Software Rises, Nasdaq 100 Gains 0.6% on AI Cloud Deals

We said

SPX up 0.30% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

SPX fell 0.33%, closing at 7686.14. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.33% @ 7686.14

We said

NDX up 0.60% (58% odds it rises)

What happened

NDX rose 0.08%, closing at 29456.97. Right direction, off by 0.52 percentage points on size.

Result +0.08% @ 29456.97

We said

DJI up 0.20% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

DJI fell 0.70%, closing at 53185.90. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.70% @ 53185.90

We said

RUT up 0.10% (51% odds it rises)

What happened

RUT fell 0.54%, closing at 2956.45. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.54% @ 2956.45

We said

VIX down 2.00% (41% odds it rises)

What happened

VIX rose 3.40%, closing at 14.92. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.40% @ 14.92

We said

DXY up 0.10% (53% odds it rises)

What happened

DXY fell 0.26%, closing at 99.44. We called the wrong direction.

Result -0.26% @ 99.44

We said

US10Y up 0.05% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

US10Y rose 0.81%, closing at 4.76. Right direction, off by 0.76 percentage points on size.

Result +0.81% @ 4.76

We said

CL down 0.80% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

CL rose 3.31%, closing at 86.16. We called the wrong direction.

Result +3.31% @ 86.16

We said

GC down 0.40% (47% odds it rises)

What happened

GC rose 0.43%, closing at 4497.20. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.43% @ 4497.20

We said

SI down 0.70% (44% odds it rises)

What happened

SI rose 0.31%, closing at 67.21. We called the wrong direction.

Result +0.31% @ 67.20

We said

BTC up 0.70% (54% odds it rises)

What happened

BTC rose 0.75%, closing at 78829.70. Right direction, off by 0.05 percentage points on size.

Result +0.75% @ 78829.70

We said

ETH up 0.80% (55% odds it rises)

What happened

ETH rose 0.61%, closing at 2472.78. Right direction, off by 0.19 percentage points on size.

Result +0.61% @ 2472.78

We said

NG up 0.60% (56% odds it rises)

What happened

NG rose 1.35%, closing at 2.93. Right direction, off by 0.75 percentage points on size.

Result +1.35% @ 2.93

We said

Buy DELL at 456.24, take profit 496.8, cut it at 425.04

What happened

DELL traded 456.01–474.14 and closed 456.01. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.05%.

Result -0.05% @ 456.01

We said

Buy PANW at 371.59, take profit 400.69, cut it at 349.2

What happened

PANW traded 370.00–383.73 and closed 382.13. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +2.84%.

Result +2.84% @ 382.13

We said

Buy MSFT at 513.01, take profit 528.86, cut it at 500.83

What happened

MSFT traded 506.40–512.19 and closed 507.29. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -1.11%.

Result -1.11% @ 507.29

We said

Buy SNOW at 328, take profit 347.78, cut it at 312.79

What happened

SNOW traded 323.04–332.65 and closed 331.43. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +1.05%.

Result +1.05% @ 331.43

We said

Buy CRM at 256.45, take profit 274.17, cut it at 242.83

What happened

CRM traded 254.80–262.27 and closed 257.54. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.43%.

Result +0.42% @ 257.54

We said

Buy IBM at 235.59, take profit 245.56, cut it at 227.93

What happened

IBM traded 232.18–235.94 and closed 233.87. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a loss of -0.73%.

Result -0.73% @ 233.87

We said

Short NIO at 4.37, take profit 4.16, cut it at 4.53

What happened

NIO traded 4.23–4.41 and closed 4.23. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +3.20%.

Result +3.20% @ 4.23

We said

Short M at 22.01, take profit 20.89, cut it at 22.87

What happened

M traded 21.67–22.08 and closed 21.96. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.23%.

Result +0.23% @ 21.96

We said

Short SAIC at 127.91, take profit 121.83, cut it at 132.58

What happened

SAIC traded 127.10–142.66 and closed 128.22. It hit our 132.58 exit first — the trade lost -3.65%.

Result -3.65% @ 128.22

We said

Short FCX at 76.26, take profit 71.74, cut it at 79.74

What happened

FCX traded 74.89–77.01 and closed 75.74. Neither the take-profit nor the exit was hit; holding to the close was a gain of +0.68%.

