0.41% @ 2.95
Trades — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Buy PANW at 382.13, take profit 411.52, cut it at 359.54
What happened
PANW traded 357.27–375.92 and closed 362.09. It hit our 359.54 exit first — the trade lost -5.91%.
Result -5.91% @ 362.09
We said
Buy DELL at 456.01, take profit 495.59, cut it at 425.57
What happened
DELL traded 421.89–462.83 and closed 425.00. It hit our 425.57 exit first — the trade lost -6.68%.
Result -6.67% @ 425.00
We said
Buy MDB at 454.39, take profit 490.15, cut it at 426.9
What happened
MDB traded 430.52–448.68 and closed 434.21. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -4.44%.
Result -4.44% @ 434.21
We said
Buy SNOW at 331.67, take profit 351.41, cut it at 316.5
What happened
SNOW traded 317.82–328.76 and closed 319.80. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -3.58%.
Result -3.58% @ 319.80
We said
Buy CRDO at 226.41, take profit 253.57, cut it at 203.77
What happened
CRDO traded 206.12–221.74 and closed 206.63. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -8.74%.
Result -8.74% @ 206.63
We said
Short NIO at 4.28, take profit 4.08, cut it at 4.43
What happened
NIO traded 3.99–4.18 and closed 4.06. The price never reached our 4.28 entry, so there was no trade to win or lose.
Result 0.00% @ 4.06
We said
Buy XLC at 111.46, take profit 113.96, cut it at 109.54
What happened
XLC traded 110.31–111.63 and closed 110.88. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.52%.
Result -0.52% @ 110.88
We said
Buy XLK at 186.28, take profit 191.61, cut it at 182.18
What happened
XLK traded 182.63–184.92 and closed 183.64. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.42%.
Result -1.42% @ 183.64
We said
Short M at 21.96, take profit 20.87, cut it at 22.8
What happened
M traded 21.75–22.42 and closed 21.93. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.14%.
Result +0.14% @ 21.93
We said
Buy CL=F at 86.14, take profit 90.93, cut it at 82.46
What happened
CL=F traded 86.13–90.97 and closed 90.72. It hit our 90.93 take-profit — the trade worked, +5.56%.
Result +5.56% @ 90.72
Predictions — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 3% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Dell Technologies (DELL) will close up at least 2% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) will close above its 50-day moving average.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Nio (NIO) will close down at least 1% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
MongoDB (MDB) will close up at least 2% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
GitLab (GTLB) will close up at least 3% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Technology sector will be the strongest performing sector today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Medtronic (MDT) will close flat or down today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Macy's (M) will close down at least 1% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The US 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) will decline by at least 3 basis points.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Oil (CL) will close up at least 0.5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Communication Services sector will outperform the Consumer Discretionary sector.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Silver (SI) will close up more than Gold (GC) today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The S&P 500 (SPX) will trade above its opening price for at least 80% of the session.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
CRDO will close up at least 5% today.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 3% today.
What happened
We said PANW would be a winner. It closed -5.24% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result -5.24% @ 362.09
We said
Dell Technologies (DELL) will close up at least 2% today.
What happened
We said DELL would be a winner. It closed -6.80% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result -6.80% @ 425.00
We said
MongoDB (MDB) will close up at least 2% today.
What happened
We said MDB would be a winner. It closed -4.23% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result -4.23% @ 434.21
We said
Nio (NIO) will close down at least 1% today.
What happened
We said NIO would be a loser. It closed -4.02% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result -4.02% @ 4.06
We said
Macy's (M) will close down at least 1% today.
What happened
We said M would be a loser. It closed -0.14% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result -0.14% @ 21.93
We said
Medtronic (MDT) will close flat or down today.
What happened
We said MDT would be a loser. It closed +1.53% while the S&P 500 did -0.71%.
Result +1.53% @ 92.04
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will see intraday price swings of over 5%.
What happened
We said PANW would swing hard (3%+). It moved -5.24%.
Result -5.24% @ 362.09
We said
Dell Technologies (DELL) will have an intraday range exceeding 4%.
What happened
We said DELL would swing hard (3%+). It moved -6.80%.
Result -6.80% @ 425.00
We said
Nio (NIO) will experience intraday price fluctuations of at least 6%.
What happened
We said NIO would swing hard (3%+). It moved -4.02%.
Result -4.02% @ 4.06
We said
MongoDB (MDB) reports a surprise 15% year-over-year revenue growth.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Macy's (M) announces a dividend cut due to ongoing sales weakness.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) provides full-year revenue guidance above $8 billion.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The impact of the new China manufacturing PMI on global supply chains is unclear.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The long-term effects of AI integration on enterprise software pricing are undefined.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
We said
The Federal Reserve's stance on future rate hikes remains ambiguous despite recent data.
What happened
Written call — not scored automatically.
Drivers — what we said vs. what happened
We said
Earnings Season pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
AI Spending pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
Enterprise Software Demand pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
China Manufacturing PMI pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
Consumer Spending pushes the market down
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That matched the call.
We said
Treasuries pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
Oil Demand pushes the market up
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. That went against the call.
We said
Inflation pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Employment pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
We said
Fed Policy Outlook pushes the market either way
What happened
The S&P 500 finished down -0.71%. The day was too flat to call this either way.
Earnings — what we said vs. what happened
We said
AVGO earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
SNOW earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
DELL: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
DELL came in above expectations (4.86 vs 2.9985 expected). We said beat.
We said
PANW: we said beat (71% odds of a beat)
What happened
PANW came in above expectations (1.02 vs 0.9959 expected). We said beat.
We said
NIO: we said beat (56% odds of a beat)
What happened
NIO came in below expectations (-0.268904 vs -0.2124 expected). We said beat.
We said
MDB: we said beat (69% odds of a beat)
What happened
MDB came in above expectations (1.9 vs 1.6221 expected). We said beat.
We said
M: we said beat (54% odds of a beat)
What happened
M came in above expectations (0.13 vs 0.0264 expected). We said beat.
We said
MDT: we said beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
MDT came in above expectations (1.45 vs 1.4017 expected). We said beat.
We said
GTLB: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
GTLB came in above expectations (0.24 vs 0.1831 expected). We said beat.
We said
CRDO: we said beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
CRDO came in above expectations (1.2 vs 1.1874 expected). We said beat.
We said
HPE earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
NTAP earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
GOLD earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
FIVE earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
LULU earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
DOCU earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CIEN earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
CPB earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (62% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
MOMO earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (60% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
We said
VSXY earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (51% odds of a beat)
What happened
Hasn't reported yet.
Scoring is deterministic and runs after every US market close. End-of-day prices from Yahoo Finance; earnings actuals from Finnhub. Free-text predictions (top-15, surprise, uncertain) are left for editorial review and not counted in the overall grade.