Result +0.68% @ 75.74

We said

Dell Technologies (DELL) will close up at least 1.5% after strong earnings guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up at least 2% due to increased cybersecurity spending.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Microsoft (MSFT) shares will rise by at least 0.8% on sustained cloud momentum.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nvidia (NVDA) will see shares increase by 1% as AI infrastructure demand persists.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Salesforce (CRM) will trade higher by 1% after announcing new AI integrations.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Adobe (ADBE) shares will gain 0.7% on optimism for its AI content creation tools.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

SAIC (SAIC) will close down less than 5% despite missing revenue estimates.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Medtronic (MDT) will see its stock rise by 0.5% after a positive analyst note.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Nio (NIO) shares will fall by at least 3% on ongoing margin pressure.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Macy's (M) will close flat to slightly down, moving less than 1%.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Amazon (AMZN) shares will increase by 0.7% on robust e-commerce and AWS growth.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

IBM (IBM) stock will rise by 0.6% on new hybrid cloud contracts.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Alphabet (GOOGL) will be up 0.9% on strong advertising revenue forecasts.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Netflix (NFLX) will gain 0.5% as subscriber growth remains steady.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The US10Y yield will increase by 2 basis points.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Dell Technologies (DELL) will be the session's top performer among major tech names, gaining 2.5%.

What happened

We said DELL would be a winner. It closed -0.05% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result -0.05% @ 456.01

We said

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) will close up 2% on strong cybersecurity demand.

What happened

We said PANW would be a winner. It closed +2.84% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result +2.84% @ 382.13

We said

Shopify (SHOP) will gain 1.8% on positive analyst commentary regarding e-commerce trends.

What happened

We said SHOP would be a winner. It closed -3.62% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result -3.62% @ 147.37

We said

Nio (NIO) will decline by at least 4% due to weak margins.

What happened

We said NIO would be a loser. It closed -3.20% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result -3.20% @ 4.23

We said

Macy's (M) will fall by 1.2% as retail struggles continue.

What happened

We said M would be a loser. It closed -0.23% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result -0.23% @ 21.96

We said

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) will lose 1.5% as copper prices weaken.

What happened

We said FCX would be a loser. It closed -0.93% while the S&P 500 did -0.33%.

Result -0.93% @ 75.74

We said

SAIC (SAIC) shares will move by more than 4% following its earnings report.

What happened

We said SAIC would swing hard (3%+). It moved +1.79%.

Result +1.79% @ 128.22

We said

Nio (NIO) will experience a price swing exceeding 5% after its earnings call.

What happened

We said NIO would swing hard (3%+). It moved -3.20%.

Result -3.20% @ 4.23

We said

GitLab (GTLB) shares will move by more than 3% in after-hours trading on earnings.

What happened

We said GTLB would swing hard (3%+). It moved +3.72%.

Result +3.72% @ 46.54

We said

SAIC (SAIC) will close flat despite a mixed earnings report.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The VIX (VIX) will drop below 12.00, signaling extreme calm.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Gold (GC) will unexpectedly rise by 0.5% despite a stronger dollar.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Macy's (M) performance will be highly dependent on the tone of its future guidance.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

The impact of any Federal Reserve speaker comments on Monday will be minimal.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

Oil (CL) price action will be unclear due to conflicting supply and demand signals.

What happened

Written call — not scored automatically.

We said

AI pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That went against the call.

We said

Enterprise Software pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That went against the call.

We said

Earnings Reports pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Manufacturing Data pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Treasuries pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That went against the call.

We said

Consumer Spending pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Fed Commentary pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

Oil pushes the market down

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That matched the call.

We said

Dollar pushes the market up

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. That went against the call.

We said

Crypto Regulation pushes the market either way

What happened

The S&P 500 finished down -0.33%. The day was too flat to call this either way.

We said

SAIC: we said beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

SAIC came in above expectations (3.01 vs 2.3546 expected). We said beat.

We said

CANG earnings on 2026-08-31: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

PXS earnings on 2026-08-31: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Results aren't posted yet, so this could not be judged.

We said

DELL earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (71% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NIO earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (51% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

PANW earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (70% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

M earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (56% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MDT earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GTLB earnings on 2026-09-01: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

AVGO earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

SNOW earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (69% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

HPE earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (65% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

NTAP earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (66% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

GOLD earnings on 2026-09-02: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

LULU earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (67% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CIEN earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (64% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

CPB earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (61% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.

We said

MOMO earnings on 2026-09-03: we leaned beat (59% odds of a beat)

What happened

Hasn't reported yet.